Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[Frost HoIIow]

Can't say I'm looking forward to this week. A bit too hot for my liking, however, if we get some decent thunderstorms then all is forgiven.

[Cheshire Freeze]

41 minutes ago, Azazel said:

All year round seems a little extreme.

I’m a guy but I really feel the cold and it irritates me no end when people stick the air con on when the outside temperature is below 10 degrees.

i’m very slight and it also annoys me when they tell me to suck it up and put some weight on. Would be considered bad form I’m sure if I told them to hit the gym and lose some weight and then they wouldn’t feel so hot and sweaty all the time.

people are weird. 

I get very hot and sweaty and I'm slim like you. It's not always about weight. 

As im aging, my tolerance for cold is decreasing (used to easily be able to walk about in a T-shirt at -3 with no wind) but my heat intolerance is not changing. I can sweat walking to work when it's 20c and have it running off my forehead.

Edited July 21, 2019 by CreweCold

[snowsummer]

2 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Can't say I'm looking forward to this week. A bit too hot for my liking, however, if we get some decent thunderstorms then all is forgiven.

You and me both fh! 20 years  ago maybe. But the lungs are bad now at only 50%, and my daughter has heart disease.  From a weather geeks pov its fascinating  to watch. From our health pov got to admit I'm more than a little worried! ( least I have a 2 hour driving lesson on wed so can escape with the aircon!)

[h2005__uk__]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I get very hot and sweaty and I'm slim like you. It's not always about weight. 

As im aging, my tolerance for cold is decreasing but my heat intolerance is not changing. I can sweat walking to work when it's 20c and have it running off my forehead.

I'm the same. I've always felt the heat easily - I'm now 31 and that shows no signs of changing (yet). I'm also average weight.

I always go out in a t-shirt if the temperature's about 16C or more - can manage down to 13C if the sun's out and there's little wind.

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'd say it makes sense to hold back on the real extreme numbers as it would only need a 50-75 mile shift east and those temps are gone, and that's plenty possible at this stage still.

However I'd still count 35 as pretty extreme, even if it does feel like it's getting more common over the past 5 years.

So with it still being 4 days out he taking the extreme model numbers with a pinch of salt, perhaps thinking they have peaked now and can only go down from here, as is often the case with model watching over the years be it summer or winter.

Yes 35 is hot, but no record breaking this time.

[95 Degrees]

BBC forecast has gone insane for next week in Paris, next week is gonna be a crazy week for sure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507

[clark3r]

28 minutes ago, 95 Degrees said:

BBC forecast has gone insane for next week in Paris, next week is gonna be a crazy week for sure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507

Unbelievable to see those temps so close to our shores could be something special this week if everything falls in to place e.g no rain, no cloud cover etc

[95 Degrees]

1 hour ago, clark3r said:

Unbelievable to see those temps so close to our shores could be something special this week if everything falls in to place e.g no rain, no cloud cover etc

We are potentially looking at two days (Tuesday & Thursday) of hitting 30+c right on the South Coast, after having already hit it on the 29th June. That alone is impressive, but yes high 30s a serious possibility in London.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

what a horrible start, completely sunless and windy, sunny from word go mornings don't seem to exist anymore

[NTC]

I see that buffoon at the Daily Express has started talking in feels like temperature to make his ridiculous story sound even more sensational.

[Summer Sun]

Met office saying temps on Tuesday night and into Wednesday might not drop below 24c which would be a UK record

[Spah1]

Going to Padstow on Sunday for a week in the tent. 

Couldn’t care less how hot it’s going to be in the SE just starting to get very concerned with the forecast of numerous low pressure systems nipping in from the SW. 

Gutted. Hope pressure from the South rises and pushes them through Scotland. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Spah1

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Going to Padstow on Sunday for a week in the tent. 

Couldn’t care less how hot it’s going to be in the SE just starting to get very concerned with the forecast of numerous low pressure systems nipping in from the SW. 

Gutted. Hope pressure from the South rises and pushes them through Scotland. 

exactly, can't give a damn about the SE, don't live there

[stainesbloke]

As a weather enthusiast, I’d be getting quite excited by the potential of this coming week in the UK. Possibly record breaking temperatures and the likelihood of many areas seeing severe thunderstorms, great stuff

[NTC]

Already horribly warm and muggy up here, probably why we have the highest temps predicted today sunny is out.

[danm]

Bit of annoying cloud over the last couple of hours. It should clear but makes it less likely we will hit the forecast 29c today. Let’s see. 

Hot spot today looks likely to be around Cambridgeshire and into East Anglia, due to the WSW wind and it’s currently clear and sunny there. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by danm

[Rammie]

4 minutes ago, danm said:

Bit of annoying cloud over the last couple of hours. It should clear but makes it less likely we will hit the forecast 29c today. Let’s see. 

Hot spot today looks likely to be around Cambridgeshire and into East Anglia, due to the WSW wind and it’s currently clear and sunny there. 

My location in northants is also cloudy so far. Met Office, last time I checked, had zero sunshine for here on Wednesday, with a high of 30c. 

[Summer Sun]

The met office have issued a level 3 heatwave alert for parts of England.

The North east and North west remain green so the chance of a heatwave in these regions is just 40%.

Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 09:21 on Mon 22 Jul 2019

There is a 90 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Friday in parts of England.

A very warm week for much of the country with humid days and warm nights. Temperatures will be highest in the east or southeast of England. A band of rain or thunderstorms, expected to push slowly eastwards from Thursday onwards, with fresher conditions developing behind. The progress of the cooler conditions is likely to be slow and erratic, with the extreme southeast of the country likely to hold onto the hot conditions into Friday evening.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I cant believe these are the temperatures that the windows 10 weather app are forecasting for Manchester over the coming days  - awfully poor predictions.

 

[Stabilo19]

Regarding this in the MOD thread:

"July record (36.7c) is 100% going. Decent chance of beating 38.5c and a slight chance of 40c

If pretty much all the models are forecasting 37-38c then you can easily take that as highly likely. Even if you only add a degree you are at 38-39c

If even the pessimistic beeb is forecasting 37c for London, you sit up and take notice. You can usually add 2-3c to their forecast 

They are forecasting 35c for my location (Haverhill, Suffolk). That is unheard of. Typically we are around 32c even in 2006, 2013,2015

Once the models are three days out, they are pretty damn reliable and this is a stable situation unlike the plume before. No signs of degradation whatsoever. 

Thursday is going to definitely be a record breaker. Perhaps multiple records."

 

The temperature in London/SE is down by 3-4 degrees (multiple predictions of 26 midday, peaking at 29-30 later) right now with persistent cloud. A lower max today would mean a lower overnight min, which could impact tomorrow's max temp.

 

So nothing is guaranteed for Thursday despite XYZ predicting record breaking temps.

[Don]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Met office saying temps on Tuesday night and into Wednesday might not drop below 24c which would be a UK record

Look forward to a good night sleep Tuesday!

[Don]

22 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Lol I just feel people need to tough it out. I have the same response when I complain about feeling cold between October and March, when temps are anything between 5c-15c(milder periods set aside) and feel it’s warranted.

It’s not about toughing it out, it’s about individual preferences.  Of course those who don’t like extreme heat will ‘tough it out’.  They have no choice, just like those who don’t like very cold weather have to tough it out during big freezes.

[Met.]

1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

I cant believe these are the temperatures that the windows 10 weather app are forecasting for Manchester over the coming days  - awfully poor predictions.

 

Seems reasonable to me. Here the forecast says 27/28°C, and you are further west, nearer to the cold front on thursday, and will have more cloud.

[Man With Beard]

36 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

The temperature in London/SE is down by 3-4 degrees (multiple predictions of 26 midday, peaking at 29-30 later) right now with persistent cloud. A lower max today would mean a lower overnight min, which could impact tomorrow's max temp.

So nothing is guaranteed for Thursday despite XYZ predicting record breaking temps.

Just for information, I've been using the ECM predictions a lot in the MOD - they have a raw maximum of 26C for London today, which after adjusting would probably result in an actual maximum of between 28C and 30C. Northolt is already at 25C, so with clouds breaking and heat building, I see no reason why 28C won't be reached at least.

Highest temps on ECM for today are more towards Cambridgeshire/W Suffolk/W Norfolk - raw max 28C, so expecting between 30C and 32C. Mildenhall is slap bang in that area, and it was 28C just now at 1pm, so something in the range of 30C-32C should be the eventual outcome if cloud stays out of the way.

So it is all working - really

[Met.]

Good start to the heatwave here.

Cloud amounts much higher than forecast and temps dropping quickly down through 23C. It is 2 degrees below the forecast for this time according to the Met Office. Good. Hopefully all the temps of the next few days will also be lower than forecast, like today.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Thundershine