Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[knocker]

Doesn't alter the fact that 'chasing is a flawed concept that leads to a plethora of out of context and misleading posts.

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Doesn't alter the fact that 'chasing is a flawed concept that leads to a plethora of out of context and misleading posts.

It may be a ‘flawed concept’ as you call it,  but it’s what the vast majority on here like to do year after year - be it heat in summer or cold in winter. If we had nothing to chase, where would all the fun be?!

Edited July 25, 2019 by mb018538

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It may be a ‘flawed concept’ as you call it,  but it’s what the vast majority on here like to do year after year - be it heat in summer or cold in winter. If we had nothing to chase, where would all the fun be?!

The interest in the actual meteorology starting within the realistic time frame. I find that absorbing enough without resorting to 'fun' And I'm well aware that is what the vast majority want which is what makes them intolerant of other peoples views

Edited July 25, 2019 by knocker

[Weather-history]

Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
2019 192 (up to 24th July)
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194

[markyo]

Satan's breath is certainly flowing of the country today,mercifully the return to usable weather starts Friday..can not wait! This is awful

[NTC]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

Satan's breath is certainly flowing of the country today,mercifully the return to usable weather starts Friday..can not wait! This is awful

Well that's Sheffield normally anyway, satan's breath usually stinks down The Moor 

[Man With Beard]

39 minutes ago, knocker said:

Doesn't alter the fact that 'chasing is a flawed concept that leads to a plethora of out of context and misleading posts.

I disagree. "Chasing" in other words is a sequential asking of a question "Will it or won't it?" and the seeking of an accurate answer to that question. Totally consistent with the concept of a hypothesis in a scientific experiment. It is up to individuals if they wish to do this is a fair, unbiased way or not, which is no different to providing reports on phenomena in any situation. I will leave it there

[Stonethecrows]

13 hours ago, Mr Bartlettazores said:

It’s the ‘one offf’ comment which gets my interest.  34 degrees in Gravesend in mid September 2017; 36.7 degrees in July 2015 from a one day plume event; much more in the way of hitting 34 or 35 degrees as the top temperature over the last five years here in the UK. Oh and we may have dodged a bullet last summer since there was no southerly flow to allow 38 degree temperatures at the time. It could easily have happened.  So don’t really think it can be called a one off. Ok, like getting snow at Christmas time, we have hit the jackpot (heat lovers that is) for this heatwave at the hottest part of the year. 

Those that argue there is no warming trend or an increased frequency in record warm temperatures may also argue about the very cold spells in Brazil and Australia etc over recent months; the polar vortex hitting the US last winter.  However, these are surely anomalies in a warming world.  A bit like our 1976 summer being an anomaly in a cooler world back then. 

When the weather doesn't happen as thought year in year out it's funny how people say we've dodged a bullet just like when there's little snow in winter the old we were unlucky chestnut comes out. Yes i think 40 C would be a one off, unless you genuinely think every July from here on in will hit that temp every year? It's possible yes but by no means a given like some would have us believe. You talk about anomalies, well it could be that these plumes are just that anyway!  I'm not stupid, of course there is a warming trend and obviously climate change is happening but the potential jump to regularly hit high 30/40 C in this country is different to other parts of the the world anyway, in the same way we often miss severe winter weather. For climate change to affecting the uk at the rate some are alluding to, shouldn't we be seeing these heatwaves lasting more than just 3 days? The average temp for july is like 21, 22 yeah? well the odd plume here and there isn't like to alter that dramatically. Yet

So hitting high 30's or the magic 40 somewhere today will be a very noteworthy event but it's entirely possible it will be a good number of years before a July day gets that hot again and imho anyone who thinks next year and the year after will be a carbon copy is getting rather carried away.

[NTC]

Just now, Stonethecrows said:

When the weather doesn't happen as thought year in year out it's funny how people say we've dodged a bullet just like when there's little snow in winter the old we were unlucky chestnut comes out. Yes i think 40 C would be a one off, unless you genuinely think every July from here on in will hit that temp every year? It's possible yes but by no means a given like some would have us believe. You talk about anomalies, well it could be that these plumes are just that anyway!  I'm not stupid, of course there is a warming trend and obviously climate change is happening but the potential jump to regularly hit high 30/40 C in this country is different to other parts of the the world anyway, in the same way we often miss severe winter weather. For climate change to affecting the uk at the rate some are alluding to, shouldn't we be seeing these heatwaves lasting more than just 3 days? The average temp for july is like 21, 22 yeah? well the odd plume here and there isn't like to alter that dramatically. Yet

So hitting high 30's or the magic 40 somewhere today will be a very noteworthy event but it's entirely possible it will be a good number of years before a July day gets that hot again and imho anyone who thinks next year and the year after will be a carbon copy is getting rather carried away.

Indeed remember about 15 years ago someone saying on the tv that children will never see snow again and boom a few years later we knee deep in it at the end of November.

People and the media assume that because it has happened this year it will every year and of course that never happens.

[Stabilo19]

27 C at Heathrow at 8:20AM.

Yesterday it was 23 C at the same time.

Temps rising 2-4 degrees per hour.

Clear skies with a light SEly, and very little cloud coming up from France at the moment.

 

Wow this is actually going to happen isn’t it! 39 NW London new all time record?

[NTC]

The BBC have the following for London

9am  28c

10am 30c

11am 32c

12noon 34c

1pm 36c

2pm 37c

3pm 38c

4pm 38c

So I assume we can follow the live temps on this gauge if 38.5c is to be surpassed.

[danm]

27c at Heathrow and 28c at Headcorn Aerodrome in Kent already. 

[Eskimo]

Does anyone have access to live temperatures? I've got the Netweather and weatheronline one, just wasn't sure there were others?

[NTC]

Met Office weather chart on their website only shows a max of 36c at 4pm

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map#?map=ScreenTemperature&fcTime=1564023600&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=53.47

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, NTC said:

Met Office weather chart on their website only shows a max of 36c at 4pm

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map#?map=ScreenTemperature&fcTime=1564023600&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=53.47

Given temperatures are already as high as they forecast at 10am, they are probably on the low side. Also max it shows is 37c in a few locations in London.

The only uncertainty is any mid level storms that are currently over France moving over and causing cloud cover. However for now those cells are still very discrete which may mean only a brief drop in temperatures before it clears away...

However most models has the showers dying out over the channel as it moves towards the more capped air to its east.

Edited July 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Porto]

Met Office actually showing thunder showers on their forecast for Heathrow now. Top number of 38c still on hold though (after switching inbetween 38 and 39 several times)

 

[Stabilo19]

20 minutes ago, NTC said:

The BBC have the following for London

9am  28c

10am 30c

11am 32c

12noon 34c

1pm 36c

2pm 37c

3pm 38c

4pm 38c

So I assume we can follow the live temps on this gauge if 38.5c is to be surpassed.

29 C Heathrow 9am 

1 degree higher 

[knocker]

44 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I disagree.

No surprises there/.I was told many moons ago by one of the 'experts ' in the winter thread that nobody was interested in my opinion anyway which immediately attracted countless likes' . But to suggest that the winter thread, and to a lesser extent, the summer is an example of good scientific practice leaves me speechless

Edited July 25, 2019 by knocker

[Earthshine]

Thankfully I'm not sure what all the fuss is about hear in Cardiff.  I remember experiencing 40°C during the heatwave in France in late June.  Absolutely horrendous stuff and it's going to be unbearable for many people.  Temperatures hardly dropping away rapidly during the night either.  Thankfully only forecast a high of 29°C which is far more useable.

[kold weather]

20 minutes ago, danm said:

27c at Heathrow and 28c at Headcorn Aerodrome in Kent already. 

Heathrow now upto 28.8C.

Will need to watch that solo cell over far N.France, thats may track right through the prime heating zone and may just temporarily put the brakes on any heating between say 12-2pm IF it survives, which on a day of fine margins may make a difference. Of course no certainties that it will not just collapse as it hits the channel.

[NTC]

3 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Thankfully I'm not sure what all the fuss is about hear in Cardiff.  I remember experiencing 40°C during the heatwave in France in late June.  Absolutely horrendous stuff and it's going to be unbearable for many people.  Temperatures hardly dropping away rapidly during the night either.  Thankfully only forecast a high of 29°C which is far more useable.

I hate the heat I am lucky I will have 6 hours under the aircon from 12noon at work but it's one day and most places back to normal from tomorrow we are lucky it hasn't been sticky wet air but mainly dry air which is unusual for this country and has made it bearable it could have been horrible Carribbean air with all that moisture.

[Eskimo]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Heathrow now upto 28.8C.

Will need to watch that solo cell over far N.France, thats may track right through the prime heating zone and may just temporarily put the brakes on any heating between say 12-2pm IF it survives, which on a day of fine margins may make a difference. Of course no certainties that it will not just collapse as it hits the channel.

What website are you using? 

[NTC]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Heathrow now upto 28.8C.

Will need to watch that solo cell over far N.France, thats may track right through the prime heating zone and may just temporarily put the brakes on any heating between say 12-2pm IF it survives, which on a day of fine margins may make a difference. Of course no certainties that it will not just collapse as it hits the channel.

Do you mean this?

 

[Stabilo19]

Anyone got the steering winds chart for the SE? Will be important to see what direction that French shower will go

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Anyone got the steering winds chart for the SE? Will be important to see what direction that French shower will go

Should basically go from IoW just a hint east of north (say 10 degrees). Should JUST stay west of London but obviously there may be cloud overhang from the anvil which may well impact sites such as Heathrow, etc. Still a few hours away yet but not the best of timings it has to be said.