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SunnyDazee

Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I don't think I can remember a summer with so many days with unexpected amounts of rain.

So many times there seem to have been dry days forecast even a day or two beforehand, and then all of a sudden rain shows up on the forecast at the last minute.

Also rain lingering when there is meant to be just a bit of drizzle in the morning- but it doesn't clear!

It has been infuriating at times. Today is another day like that around these parts.

Same here, dry and bright forecast, started tipping it down early morning then continued for hours. Another really poor day.

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Posted (edited)

Weather Rubbish here today,rain when I left at 6 am to find a fine with some sun Sheffield only to return early afternoon to rain which persisted for most of the afternoon.This month is almost certain to make my 'poor' list .Yet another Summer like so many in the last decade that have been very disappointing at best!

Edited by hillbilly

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On 19/08/2019 at 15:12, cheeky_monkey said:

ill go with these readings..simply because they reflect what i have recorded in my location...July was -2.5c below normal was very wet and dull..the NOAA one says it was average which it was not...weather bell says it was 2c below normal which is correct.

The clue is in the maps.

The weatherbell is taking the 1981-2010 average 30 year average which should be much lower than the NOAA, which is using the 1900-2000 average (to show the difference in the longer term to what it has previously been). Both show an above average world, but what is REALLY clear is how much warmer it has been this July compared to the very long term average globally. To be 1c above the long term average is quite shocking actually, especially given the distinct lack of any strong El Nino forcings in play.

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1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

Weather Rubbish here today,rain when I left at 6 am to find a fine with some sun Sheffield only to return early afternoon to rain which persisted for most of the afternoon.This month is almost certain to make my 'poor' list .Yet another Summer like so many in the last decade that have been very disappointing at best!

Too right. 2019 will be added to the poor summers of the 2010s. 

This decade will be remembered for poorer summers, with some good ones. 2013, 14 and 18 being the really good ones. 

This summer has been poor, despite the late hot blast we will be getting this coming weekend. 

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13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Too right. 2019 will be added to the poor summers of the 2010s. 

This decade will be remembered for poorer summers, with some good ones. 2013, 14 and 18 being the really good ones. 

This summer has been poor, despite the late hot blast we will be getting this coming weekend. 

2014 here was not good at all,average at best,2013 had a great July but August was a cloudfest.A bit different to the 80's where 1983,1984 and 1989 were better than every summer in the last 24 years except 2018!

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Updated heatwave warning

Level 3

  • East of England

Level 2

  • South East England
  • East Midlands
  • Yorkshire and the Humber

Level 1 - No heatwave warning

  • London
  • Southwest England
  • West Midlands
  • Northwest England
  • Northeast England

Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 08:55 on Fri 23 Aug 2019

There is a 90 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Saturday and 0900 on Monday in parts of England.

High pressure will build across England, bringing very warm or hot conditions to many parts of the country during Saturday and Sunday. Highest temperatures look to be across the eastern England, with western parts turning less hot Sunday. Into Monday, fresher air is now expected to gradually move eastwards across the country, although it will remain very warm for some eastern parts.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

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Looking much better for my area for the bank holiday weekend,gone are those high 20's temps,in coming low to mid 20's much more usable,not bad at all.

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18 hours ago, kold weather said:

The clue is in the maps.

The weatherbell is taking the 1981-2010 average 30 year average which should be much lower than the NOAA, which is using the 1900-2000 average (to show the difference in the longer term to what it has previously been). Both show an above average world, but what is REALLY clear is how much warmer it has been this July compared to the very long term average globally. To be 1c above the long term average is quite shocking actually, especially given the distinct lack of any strong El Nino forcings in play.

You mean Weatherbell's ANOMALY should be lower than NOAA's since its average covers a later time range and so is higher as one might expect. I think most here will already understand this point and I allow for it when comparing. I think cheeky_monkey's point still stands because of how far out his own observation is from NOAA, at 2.5C . NOAA is overreading for his location by a lot more than the difference between NOAA and Weatherbell averages.

The other discrepancies I pointed out still stand. NOAA shows the Congos and Vietnam as record heat when Weatherbell says they were lower than average for 1981-2010. They clearly can't both be correct. I'd generally choose Weatherbell over NOAA. I have often found dicrepancies in the past and my experience is that I've never been able to fault Weatherbell but NOAA sometimes seems to have one or two places a bit on the warm side so I tend to feel more comfortable with Weatherbell's charts and take NOAA with a small pinch of salt - not that I conclude that Weatherbell must always be right. It does make me wonder what the error ranges are for satellite models.

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14 minutes ago, Aleman said:

 

The other discrepancies I pointed out still stand. NOAA shows the Congos and Vietnam as record heat when Weatherbell says they were lower than average for 1981-2010. They clearly can't both be correct. I'd generally choose Weatherbell over NOAA. I have often found dicrepancies in the past and my experience is that I've never been able to fault Weatherbell but NOAA sometimes seems to have one or two places a bit on the warm side so I tend to feel more comfortable with Weatherbell's charts and take NOAA with a small pinch of salt - not that I conclude that Weatherbell must always be right. It does make me wonder what the error ranges are for satellite models.

Yeah there are often differences.

FWIW having done a few site comprasions between the average and the actual temps in central Africa that recorded below average according to that NCEP weatherbell chart (admittiedly not too many sites) but having looked at them for Congo and CAR and RoC but I'd guess the truth is in the middle but skewed more towards NOAA being correct, certainly Bangui was well above average, whilst the NCEP chart shows below average, which is 100% wrong for at least that site and therefore likely that section of the country.

Still what I think is clear is July 2019 was well above normal on a global scale (0.3c above the 81-10 average is pretty impressive, especially as nearly none of that was ENSO induced and for it to be the warmest month ever or 2nd warmest, without ANY major El nino forcing is quite the eye opener to me!)

 

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4 hours ago, kold weather said:

Yeah there are often differences.

FWIW having done a few site comprasions between the average and the actual temps in central Africa that recorded below average according to that NCEP weatherbell chart (admittiedly not too many sites) but having looked at them for Congo and CAR and RoC but I'd guess the truth is in the middle but skewed more towards NOAA being correct, certainly Bangui was well above average, whilst the NCEP chart shows below average, which is 100% wrong for at least that site and therefore likely that section of the country.

Still what I think is clear is July 2019 was well above normal on a global scale (0.3c above the 81-10 average is pretty impressive, especially as nearly none of that was ENSO induced and for it to be the warmest month ever or 2nd warmest, without ANY major El nino forcing is quite the eye opener to me!)

 

Seems fair enough.  But why are there often differences? It would make more sense if one ran marginally warmer than another all over, but to have one say very hot in a smallish area that another has as cold while much of the rest is very similar? That seems a bit odd. What could account for it?

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It was much warmer than forecast here today with a max temp of 27.3C. We pretty much managed maximum sunshine too.

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Posted (edited)

This upcoming heatwave is going to feel a little weird to me (especially since we're approaching September), because even though August is still summer I have actually gotten used to it being more of an autumnal month. Just goes to show how bad most of the Augusts have been since 2003.

Edited by Weather Enthusiast91

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2 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

This upcoming heatwave is going to feel a little weird to me (especially since we're approaching September), because even though August is still summer I have actually gotten used to it being more of an autumnal month. Just goes to show how bad most of the Augusts have been since 2003.

The upcoming spell is pretty much the same as the first week of August last year.

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What an absolute coup for the tourist industry. Biggest weekend of the year and near perfect conditions for many areas, throughout the whole weekend as well. 

A real mixed bag of a summer with some proper washouts, some absolute scorchers, some thunderstorms mixed in too.

what probably makes this summer different is how localised many events have been and how some people will say that this summer was excellent, whilst others would have seen this as a properly poor one.

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4 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Nice weather in the SE.  Widely mid 20s, creeping up to the high 20s. 

A blessing for 99% of the population enjoying their bank holiday weekends. The remaining 1% can suck it up for a few days. 😄

like Mark! not keen on bank holidays though, in fact hate 'em, but agree with weather, warm and sunny makes a change, back to normal here Wednesday rain all day

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Can I ask, why are you nowhere to be seen when the weather is generally poor but as soon as the temps creep up, you're straight in here to tell us all for the one thousandth that you don't like it?

This thread is called moans and ramps, isn't it? So what's the big deal?

If you read the "Model output discussion" thread there are dozens of people who keep repeating for the millionth time how awesome it is to break heat records and who constantly root for hotter and hotter temperatures. Why is this behaviour allowed in an "official" thread and frowned upon in a thread called "moans" it's beyond me...  Or only heat lovers are allowed to post?

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Posted (edited)

Finally a day that feels pleasantly mild. Lots of people outside enjoying the conditions today, feels a bit like a weak version of normal summer weather in a country that actually gets summers. Far from being hot and humid or uncomfortable like some would have you believe. 

Edited by Thundershine

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This is the weather that comes to mind when somebody says August, not wet windy Atlantic dross that will no doubt get the upper hand from the equinox onwards.

I suppose the most noticeable aspect of this weather this late is the lack of strength in the sun. It’s approaching 30C but it doesn’t feel scorching like late July or June or indeed early August last year. The different smell in the air was nice this morning though. Summer warmth rather than hints of autumn.

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2 minutes ago, mathematician said:

1: This thread is called moans and ramps, isn't it? So what's the big deal?

2: If you read the "Model output discussion" thread there are dozens of people who keep repeating for the millionth time how awesome it is to break heat records and who constantly root for hotter and hotter temperatures.

3: Why is this behaviour allowed in an "official" thread and frowned upon in a thread called "moans" it's beyond me...  Or only heat lovers are allowed to post?

1: Big difference between a moan/ramp and purposefully posting to stir a pot.

2: If the model output is showing exactly that scenario, then it is to be expected, within reason. The exact same thing occurs during Winter if extreme cold is likely. If posts are stepping over the line, they will be dealt with.

3: Again, the same thing occurs during Winter. 

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30c here and I can understand if that feels too hot for some, each to their own lol.

Not working or on LT so not bothered tbh. soon be ground frost watch anyway.

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

another very poor GFS for my b'day, wet day with constant rain from the Cheshire Gap

h850t850eu.png

That is IF it turns out to be correct, you may get some rain.

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28 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

That is IF it turns out to be correct, you may get some rain.

Hope EC will be closer

ECM1-192.GIF?24-0

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