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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I know this thread is a bit more laid back than the model thread but it's not for talking about climate change. We have a thread for that as well as one for solar activity etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The two are linked - its indisputable fact - a -AO has a pretty strong correlation with post solar min winters, as it happens usually more so with the second winter after solar min to be fair.

It's not an 'indisputable fact' at all, as correlation does not equal causal linkage...And, once the correlation between AO and ice-melt is proven to be causal, it'll be seen as a far stronger link than anything solar cycles can do... 

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Posted
  • Location: South East London (Bromley)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Thunderstorms, Wind
  • Location: South East London (Bromley)

Does anyone have a good live temperature site for the key places tomorrow?

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
1 minute ago, SouthLondonCold said:

Does anyone have a good live temperature site for the key places tomorrow?

XCWeather.co.uk is one.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

XCWeather.co.uk is one.

Yes. Probably the best. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
51 minutes ago, Higher Ground said:

Re: whether summers are getting hotter - by my calculations:

For the past 10 years (2009-2018)
Mean annual max CET = 29.0C
Mean summer CET = 15.9C

Previous 10 years (1999-2008)
Mean annual max CET = 29.3C
Mean summer CET = 16.1C

Decade before that (1989-1998)
Mean annual max CET = 28.9C
Mean summer CET = 16.0C

Where have those figures come from?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The two are linked - its indisputable fact - a -AO has a pretty strong correlation with post solar min winters, as it happens usually more so with the second winter after solar min to be fair.

Are you sure about that? Here is the AO and sunspot numbers... can't see a pattern there, maybe a weak relationship since the mid-1970s at the very best.

image.thumb.png.e35d65a2bef07d55b12a300ee8c8b8a2.png

42 minutes ago, Higher Ground said:

Re: whether summers are getting hotter - by my calculations:

For the past 10 years (2009-2018)
Mean annual max CET = 29.0C
Mean summer CET = 15.9C

Previous 10 years (1999-2008)
Mean annual max CET = 29.3C
Mean summer CET = 16.1C

Decade before that (1989-1998)
Mean annual max CET = 28.9C
Mean summer CET = 16.0C

We can thank our poor run of Augusts for that....

 

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Posted
  • Location: North Bromsgrove 185m (moved 100m lower...)
  • Location: North Bromsgrove 185m (moved 100m lower...)
14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Where have those figures come from?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Xcweather is a bit too slow to update the temps for my liking. Magicseaweed website seems to be more rapid for live conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Are you sure about that? Here is the AO and sunspot numbers... can't see a pattern there, maybe a weak relationship since the mid-1970s at the very best.

image.thumb.png.e35d65a2bef07d55b12a300ee8c8b8a2.png

We can thank our poor run of Augusts for that....

 

Thats skewed by the fact that the ones in the 90s although were solar mins, they were very high solar mins, if they had been like the last one and this one, you would have seen a big correlation in -AO/NAO - UK cold winters and solar mins right from 70s until now.

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Quite a bit of cloud around at the moment which could prevent temps from dropping overnight and so give a better chance at 39 if it clears by morning!

 

B4AE0392-9C1E-4CF1-A723-E9A5DE722832.thumb.jpeg.d72fa2420e5b224bfae3b866c2d828bf.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats skewed by the fact that the ones in the 90s although were solar mins, they were very high solar mins, if they had been like the last one and this one, you would have seen a big correlation in -AO/NAO - UK cold winters and solar mins right from 70s until now.

I guess the next few winters will provide us with some useful answers. You see a high +AO in the early 90s with that solar peak and a -AO in the mid 90s and late 00s / early 10s...

However the 70s don't play ball so maybe some other signal was having a say during that time.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

I guess the next few winters will provide us with some useful answers. You see a high +AO in the early 90s with that solar peak and a -AO in the mid 90s and late 00s / early 10s...

However the 70s don't play ball so maybe some other signal was having a say during that time.

If we don't get a good winter in next 3 then i am giving up, worried though that we might not get any of them with a full winters worth of easterly qbo, that might scupper it - looks like next one or 2 at least will be during a changeover like last one, would rather take my chance and have one full one and just hope that we get a 47 or 63 with that and that the one with a westerly qbo can just co-incide with a very weak vortex to start off with and that you don't require an SSW and can still muster at least something decent.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats skewed by the fact that the ones in the 90s although were solar mins, they were very high solar mins, if they had been like the last one and this one, you would have seen a big correlation in -AO/NAO - UK cold winters and solar mins right from 70s until now.

Ah, I get it now...When the correlation is non-existent (or doesn't say what you think it should) it's being 'skewed' -- but, otherwise, it's fine?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside

It's certainly roasting. Enjoyed a day at Southport beach yesterday, the peak was around 29c I believe but with a very keen breeze being at the coast. Not experienced the 'hairdryer' type of weather in the UK for a long time it was great. Forecasts predict 33c imby tomorrow which is as hot as I can ever remember it here. We had a great storm as well last night. I can't believe summer 2019 was written off a month ago!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If we don't get a good winter in next 3 then i am giving up, worried though that we might not get any of them with a full winters worth of easterly qbo, that might scupper it - looks like next one or 2 at least will be during a changeover like last one, would rather take my chance and have one full one and just hope that we get a 47 or 63 with that and that the one with a westerly qbo can just co-incide with a very weak vortex to start off with and that you don't require an SSW and can still muster at least something decent.

Well even if we don't get something good in the next 3 years, that's not to say we won't get more chances in the future... I'm at least encouraged that the SST patterns in the North Atlantic are shaping up to be a lot different this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Well even if we don't get something good in the next 3 years, that's not to say we won't get more chances in the future... I'm at least encouraged that the SST patterns in the North Atlantic are shaping up to be a lot different this year.

I haven't looked at the SST's anoms for the last few months...has that dreaded cold area in the northern part of the North Atlantic dissipated?

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Let's please remember this is the Summer thread..

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Just now, Froze were the Days said:

I haven't looked at the SST's anoms for the last few months...has that dreaded cold area in the northern part of the North Atlantic dissipated?

Looks like it, below average SSTs are further west next to Newfoundland and we have warm SSTs to our west and NW...

image.thumb.png.212875269da79a96aa838a10ce34272c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If we don't get a good winter in next 3 then i am giving up, worried though that we might not get any of them with a full winters worth of easterly qbo, that might scupper it - looks like next one or 2 at least will be during a changeover like last one, would rather take my chance and have one full one and just hope that we get a 47 or 63 with that and that the one with a westerly qbo can just co-incide with a very weak vortex to start off with and that you don't require an SSW and can still muster at least something decent.

we have had some record breaking cold here in the last 2 years..its just a matter of being in the right place at the right time..i would have thought Dec 2010 is proof of that?

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
6 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Trouble is, not everyone can afford to buy air conditioning units, fans and other equipment in this day and age.  In our case, we could afford it, but, in a bungalow with wheelchairs all over the shop, we wouldn't have anywhere to put them. 

A fan costs about as much as warm clothes and blankets do in the winter when it’s cold.

As another poster said, the hot/cold is pretty easy to mitigate if you’re not homeless. 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
4 hours ago, sundog said:

Disturbing,most disturbing. More heat records broken........ sad state of affairs.  Worrying stuff.

Temperature records only go back what, 100 years?

The year before records began, Belgium could’ve reached 41 for all we know.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Let's please remember this is the Summer thread..

But seen as we are not allowed a winter thread, what thread can we use to discuss these kinds of things in please?

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