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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Going by the high-res models and some posters thoughts in the convective thread, my thunder drought is looking set to continue. Somehow.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Clouds breaking up readily across the south now, expect temperatures to respond upwards.

Cambridge region showing multiple pws now at 29c which looks reasonable.

Some places will get 30, officially or not from today 

Broadly the models are ok, though worth noting the 18z GFS yesterday were a good 2-3c too cool compared to current temperatures.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield

On the other hand, it's been cloudy here for almost an hour now, thank God. Temps dropping. 

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Apples and oranges.

Some areas are seeing higher temps than models forecast and others have lower temps. Areas SE of London are struggling to break through the low 20s.

So I think it's wise to be cautious regarding Thursday! We may be left with residual thunderstorm junk.

 

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

what a weird set of weather we have had this year. broke the record for a winter month in Feb when it reached 21c. It was 12 c in middle of June and one of the wettest Junes on record. and the record for July could go soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Clouds have broken up nicely now in London, temperature up to 26c - feeling very warm out there. Will most likely top out at about 27c, possibly 28c tops. 

Hotspot today is east Cambridgeshire over to East Anglia. 

Edited by danm
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
58 minutes ago, danm said:

Clouds have broken up nicely now in London, temperature up to 26c - feeling very warm out there. Will most likely top out at about 27c, possibly 28c tops. 

Hotspot today is east Cambridgeshire over to East Anglia. 

Mildenhall and Lakenheath both showing 29c at 3pm. Almost the same here, glorious day!

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

Met Office playing down storm chances at the moment, no warnings at all, after the yellow rain for West Scotland today

South-west local forecast is only passing mention of an isolated storm... but looking in the storm convective thread, it seems there is a good chance

Edited by stevofunnelcl
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Posted
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Temperatures ≤25ºC ≥10ºC.
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL

Feels lovely outside in Leeds today. Keeping an interested eye on the potential storm risk this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Mildenhall and Lakenheath both showing 29c at 3pm. Almost the same here, glorious day!

Yep definitely the hotspot your way today. We’ve got to 27c here now in bright sunshine, so could just about squeeze a 28c. 

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Seems to be maxing at 23-27 in London and the SE of England. 

So a few degrees down from predicted maxes of 29-30.... no point frantically worrying about what’ll happen in 3 days time if the forecast wasn’t accurate 12 hours out. 

 

With that being said - if we reached 27 in London after a mostly cloudy day then high 30s aren’t out of the question on Thursday if it’s sunny!

Edited by Stabilo19
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

Thank god for aircon at home,would be unbearable tonight without it. Very uncomfortable day for working in,thankfully a short lived spell though.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Latest from the MetO, re records and thunderstorms...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
25 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think there is a large synoptic element to this - many of the high summer heatwaves since the mid 90s have been plume based. The only exceptions to this since 2000 I believe were 2003 (though the hottest air ended up clipping the SE), 2006, 2013 and 2018. July 2013 and 2018 were more notable for persistent warmth rather then record breaking warmth.

The Spanish plume scenarios which have been the main cause of spells of heat in recent years always favour the SE because it is more exposed to the hot air from France which we see this week.

To deliver record heat in areas such as the NW we need heat trapped under a ridge of high pressure so these areas don't have an onshore breeze. 1990 was one of those instances.

image.thumb.png.5bbdfd68d859161bda1df2362588acdc.png 

I agree with this and up north its worth noting that plumes make it harder to reach records because of the lower lapse rates delivered in a cyclonic plume vs building anti-cyclonic spell.

1990 saw a 20C lapse rate (17C uppers delivered 37C) and here in Yorkshire where we hit 34C we saw a similar picture (uppers around 15C).

Contrast this to a lot of the plumes we get where we now get 20C uppers with about a 15C lapse rate due to the cyclonic nature (much less efficient) and where critically although the air is warmer down south, the weather tends to clear east as quickly as it used to so these magic uppers dont make it much past the Midlands).

Perhaps alarmingly though this suggests that our potential maximum may be much higher than we suspect. If we could get a anti-cyclonic pressure build from the south east to persist a few days with those 20C uppers then a good part of England may well be able to get in and around 40C+.

12 minutes ago, markyo said:

Thank god for aircon at home,would be unbearable tonight without it. Very uncomfortable day for working in,thankfully a short lived spell though.

Tonight is forecast to be warm but not especially so. It is Tuesday and Wednesday that will be punishing albeit Tuesday may feel better due to rain.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Tonight is forecast to be warm but not especially so. It is Tuesday and Wednesday that will be punishing albeit Tuesday may feel better due to rain.

Thanks for the heads up,looks like i'll be cranking up the aircon those two nights,i suspect the 1940's record could go for a over night temp.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

28.4C peak in our garden so we are setting up for a heatwave that's already beaten the one day "warmwave" in June where we only managed 26.5C.  Paddling pool and water pistols out. Windows open and drinks in fridge. Hot summer weather has finally landed! Will the portable air-con get a run out?

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Temperatures ≤25ºC ≥10ºC.
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
Just now, markyo said:

Thanks for the heads up,looks like i'll be cranking up the aircon those two nights,i suspect the 1940's record could go for a over night temp.

I was thinking the same but mine's a twin hose portable. Storms bother me as I was gonna leave the sash window open about 2 inches and run a fan on the window ledge overnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
13 minutes ago, markyo said:

Thanks for the heads up,looks like i'll be cranking up the aircon those two nights,i suspect the 1940's record could go for a over night temp.

Is that your local record or July record? As the UK record was in 1990 (Brighton) 23.9oC 

Edited by CanadianCoops
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
22 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Is that your local record or July record? As the UK record was in 1990 (Brighton) 23.9oC 

The 1940's record was 23.3c set in 48,i stand corrected,the Brighton record still stands

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
28 minutes ago, Stelmer said:

I was thinking the same but mine's a twin hose portable. Storms bother me as I was gonna leave the sash window open about 2 inches and run a fan on the window ledge overnight.

Doubt much storm activity to be honest in your area,myself i'd get the aircon on,better nights sleep!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield

Despite my fears, today has been just fine. Reached 26.9°C but with a strong breeze keeping it comfortable. Also the sun is far weaker here than in France two weeks ago!

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Not sure what all the fuss is about,just hit 23 deg here joint highest temp this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Also, it is a record I want to see broken, and this is by far our best chance. 

I want to see how hot the UK can get. Bring it on. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
3 hours ago, danm said:

Clouds have broken up nicely now in London, temperature up to 26c - feeling very warm out there. Will most likely top out at about 27c, possibly 28c tops. 

Hotspot today is east Cambridgeshire over to East Anglia. 

Can confirm it's very warm here in South Norfolk - UEA weather station has held at 28C since early afternoon.

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