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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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I'm a bit confused reading the model thread. Last week when it was all doom and gloom, the WO forecast (which I think is based on the GFS) was showing settled, dry, relatively sunny conditions for London with stable 21-23c temps.

Now the mood in the model output thread is on the up, including examples of GFS runs, I check the forecast for London to find it very unsettled, many days only in the high teens with clouds and rain?!

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

Posted Images

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Summer Indices

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169

2019 169 (up to 5th June)


1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174

How are these calculated? 

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42 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The Summer index is 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)] 

So as an example for Heathrow...

2018: 345

2007: 244

2019 to 5th June: 231

The average summer: 292

 

Edited by B87
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Right so we’ve just had a massive thunderstorm in Wigan, absolutely lashing it down for about 15-20 minutes, the garden has flooded, and we already had average rainfall. People seriously need to stop presuming that everywhere needs rain, Scotland is even worse. This is probably gonna be one of the crappest summers of the 2010’s in my opinion, maybe as bad as 2012. Northern Blocking seems prominent. I just hope there’s no 2007 style floods 

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How can anyone on here accurately predict a terrible summer,when I’ve always understood the weather can’t be accurately predicted more than one week in advance?.Some weather sites say 24 or 25 for a day next week,then you look at the same site a few hours later and it’s changed to 14-15 with rain!.Do these weather sites guess the weather?.

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I think from recent experience, with temperatures hovering around 17-20 by day in the London region, this could well be a poor summer. The second outcome would be an improvement later on, with a much sunnier and warmer August. 

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Interesting spell of extremely wet weather coming up next 48 hours and then very windy by Saturday still very wet north wales.

Next week chilly N/NE wind huge block to the NW massive Greenland high and Maundy minimum kicking in.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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5 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

Right so we’ve just had a massive thunderstorm in Wigan, absolutely lashing it down for about 15-20 minutes, the garden has flooded, and we already had average rainfall. People seriously need to stop presuming that everywhere needs rain, Scotland is even worse. This is probably gonna be one of the crappest summers of the 2010’s in my opinion, maybe as bad as 2012. Northern Blocking seems prominent. I just hope there’s no 2007 style floods 

It’s got the potential at the moment. It’s such a shame, I love summer and winter as my 2 favourite seasons, so the get a really bad summer after a terrible winter would be a kick in the teeth. I guess after last year we were spoiled.

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11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While I spoke positively a while ago tonight’s 12z output is something to save, it is truly horrific and on par with 2012.

Just watched the bbc extended forecast and they are going with the high being more dominant than the low, and drier too....I’d say unsettled was the form horse personally, but we will see. Let’s see how this ages in the next couple of days.

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These are troubled times alright, with a lot of above-normal Arctic heights playing havoc with the mid-latitude weather patterns.

I'll be watching the heat to the east closely next week, as I'm not convinced by how far north the models are taking the trough that's located to our SE on Monday.

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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

While I spoke positively a while ago tonight’s 12z output is something to save, it is truly horrific and on par with 2012.

It’s so bad it’s really quite interesting!!

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4 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Interesting spell of extremely wet weather coming up next 48 hours and then very windy by Saturday still very wet north wales.

Next week chilly N/NE wind huge block to the NW massive Greenland high and Maundy minimum kicking in.

Maundy minimum ..!! 

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53 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Maundy minimum ..!! 

What are the odds that the block will be gone by December and the Euro/Azores slug will be back....?

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Any hopes I had for this summer are rapidly being eroded. 

Yes, of course, it’s extremely early days and anything can happen. But I do get the overwhelming feeling this will be a wet and unsettled summer. Virtually none of the signs are good. 

Despite the fact that models are largely useless long term, you do see trends, and none of the trends are good. 

This time last year we saw constant high jet streams with stable air masses. This year, it’s the total opposite. 

We will undoubtedly get the odd few nice days, with warm plumes thrown in, but I would bet a tidy sum on this summer ending up as very much one to forget. 

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Could be wrong of course but the GFS maintains trade winds around the dateline, no substantial change in pattern likely while that persists (Nina signal).

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Edited by summer blizzard
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I'm so glad I'm travelling to various places over the next 4-5 months where there is actually some sun! The thought of patterns like this lasting into the summer is quite depressing - even June 2007 was better than this!

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4 hours ago, Azazel said:

Beautiful January morning out there. Estate is already underwater.

Don’t mind some rain but 13C in June in London is very poor. 

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On 02/06/2019 at 22:02, stainesbloke said:

Is it unpleasant when in work clothes or in uniform, which I do understand but otherwise it’s so easy to cool down with a cold shower and a fan, or air conditioning if affordable. Which many people on here should install in their homes. Parts of the UK have had a single warm day and the depressing whining goes on repeat, like a broken record. 

Some (many?) would struggle, given wage stagnation to afford both the up-front costs of A/C units and the electricity bills that would result from their use.

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11 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Some (many?) would struggle, given wage stagnation to afford both the up-front costs of A/C units and the electricity bills that would result from their use.

Yes, no doubt some would struggle. But I guess it’s about priorities, like much in life. If heat is so awful and unhealthy, like some make out, then the money would be found to get some sort of system installed, even for one room, which isn’t expensive. A decent mobile cooling unit costs around £300, not thousands. 

Edited by stainesbloke
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