Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[B87]

Just now, Paul said:

Well below? That's about average for highs for August in the SE and warmer than average in every other part of the country!

The average max for the SE in August (1981-2010) is 21.8c. The average max for England overall is 20.7c.

The average high in August in London is 23.2c.

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, B87 said:

The average high in August in London is 23.2c.

That's one small part of the country, you're getting way too hung up on that in the context of a long range forecast. The forecast is for close to average conditions, so it would stand to reason that should the season play out like that, most places, will see highs close to normal - so if you really want to look at just London, then you can potentially expect it to follow those norms. 

[B87]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

That's one small part of the country, you're getting way too hung up on that in the context of a long range forecast. The forecast is for close to average conditions, so it would stand to reason that should the season play out like that, most places, will see highs close to normal - so if you really want to look at just London, then you can potentially expect it to follow those norms. 

Well an average August would be fine by me, but 1993 and 2007 were not examples of average Augusts.

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, B87 said:

Well an average August would be fine by me, but 1993 and 2007 were not examples of average Augusts.

We'll have to wait and see I guess, Ian has obviously mentioned those years in the context of setup and potentially similar outcomes overall. But is expecting temperatures to be close to normal.

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, B87 said:

Well an average August would be fine by me, but 1993 and 2007 were not examples of average Augusts.

Though August 1969 was actually not at all bad.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Ed Stone
rephrased so as not to create another red herring!

[B87]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Though 1969 was about as good as 1960s' Augusts ever got.

August 1964 was the best August of the 1960s. It was also sunnier than any August since 2005.

July was the only good month in summer 1969.

Edited May 31, 2019 by B87

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

Because the current set of averages is 81-10, and would represent 1991 well as that year was within the average period.

Strange thinking because I could argue why not use the 1971-2000 average as 1991 falls within that period as well. 

There is a better argument still as 1991 follows immediately the last year that makes up the 1961-90 average then why not compared it to the August average of the  30 years previous to it? 

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Augusts 1993 and 2007 were both in the "dry and quite sunny but cool" category at Heathrow.  I expect that if we get similar synoptics in August 2019 it will not be as cool as those two Augusts were (especially as they were rather extreme cases of their type), though cool compared with most recent years.

[Mike Poole]

Interesting summer forecast, Ian, I actually think that what is going to be important as to how this pans out is the next couple of weeks, if we see a shift north in the jetstream then it could portend a hot summer from mid month on, or otherwise if the northern blocking signal is able to persist it could end up being average.  Either way I'm predicting a higher likelihood of thunderstorms than last year or even recent years.  We will see. 

I am taking a break from the model thread until the current uncertainty is resolved, because under that uncertainty, it is even more true that analysing every run is pointless.  Hopefully, a clear signal into summer emerges soon...

Edited May 31, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Unsettled
Spells of rain
Quite cloudy
Some sunshine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/48479219

[B87]

2 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Augusts 1993 and 2007 were both in the "dry and quite sunny but cool" category at Heathrow.  I expect that if we get similar synoptics in August 2019 it will not be as cool as those two Augusts were (especially as they were rather extreme cases of their type), though cool compared with most recent years.

August 1993 was sunny, August 2007 was slightly below average. The July that year was totally pathetic, with a high temp of just 24.0c and ~150 hours of sunshine. August 2007 was the best month that summer but it didn't come close to repairing the damage done in June/July. Augusts in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017 were poor in London, so hopefully something more along the lines of August 2009 or 2012 this year, maxima wise.

My prediction a week or 2 ago was for June to be cool, dry and cloudy; July average; August an abomination.

Jun: 20c/10c, 25mm, 180 hrs

Jul: 24c/14c, 40mm, 215 hrs

Aug: 21c/12c, 80mm, 150 hrs

Edited May 31, 2019 by B87

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

What a load of crap really We have been dealt with next week while the rest of Europe bathes lol its my feeling in a couple off days the models will. Pick up for settled warm weather but like I said last night FI to me is 5 days. Anything longer will change every run. This summer will be like 2019. That's all even you netweather have started quoting it in the summer forecast. Enso like this year. Mjo like that year etc. To me no matter what the background signals are the weather will do what it wants.(last winter) we had favorable signals for cold never happened. I think even the biggest beast of a computer won't predict 3 months weather. It's all guess work. Not every moment of weather is accounted for. So how do we no really what's happening in certain place at a certain time. We have billions millions of stations all over the world and satellites in space. But not every wind event. Drop of rain. Snow. Heat. Etc will ever be accounted for so how can we predict so far ahead. Its never going to happen in my life time. My dad always say wake up in the morning and look out the window. That's the forecast. So tomorrow il wake up and look out of the window and that's my prediction.     Ps can you tell. I'm having a bad lol RANT Over. 

[thestixx]

16 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

What a load of crap really We have been dealt with next week while the rest of Europe bathes lol its my feeling in a couple off days the models will. Pick up for settled warm weather but like I said last night FI to me is 5 days. Anything longer will change every run. This summer will be like 2019. That's all even you netweather have started quoting it in the summer forecast. Enso like this year. Mjo like that year etc. To me no matter what the background signals are the weather will do what it wants.(last winter) we had favorable signals for cold never happened. I think even the biggest beast of a computer won't predict 3 months weather. It's all guess work. Not every moment of weather is accounted for. So how do we no really what's happening in certain place at a certain time. We have billions millions of stations all over the world and satellites in space. But not every wind event. Drop of rain. Snow. Heat. Etc will ever be accounted for so how can we predict so far ahead. Its never going to happen in my life time. My dad always say wake up in the morning and look out the window. That's the forecast. So tomorrow il wake up and look out of the window and that's my prediction.     Ps can you tell. I'm having a bad lol RANT Over. 

There's been lots of high pressure around us this year, Azores, Scandinavian, Euro.... We'll hit the jackpot at some point. 

[Snowyowl9]

So much for the one day heatwave its overcast and now raining lol.

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

So much for the one day heatwave its overcast and now raining lol.

Yes this weekend has downgraded as we got closer to it for the west and north  

[MP-R]

16 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Augusts 1993 and 2007 were both in the "dry and quite sunny but cool" category at Heathrow.  I expect that if we get similar synoptics in August 2019 it will not be as cool as those two Augusts were (especially as they were rather extreme cases of their type), though cool compared with most recent years.

Looking back at my records, although August 2007 was slightly cooler than average, it was always warm here when sunny. The brief hot spell early on brought the maximum of the summer (only 28C), then a fine spell from the 8th-12th coinciding with the Bristol balloon fiesta where 25C was achieved, and another spell around the bank holiday when again 25C was achieved. The coolest period was around the 17th-20th here which was also when most of the little rain that did fall, fell.

I suppose the month could’ve turned out warmer had it not followed such a dire May-July period.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Yes this weekend has downgraded as we got closer to it for the west and north  

yes, noticed it as every model run went by, average Spring day here, no sunshine, odd spot of rain, breezy

[markyo]

Thankfully the mini heatwave this weekend looks to be a non starter,more than happy with that,least i can get things done outside now!

[sundog]

The warmth we had back in feb I thought was a bad sign for this summer. I still hold that belief.

[Summer Sun]

The weather outlook's summer forecast

Quote

 

Summer 2019: Warm and possibly quite wet.

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a warmer than average summer in most of the UK. On balance there is considered to a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall.

Temperature

The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is forecast to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.

Precipitation

Over the three month period precipitation levels are forecast to be between 95% to 115% of the average.

June

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly above average.

July

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly above to above average.

August

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation

Below average.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

26.2c at Heathrow Airport makes it the UKs warmest day of the year so far

[danm]

A hot and sultry 27c here in  London Town. 

[Aleman]

Well, today was supposed to be hotter and dry and tomorrow wet and cool so washing and hedgetrimmers out in the window of opportunity. Guess what .......Mrs went out so I decided to take in washing with grubby hands and then the joys of finishing the job and sweeping up wet trimmings in spotting rain and high humidity - lovely! Fortunately, the Mrs approved on bringing in the washing. Was it dry she said? Well, it was raining when I brought it in so how do I know if it's dry if I was trying not to touch it with grubby hands? She didn't seem to approve of that answer!

[Sir Mim]

Horrible humid day today, fortunately there's a breeze to mix things up a little.  Hoping for cooler fresher weather next week.  

[markyo]

6 minutes ago, Sir Mim said:

Horrible humid day today, fortunately there's a breeze to mix things up a little.  Hoping for cooler fresher weather next week.  

Thankfully that is on the cards. Cooler fresher weather till mid June could also feature...fingers crossed! Thank god no repeat of last year's Summer looks likely!

Edited June 1, 2019 by markyo