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SunnyDazee

Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

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2 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Not quite.The February record was taken this year at the end of the month where the previous record had stood mid month.There were also 4 other dates that were within a degree of the previous record and within 1.5 deg of the new record.The summer maximum however is rather different,there are numerous dates recording above 36 deg with the second highest at 37 deg yet 2003 is an almighty 1.5 deg above that.That reading from 2003 is incredible and it has just been found out today how high that is even in these days of warming..that record may indeed go but is highly unlikely but suggest 40 deg is achievable is laughable.

 

I think the 1.5C extra in the new record is much harder to get in February with the weaker sun, cold SSTs, much shorter days etc

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1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

I think the 1.5C extra in the new record is much harder to get in February with the weaker sun, cold SSTs, much shorter days etc

Not sure about that but I think colder months benefit from the Fohn effect whereas I don't think summer does.Am sure the March record of 25 deg was a result of the Fohn effect at Whitby and Wakefield

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7 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Not sure about that but I think colder months benefit from the Fohn effect whereas I don't think summer does.Am sure the March record of 25 deg was a result of the Fohn effect at Whitby and Wakefield

In the case of the 21.2C at Kew Gardens, I don't the Fohn effect was involved at all.

Yes it can influence high winter temps but it tends to be more between November and January in places like the North Wales coast or Aberdeenshire.

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only 7 weeks or so since we got stuck in that omega high/low and max temp were 9c/10/11c. 

pretty unreal swing in the same quarter of met office season.

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So not to be in the end then, haven't been able to post much today as I was in a workshop at work...I've been saying for a couple of days that Cambridge looked a good bet for the maximum from the models I trust in these situations, but it looks like cloud in the mid to late afternoon has just restricted the temperatures enough for the previous record to hold. Still an impressive days weather, and perhaps one of the takeaways was the wide regional extent of the heat - here in Oxfordshire, Benson reported 36.6C at one point, felt very hot.  

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1 hour ago, Rob K said:

It's not really a coincidence - the hottest air is always going to be the most unstable, and we had 23-24C 850s coming up from the south, which of course triggered convective cloud. I think cloud will usually be the limiting factor in such a set-up.

That’s not always true - 850s were similar across Germany and no storms broke out there. We were just very close to the trough and instability. All about positioning. If everything was 100-200 miles further west I’m sure it would have been less cloudy etc. All immaterial now anyhoo.

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Top temps confirmed? Perhaps August 2003 was a one off, maybe never again, who knows really.

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That’s not always true - 850s were similar across Germany and no storms broke out there. We were just very close to the trough and instability. All about positioning. If everything was 100-200 miles further west I’m sure it would have been less cloudy etc. All immaterial now anyhoo.

Exactly this. To get the hottest temperatures in the UK we need a Spanish plume, which is high risk/high reward. As it requires an area of low pressure out west to pump up the hot air, we’re never too far from instability. 

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Actually looking at the surface pattern, I think some might be justified in feeling a little unlucky that we didn’t break the record. It appears that the surface flow over central parts of the UK became southerly or even south westerly at times as a disturbance ran northwards out of France and into the south west and Wales. This provided the cloud and also cut off the extremely hot flow out of France. The obvious sign is that Writtle. which actually is only around 20 miles from the coastline in terms of today’s wind direction. was almost as hot as the likes of Cambridge and NW London which were far better placed.

ECU1-0.GIF?25-0

Chart added (T0 from this afternoon's ECM)

This disturbance was only going to be seen in the last 24 hours so maybe the extremes shown were possible, but we needed everything to click into place, this didn’t quite happen but it has been an extraordinary day.

probably secondary kudos to the Arpege, that storms trundling through the south east was also picked up a good day or so in advanced from forming mid/late afternoon.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Next week

Unsettled
Rain or showers
Sunny spells
Some uncertainty

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49121299

No detail beyond Tuesday, except to say an upper trough will affect us, more towards western areas. Clearly there is a lot of uncertainty. 

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Lots of people hoping to witness records today but just a little short,however with all the excitement how is the record minimum going as at this rate I will beat it here!

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

20 degrees in Jan coming? wouldn't surprise me at all

If you honestly think that then you really are deluded.

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42 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Lots of people hoping to witness records today but just a little short,however with all the excitement how is the record minimum going as at this rate I will beat it here!

Lots of places still 31C/30C at 9.30pm. Must be a chance.

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12 minutes ago, coldie said:

If you honestly think that then you really are deluded.

That's a little harsh! 18.3C was recorded on the 10th January 1971 in Gwynedd. Is it that impossible of a jump to go 1.7C higher, later in the month as well?

Nothing delusional about it, IMO ? 

Edited by Onding
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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Lots of places still 31C/30C at 9.30pm. Must be a chance.

32.4c in my bedroom now - mind you with no window open - only 20% humidity though - still feels awful.

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4 minutes ago, Onding said:

That's a little harsh! 18.3C was recorded on the 10th January 1971 in Gwynedd. Is it that impossible of a jump to go 1.7C higher, later in the month as well?

Nothing delusional about it, IMO ? 

That was 48 years ago and yes it is impossible.

Edited by coldie

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30 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Timelapse of a historic day, maximum approaching 34C. Even a very loud crash of thunder mid-afternoon

 

Have you got one of those for that ridiculous thunderstorm the other night please?

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Ridiculously hot day (and still is). Sheffield also recorded its hottest ever day at 35.1 degrees

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1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Top temps confirmed? Perhaps August 2003 was a one off, maybe never again, who knows really.

Indeed. When 2003 happened some were adamant it was going to be smashed within a few years. Yet here we are 16 years down the line & the record still stands.....just. Still time this Summer for it to happen but after early-mid August it's going to become increasingly difficult to achieve as we get close to Autumn with the shorter days etc.

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3 minutes ago, Onding said:

That's a little harsh! 18.3C was recorded on the 10th January 1971 in Gwynedd. Is it that impossible of a jump to go 1.7C higher, later in the month as well?

Nothing delusional about it, IMO ? 

1971, that's before records began?

Joking aside temps have fallen, slowly, could the max min be beaten, if you get my southerly drift.

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3 minutes ago, coldie said:

That was 48 years ago and yes it is impossible.

I wonder if forecasters 48 years ago, living in cooler times, thought 18C in January was impossible ?

Let's agree to disagree then ? 

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4 minutes ago, adrianh said:

Ridiculously hot day (and still is). Sheffield also recorded its hottest ever day at 35.1 degrees

I didn't find it too bad, also Sheffield reached 35.6 (metoffice site), not 35.1.

I got heatstroke in France at only 30 degrees 2 weeks ago because of trying to do gardening in the afternoon. But today was fine here. The sun on the continent is way too strong.

 

Edited by Thundershine
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