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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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8 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Yes. Amazing day but very very unfortunate to be honest. 

The Arpege was bang on with 40c in my opinion. But the unexpected cloud knocked off a degree or two. 

Couldn’t write it 

I very much doubt the cloud effected temperatures by that much. Perhaps the 38.5 was within reach, but 39-40c I’m not so sure.

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Some unmaned stations can take up to a month to have their recordings verified, so it's possible somewhere has recorded higher than 38.1'C.

38'C in Northolt not long ago.

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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Well, not really. The Arpege, like many others models, would take cloud in to account.

It did take cloud into account, but not to the extent that we had. 

We had a lot more cloud than was showing on most of the models, and forecasts. 

With less cloud, the record certainly would have gone, and 40c maybe. 

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I very much doubt the cloud effected temperatures by that much. Perhaps the 38.5 was within reach, but 39-40c I’m not so sure.

 I mean, if we can still reach 38C despite nuisance cloud coming and going I think 40C with clear skies all day would have been easily achievable.

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

So, what can we deduce from that is, the Arpege wasn't bang on with 40°C?!

Why do people keep being sarcastic with me. 

I am simply making my observations. 

Its not an unrealistic hypothesis to think that without all that cloud cover, we could have easily squeezed another degree or two. 

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2 minutes ago, cheese said:

 I mean, if we can still reach 38C despite nuisance cloud coming and going I think 40C with clear skies all day would have been easily achievable.

Exactly. 

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I don't understand why my post got deleted. This thread is called "moans.." so can I at least say that I do not enjoy this kind of weather? Is this allowed or not? Or is it just for getting excited about the records? 

Because if not I don't even see the point of this thread and of the forum honestly 

 

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1 minute ago, matty007 said:

Why do people keep being sarcastic with me. 

I am simply making my observations. 

Its not an unrealistic hypothesis to think that without all that cloud cover, we could have easily squeezed another degree or two. 

I'm not being sarcastic with you. You were the one that said the Arpege was bang on with 40°C..

Just querying it, that's all.

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1 minute ago, mathematician said:

I don't understand why my post got deleted. This thread is called "moans.." so can I at least say that I do not enjoy this kind of weather? Is this allowed or not? Or is it just for getting excited about the records? 

Because if not I don't even see the point of this thread and of the forum honestly 

 

It was more the fallout. It's a hot day. I'm sweating my wotsits off in the garden. I'm on my phone. It was just easier to bin it all and move on from the whole willy waving nonsense and perceived guilt tripping.

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3 minutes ago, cheese said:

 I mean, if we can still reach 38C despite nuisance cloud coming and going I think 40C with clear skies all day would have been easily achievable.

But it’s been unbroken sunshine here from dawn until about 3:45pm....perhaps a couple of small notches higher but I think we hit more or less exactly as forecasted. 

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

But it’s been unbroken sunshine here from dawn until about 3:45pm....perhaps a couple of small notches higher but I think we hit more or less exactly as forecasted. 

Can we not just be honest now and say the UK is not a 40c country it didn't get to 39c even and everyone says they never felt heat like this. Maybe we should just accept that this is as hot as it gets.

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Just now, Mapantz said:

I'm not being sarcastic with you. You were the one that said the Arpege was bang on with 40°C..

Just querying it, that's all.

And you don’t think that is an accurate claim? 

I don’t have precise figures but there was quite an extended time with cloud cover. Even when the sun comes back out, you have still lost vital warming. 

We only needed another 0.5c, this would 100% have been done with less cloud, and very close to 40c, perhaps even on it. 

It doesn’t matter, it’s done now, and it’s still be a fantastic day. But we were extremely unlucky the cloud came in like that 

I so wanted that 2003 record to go, and with the Synoptics, it really should of done 

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I think it highlights just how difficult it is going to be to get 40c in this country. Pretty much requires optimal alignment of factors which are likely never going to be reached any time in the immediate couple of decades IMO.

Never say never though!

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Just now, NTC said:

Can we not just be honest now and say the UK is not a 40c country it didn't get to 39c even and everyone says they never felt heat like this. Maybe we should just accept that this is as hot as it gets.

Well there's a lot of sensationalism these days too from people & the media. But no getting around that it's been an exceptionally hot day with still the official figures to come in.

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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

But it’s been unbroken sunshine here from dawn until about 3:45pm....perhaps a couple of small notches higher but I think we hit more or less exactly as forecasted. 

Okay, but Heathrow reached 38C too and there was definitely a lot more cloud there today.

Also, heating would have continued after 4pm with clear skies as it normally does.

And everyone saying 40C will never be reached are talking out of their backsides to be frank. It wasn’t until bloody 1990 that 100F was breached in the UK.

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I think 40c was asking a lot - I’m 100% certain the UK can record this, and it will happen in the next 10-20 years if we continue to see global temperatures on a one way trajectory upwards. 

The only issue is that the set up required to deliver such extreme heat in the UK requires a trough out west and a ridge out east, which nearly always puts a few flies in the ointment. If the trough could be 50-100 miles further west so that the se escapes instability then it will happen.

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4 minutes ago, NTC said:

Can we not just be honest now and say the UK is not a 40c country it didn't get to 39c even and everyone says they never felt heat like this. Maybe we should just accept that this is as hot as it gets.

I think 40c is the absolute limit. Without any cloud, I think it could have been achieved today. I mean, the Synoptics were as fierce as you can possibly get. Uppers were higher than 2003

Not getting 40c I can accept, but 38.5c really should have been breached. 

The fact the 2003 record is still in place when we had higher uppers today and a prime time of the year, is very disappointing from a record point of view 

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4 minutes ago, matty007 said:

And you don’t think that is an accurate claim? 

Well, it can't be an accurate claim, can it? 

Genuine question; If you considered the 40°C on the Arpege to bang on, how would you rate the models that went for 38 and 39°C?

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think it highlights just how difficult it is going to be to get 40c in this country. Pretty much requires optimal alignment of factors which are likely never going to be reached any time in the immediate couple of decades IMO.

Never say never though!

Not sure I agree with this, if somewhere like the Netherlands just across the water can smash 40C as it has done today, I see no reason why somewhere in the South East can't manage it. Yes there is the island factor but the effect of the sea is minimal in that part of the country with the sort of flow we've had today.

 

 

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