Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[coldie]

19 minutes ago, Don said:

Can’t see that sadly, especially with those high temps in the North East Pacific, which been present pretty much since 2014!

That's that then folks, winter is over before it's even started 

[matty007]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Seriously some of you on here will never be satisfied...if your expectations are that high you will be disappointed an awful lot. Today has been a remarkable day- the 2nd warmest day on record in the UK in fact and the warmest July day on record.

The other amazing thing today is the extent of the 32C+ temperatures. Across England it is certainly the hottest day as a whole since 2006 at least and in many places since 1990. A huge number of locations have recorded 35C and not just in the south. In my area I'm pretty certain it's the warmest day since 1990.

When did I say I wasn't satisfied?

Purely from a weather perspective, I am very satisfied. I'm pretty sure it's been the warmest day ever in my location, and this week has been lovely indeed. I had a picnic earlier and thoroughly enjoyed the warm weather. What's more, the wind was fairly low too, so couldn't ask anymore really from a enjoyment and satisfaction point of view.

If we are talking about a nationwide and record point of view..Then yes, I am not 100% satisfied. While it was the hottest July day ever, with the very very extreme synoptics on offer, it should have been the hottest day ever recorded. I mean seriously..With uppers 2-3c warmer than in 2003, a lower wind speed, the optimum time of year...how did we seriously not beat 38.5c? It can of only been the cloud, because everything else was as about optimum and extreme as you could possibly get.

I get the feeling that I am not the only one who will be feeling this way. It has been very warm for days on end with very little to no cloud. Then suddenly when does the cloud decide to show up? At the most inconvenient and unlucky point imaginable. Only in the UK could this happen.

People have mildly berated me for supposedly exaggerating the effect the cloud today had on temps. However, if you look at the data, the facts speak for themselves. Heathrow's temps flattened for quite some when fairly dense cloud passed by, and it took them some time to start rising again. Regardless of whether they start to rise, it is still time that is lost, and more ground to recover. If you lose £5 and then win £10, you are still technically £5 behind what you should have been. The temps would certainly have been at least a degree warmer if the cloud had stayed away, maybe more.

Look, what's done is done. Still a wonderful day. But you must see that it was immensely unlucky and unfortunate timing that cost us what should have been the hottest day on record.

I am a weather lover, and a sun lover. But I also like to see extremes and records broken. While this day was indeed wonderful, and I will remember it as very very warm, I will also remember it as being the day that the UK had the most extreme synoptics imaginable and still failed to beat the all time record and near 40c.

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by matty007

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its one factor though Don. Even with those high temps in the Pacific last winter, didn't stop long term predictions of a cold winter, fair enough it didn't come off.... But other factors like a strong warming, and split vortex could bring us into the game... I've noticed how these are becoming increasingly common in recent times as well. Northern blocking has been showing to some degree as well for the best part of 3 months. Can this continue till end of the year? Its possible! I certainly think we will see more of an effort than last winter Don. Where to my knowledge I don't even recall seeing a run of sharp frosts! 

Well, I certainly hope we see a colder winter this year but it seems we have to have all factors play ball these days!  Also, I think the goal posts could be on the move, with Global Warming stepping up a gear.  Record low sea ice is also likely to have a bearing on winter, too.  Interestingly,  I think those warm Pacific sea temps did temporarily relent in 2017 and we had a colder winter to follow.  However, we will see

[Mapantz]

This isn't the Winter moans/ramps/chat thread folks..

[Man With Beard]

Temperatures remain well above 90F in many parts of the SE.

[matty007]

It's going to go bang.

[Man With Beard]

What an incredible range of temperatures today

Inverness 30C

Edinburgh 31C

Carlise 32C

York 35C

Manchester 33C

Sheffield area 35C

Birmingham 34C

SE - lots and lots of 36C / 37C

Even Dover 36C on the coast (which tells me 38C was probably exceeded not far away but no station present)

[danm]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Temperatures remain well above 90F in many parts of the SE.

Yep still 35c nearby at London City Airport 

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Last night min: 16.9C.  Current temp in back garden: 30.7C  Previous shower during afternoon but towering cumulonimbus dissipated.  Still cloudy but dry.  

Edited July 25, 2019 by Wildswimmer Pete
Typo

[Relativistic]

Re cloud: we're surrounded by water - doesn't matter if you have perfect synoptics because moisture is never far away. When temperatures climb into the mid-30s the "threat" of the development of cloudcover will always be there.

Perhaps what we've learnt from this is that 40C is far less achievable than many thought.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Relativistic

[matty007]

Preety sure it's the hottest day I've ever recorded. My station maxed out at 37.5c at around 3:45.

I don't recall it ever getting over 37c here.

Edited July 25, 2019 by matty007

[Rob K]

41 minutes ago, matty007 said:

 

I get the feeling that I am not the only one who will be feeling this way. It has been very warm for days on end with very little to no cloud. Then suddenly when does the cloud decide to show up? At the most inconvenient and unlucky point imaginable. Only in the UK could this happen....

Look, what's done is done. Still a wonderful day. But you must see that it was immensely unlucky and unfortunate timing that cost us what should have been the hottest day on record.

It's not really a coincidence - the hottest air is always going to be the most unstable, and we had 23-24C 850s coming up from the south, which of course triggered convective cloud. I think cloud will usually be the limiting factor in such a set-up.

[SLEETY]

Lol people moaning that the highest ever temp was not breached,it was never a certainty was it.the METO said about a 40% chance in the first place not 100% that some seem to be saying.

[matty007]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Lol people moaning that the highest ever temp was not breached,it was never a certainty was it.the METO said about a 40% chance in the first place not 100% that some seem to be saying.

Virtually every synoptic was more optimum than 2003. Why would it not of been likely?

Preety sure bookies would have taken very short odds on the maximum being beaten.

[Relativistic]

1 minute ago, Rob K said:

It's not really a coincidence - the hottest air is always going to be the most unstable, and we had 23-24C 850s coming up from the south, which of course triggered convective cloud. I think cloud will usually be the limiting factor in such a set-up.

Indeed, shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

[Mr Bartlettazores]

7 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Virtually every synoptic was more optimum than 2003. Why would it not of been likely?

Preety sure bookies would have taken very short odds on the maximum being beaten.

It was always about 60% so not really sure it would have had that favourable odds. Probably evens if the bookies would have offered but didn’t see anything offered when I looked. 

[Big daddy 49]

All I can say is that's on a par with the hottest day I've ever felt in this country.It was like a sauna in my back garden!.I've experienced 104 in Australia,and today has felt hotter.It will be nice to have it a bit cooler though!.Fingers crossed for more plumes

 

[hillbilly]

37 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Re cloud: we're surrounded by water - doesn't matter if you have perfect synoptics because moisture is never far away. When temperatures climb into the mid-30s the "threat" of the development of cloudcover will always be there.

Perhaps what we've learnt from this is that 40C is far less achievable than many thought.

Just what I have said before,even in these warming times it is going to take something incredible to add 1.5 deg to that of 2003. There is every chance it will not happen either in my lifetime or even the younger generations lifetime.No doubt we will get another failed attempt in 2032

[Scorcher]

16 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Just what I have said before,even in these warming times it is going to take something incredible to add 1.5 deg to that of 2003. There is every chance it will not happen either in my lifetime or even the younger generations lifetime.No doubt we will get another failed attempt in 2032

I'm sure I heard someone say the same about 21C in February...

For me that is just as remarkable as 40C in summer

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm sure I heard someone say the same about 21C in February...

For me that is just as remarkable as 40C in summer

no, way more chance of 20+ in Feb, than 40C in summer

=

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

no, way more chance of 20+ in Feb, than 40C in summer

=

We had never even got close before this year...fact. The previous record was 19.7C.

The difference between 21.2C and 19.7C is 1.5C. Add 1.5C to 38.5C and you have 40C

Edited July 25, 2019 by Scorcher

[Mr Bartlettazores]

Quick question if anyone can answer...was there cloud cover moving into the south east in the heatwave on 10th August 2003? Did it put a lid on temps going even higher that day? I recall severe thunderstorms up in the north east that afternoon and it was cooler in the west. Cardiff had a predicted record of 34 degrees on the Saturday 9th but unexpected cloud cover scuppered that (think it was 30/31 instead so below the city record from 1995 which is 33 degrees I believe). Would certainly be interesting to know although can’t remember cloud cover over the south east that day? 

[ChezWeather]

What a truly mental day, i never thought i'd be able to say, at 8pm, that it is now only 30c, ONLY 30! 

An extraordinary day and although it didnt quite break the UK record, im sure it will go down in a lot of peoples memories! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

We had never even got close before this year...fact. The previous record was 19.7C.

The difference between 21.2C and 19.7C is 1.5C. Add 1.5C to 38.5C and you have 40C

20 degrees in Jan coming? wouldn't surprise me at all

[hillbilly]

14 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm sure I heard someone say the same about 21C in February...

For me that is just as remarkable as 40C in summer

Not quite.The February record was taken this year at the end of the month where the previous record had stood mid month.There were also 4 other dates that were within a degree of the previous record and within 1.5 deg of the new record.The summer maximum however is rather different,there are numerous dates recording above 36 deg with the second highest at 37 deg yet 2003 is an almighty 1.5 deg above that.That reading from 2003 is incredible and it has just been found out today how high that is even in these days of warming..that record may indeed go but is highly unlikely but suggest 40 deg is achievable is laughable.