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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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Just now, Scorcher said:

Not sure I agree with this, if somewhere like the Netherlands just across the water can smash 40C as it has done today, I see no reason why somewhere in the South East can't manage it. Yes there is the island factor but the effect of the sea is minimal in that part of the country with the sort of flow we've had today.

 

 

Also the NL record of 38.6C stood for several decades. As someone else mentioned, never say never. The world is only getting warmer.

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Not sure I agree with this, if somewhere like the Netherlands just across the water can smash 40C as it has done today, I see no reason why somewhere in the South East can't manage it. Yes there is the island factor but the effect of the sea is minimal in that part of the country with the sort of flow we've had today.

 

 

Netherlands closer to the ridge than the trough - massive factor.

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4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Okay, but Heathrow reached 38C too and there was definitely a lot more cloud there today.

Also, heating would have continued after 4pm with clear skies as it normally does.

And everyone saying 40C will never be reached are talking out of their backsides to be frank. It wasn’t until bloody 1990 that 100F was breached in the UK.

Afternoon all I think Cambridge is the place to beat the record it’s tantalisingly close there, meanwhile here my conservatory reached 42oC I know it’s not relevant to today’s weather however it’s scorchio in there.

 

LO

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1 minute ago, matty007 said:

I think 40c is the absolute limit. Without any cloud, I think it could have been achieved today. I mean, the Synoptics were as fierce as you can possibly get. Uppers were higher than 2003

Not getting 40c I can accept, but 38.5c really should have been breached. 

The fact the 2003 record is still in place when we had higher uppers today and a prime time of the year, is very disappointing from a record point of view 

Seriously some of you on here will never be satisfied...if your expectations are that high you will be disappointed an awful lot. Today has been a remarkable day- the 2nd warmest day on record in the UK in fact and the warmest July day on record.

The other amazing thing today is the extent of the 32C+ temperatures. Across England it is certainly the hottest day as a whole since 2006 at least and in many places since 1990. A huge number of locations have recorded 35C and not just in the south. In my area I'm pretty certain it's the warmest day since 1990.

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1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Seriously some of you on here will never be satisfied...if your expectations are that high you will be disappointed an awful lot. Today has been a remarkable day- the 2nd warmest day on record in the UK in fact and the warmest July day on record.

The other amazing thing today is the extent of the 32C+ temperatures. Across England it is certainly the hottest day as a whole since 2006 at least and in many places since 1990. A huge number of locations have recorded 35C and not just in the south. In my area I'm pretty certain it's the warmest day since 1990.

Even before Cambridge hit 38.1, it was the hottest day in the East of England.  I think heat lovers are as unrealistic as cold/snow lovers on here.  We've just witnessed a truly exceptional event.

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Netherlands closer to the ridge than the trough - massive factor.

Yes and no reason with a slight adjustment why the UK couldn't manage 40C too. It could be decades before we get sufficient uppers again but if we only need a slight improvement on this setup and 40C is definitely possible. As Cheese has mentioned, I'm sure people in the Netherlands were questioning at one point whether 40C was achievable there.

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Speaking as someone who is no fan of hot weather this has been a fascinating day of weather watching.  The speculation was fun but it looks like we won't quite beat that all-time record.  Still, it was a fun old day for us weather watchers.  As for my own temps here in the west midlands it got to 36 in my back garden, so stupidly hot all the same.

 

Now bring on the fresher weather!

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Well if the record hasn't gone by now it's unlikely to do so. Well we made a new record today in old sheffield

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For what it’s worth, with the rate of temperature increase today, 40c was pushing it, even if we hadn’t had this cloud cover. 

If we hadn’t had this late afternoon cloud cover I’m almost certain the 38.5c record would have been beaten (assuming a late reading doesn’t come in). We may have even squeezed a 39c, which incidentally is what both the Beeb and the Met were forecasting as the high today. 

Either way, yes it’s a shame it doesn’t look like we’ve beaten the all time record, but to breach 38c/100f in the UK is still exceptional. I’ve travelled from the suburbs of London into central London and back again today (using the tube) and it is like an oven out there. 

Edited by danm
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I don't want to sound naive but surely it's simple - We saw 38 degree temps today when cloud was a factor. If the cloud stayed off then it probably would have got to 39 and possibly 40. Hence those kind of numbers are not impossible for the UK. 

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I'd take exception to the 1990 comparison. That was a wonderful hot spell even here in the far SW, with temps well into the low 30s. Today has been good but not exceptional here. 2003 whilst living in Derbyshire was good, 1995 to my mind was better here in Devon and for a longer period than this week. 

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6 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

I don't want to sound naive but surely it's simple - We saw 38 degree temps today when cloud was a factor. If the cloud stayed off then it probably would have got to 39 and possibly 40. Hence those kind of numbers are not impossible for the UK. 

Yes but it was the same in 2003 blaming the cloud, cloud is inevitable part of reaching such temperatures like thunder and lightning, the UK rarely gets the prefect day in such a scenario it will always generate instability. Forever now it will be 2003 and 2019 if it wasn't for the cloud.... what if... blah blah blah, it didn't happen because it wasn't meant to.

Edited by NTC
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Just had a very brief light shower now.  Not enough to wet the ground but a few spots of rain falling.  Dry again now though and still just as hot as earlier.  This reminds me a little of that spell in July 2015, with maybe a little less cloud around here.

Edited by Agnostick
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All I can say is down here in the SE we are more regularly getting temperatures into the mid 30’s in summer, and with rising global temperatures I think we will likely get another shot at the all time record sooner rather than later. The fact we’ve had the 20c isotherm breach our shores twice in the space of a few weeks is also pretty exceptional. 

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5 minutes ago, philglossop said:

I'd take exception to the 1990 comparison. That was a wonderful hot spell even here in the far SW, with temps well into the low 30s. Today has been good but not exceptional here. 2003 whilst living in Derbyshire was good, 1995 to my mind was better here in Devon and for a longer period than this week. 

It's right up there with 1990 statistically for many areas and better in the east and South East. It was only very slightly cooler here today than on August 3rd 1990. Today has also been considerably hotter than 1990 for many places in the east.

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1 minute ago, NTC said:

Yes but it was the same in 2003 blaming the cloud, cloud is inevitable part of reaching such temperatures like thunder and lightning, the UK rarely gets the prefect day in such a scenario it will always generate instability. Forever now it will be 2003 and 2019 if it wasn't for the cloud.... what if... blah blah blah, it didn't happen because it wasn't meant to.

Fair enough. We'll just have to wait for the absolute perfect scenario then i guess (which i accept is possible may never happen)

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15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes and no reason with a slight adjustment why the UK couldn't manage 40C too. It could be decades before we get sufficient uppers again but if we only need a slight improvement on this setup and 40C is definitely possible. As Cheese has mentioned, I'm sure people in the Netherlands were questioning at one point whether 40C was achievable there.

Decades!!! Pull the other one scorcher. By that point in time 50c will most likely have been  breached. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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of course 40c can be reached here, it would be now IF the high to our easdt would have held on a little longer, just 24-36 hours, and the atlantic trough was further south and west. the heat was/is there, on the near continent, all we need is the exact right synoptic pattern to give us a gentle southeasterly for 48 hours. thats really isnt much to ask! its well within reason.

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What I would say about today is the weird keen wind which we had under this set up I don't think I have experienced a strong wind in such high temperatures normally the high pressure would cut off the isobars and it would be calm.

The whole scenario was built on weird conditions keen wind, dry air not sticky wet humidity I am grateful it wasn't a carribbean type heat the sahara heat kept it from being totally  unbearable.

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Decades!!! Pull the other one scorcher. By that point in time 50c will most likely have been  breached. 

I don't think it will be decades, I was just saying you never know when we will get uppers of 22/23C again- hopefully next week though! It does make you wonder if we will get another bite at the record this summer with this being the second time we've witnessed almost unprecedented 850 hPa temps.

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5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I don't think it will be decades, I was just saying you never know when we will get uppers of 22/23C again- hopefully next week though! It does make you wonder if we will get another bite at the record this summer with this being the second time we've witnessed almost unprecedented 850 hPa temps.

Hey scorcher.. They always say things come in 3s...good or bad... I'm feeling fairly confident of further plumes. Oh and just to point out to all you guys and gals on here.... The running commentary as been superb, unrivalled probably anywhere in the world... So a big thanks to you all... Until the next time... ?

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