Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

No huge surprise the ECM Op has been at the extreme end for a couple of runs now low to maybe mid 30s in and around London and very warm spell for many at the start of next week all fairly normal for mid summer really.

What's that old saying again 2 hot day's and a thunderstorm?

Those were my thought from a couple off days back,   a proper short lived very warm plume, then carol with her fantastic humdingers.

[Azazel]

I'm happy that we look to be getting a classic plume event next week - shame its perfectly timed with the working week. Going to be disgusting in this un-airconditioned office.

[MP-R]

Perhaps a summer 2016 style plume. Sudden switch from wet to hot, with the chance of a reload.

19th July 2016 was a very hot day with clear skies from start to finish here. A hot night like what is shown in the models also followed (still 26C at midnight). 

[cheese]

Two days of 30C+ on the weather app now. Beeb going for 30C on Wednesday.

[mb018538]

Who'd have thought when we were all in the depths of despair in early- mid June with all the rain and gloom how the month after would pan out....

There were lots of silly 'summer is over, this pattern won't budge' posts flying around, when we all know that it can change at the flick of a switch. As it turns out, July hasn't been bad at all, dry and fairly warm for many, and we've had the 20c 850 isotherm over the UK once at the end of June, and likely again next week just 3 weeks later. We will have seen 34c in June, and probably similar or perhaps even higher in July. There are plenty of years that don't see two heat events of that scale, so it's had its moments. Can we finally get a decent August?

[JK1]

A dream forecast but really 33 Celsius & 4 days above 30 celsius for coastal town? Wont take it seriously yet  

BBC app not so extreme

Edited July 19, 2019 by JK1

[Summer Sun]

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for parts of the south

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 10:08 on Fri 19 Jul 2019

There is a 60 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Tuesday and 0900 on Thursday in parts of England.

A warm spell of weather is forecast to develop through the early part of next week, with the highest temperatures likely in the south and east of England. Conditions will stay warm and humid by night which could lead to uncomfortable sleeping conditions. Cloud and outbreaks of rain or thunderstorms are more likely in the west and north, with uncertainty at this time in these details, including how long the hot conditions will last for in the south and east.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for parts of the south

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 10:08 on Fri 19 Jul 2019

There is a 60 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Tuesday and 0900 on Thursday in parts of England.

A warm spell of weather is forecast to develop through the early part of next week, with the highest temperatures likely in the south and east of England. Conditions will stay warm and humid by night which could lead to uncomfortable sleeping conditions. Cloud and outbreaks of rain or thunderstorms are more likely in the west and north, with uncertainty at this time in these details, including how long the hot conditions will last for in the south and east.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

In order to not be censured by the Mods, I'm supposed to avoid saying that this is worrying and that I think those who want it to verify in its most extreme possible manner are selfish.  Doesn't stop it from being a problem, though.  Thanks for the info.

[Nick L]

Why does the unpleasant heat have to wait for the only 2 night shifts I have this month?

[Met.]

8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

In order to not be censured by the Mods, I'm supposed to avoid saying that this is worrying and that I think those who want it to verify in its most extreme possible manner are selfish.  Doesn't stop it from being a problem, though.  Thanks for the info.

At the end of the day everybody with some personal interest in weather events has some form of "selfish" interest in it. Doesn't mean they want others to suffer though, so do give it a rest.

[reef]

19 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Why does the unpleasant heat have to wait for the only 2 night shifts I have this month?

Snap. I'm on nights weds and thurs and its forecast 30C both days if the GFS is anything to go by. This is a warm house too, even today its 23C indoors.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

30 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

In order to not be censured by the Mods, I'm supposed to avoid saying that this is worrying and that I think those who want it to verify in its most extreme possible manner are selfish.  Doesn't stop it from being a problem, though.  Thanks for the info.

exactly the same who always want cool, rain and gales, affects my chest now the cooler and wetter it is, from early Jul to late Aug

hotter and drier the better

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

exactly the same who always want cool, rain and gales, affects my chest now the cooler and wetter it is, from early Jul to late Aug

hotter and drier the better

Indeed, and the point is there's a moderate alternative which is standard UK summer.  Some heat, a few storms, some wetter periods.  Something for everyone without an extreme of any single weather type.

[reef]

I hate the heat and its going to be a nightmare for me next week, but as a weather enthusiast I do enjoy extremes.

Perhaps it's best we don't try to guilt trip people and instead talk about what may happen?

Thanks

[Freeze]

34 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Indeed, and the point is there's a moderate alternative which is standard UK summer.  Some heat, a few storms, some wetter periods.  Something for everyone without an extreme of any single weather type.

And standard uk summer is exactly what we’re experiencing, some heat, a few storms(although not as much as I’d like) and some wetter periods, there’s no harm in wanting heat, it’s gonna happen whether one likes it or not, there’s no point pretending to not like it because it harms a few people, the same as I love severe windstorms however I don’t like how people get affected, nothing one can do about that... 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Freeze said:

And standard uk summer is exactly what we’re experiencing, some heat, a few storms(although not as much as I’d like) and some wetter periods, there’s no harm in wanting heat, it’s gonna happen whether one likes it or not, there’s no point pretending to not like it because it harms a few people, the same as I love severe windstorms however I don’t like how people get affected, nothing one can do about that... 

120 mm of rain over a few days in Lincolnshire wasn't normal, though, an neither would be 40C next week given that the existing maximum from 2003 was 38C.

[Freeze]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

120 mm of rain over a few days in Lincolnshire wasn't normal, though, an neither would be 40C next week given that the existing maximum from 2003 was 38C.

These are localised events, if 40c were to come off although most likely it won’t, but if it were, liking it or not won’t change anything so may aswell enjoy watching the stats as they unfold as it’s a rare event

[Schnee]

Heatwaves are as rare as decent snow events these days. Although heatwaves are not my idea of fun weather I must admit it is interesting seeing how they evolve and how hot it gets. Also, without heatwaves we won't get the juicy storms which are like the treat for enduring the heat!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Stelmer said:

Heatwaves are as rare as decent snow events these days. Although heatwaves are not my idea of fun weather I must admit it is interesting seeing how they evolve and how hot it gets. Also, without heatwaves we won't get the juicy storms which are like the treat for enduring the heat!

If we do get a heatwave next week, there will be a part of me that enjoys the extreme nature of it, but that wont be the case when I cannot sleep due to the fact that our bungalow seems to trap heat irrespective of how many windows we open.

[Schnee]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If we do get a heatwave next week, there will be a part of me that enjoys the extreme nature of it, but that wont be the case when I cannot sleep due to the fact that our bungalow seems to trap heat irrespective of how many windows we open.

I had the lack of airflow issue too - victorian terraced houses seem to be really good at doing the opposite of what one wants in a given season.....

I gave in a while back and brought a fleet of portable a/c units that work well but cost a bit when solar isn't topping it off. I want proper a/c but that costs about £1k/room which isn't worth the investment and the outside unit would attract attention.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

A vile day after the past week's decent weather.  Almost continuous rain and cloud with no bright periods although I'd forgive it if we get a thunderstorm overnight. Looks like it'll be blazingly hot next week, the weather I like the most, especially after one of the coldest, wettest Junes I can remember during the past six decades.

 

[Summer Sun]

Later next week

Most likely heat eases, some thundery rain
Or hot sunny weather lasts longer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49050859

[Met.]

Well still no thunder here, just boring frontal punce all day long. Hate cold wet days in summer. I think it's been 3.5 years since I last witnessed a thunderstorm now. 

Also, it was interesting to note today that the Met Office Tmax forecast was over 3 degrees off today, forecasting 21°C, but the BBC were spot on at 18 degrees.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Thundershine

[Sunny76]

13 hours ago, Azazel said:

I'm happy that we look to be getting a classic plume event next week - shame its perfectly timed with the working week. Going to be disgusting in this un-airconditioned office.

So, will it be similar to July 2017? That was a great thundery period 

[IanR]

no thunder again,  despite it being in the forecast ,

well, there is always today     ,  but after a sunny start the grey drab stratus infill has cloaked the whole sky again,  dont think anything will happen 

what happened to those days with a warm sunny start , cumulus bubbling up to form impressive towers then thunderstorms , was sort of expecting something like that today...... thought not , too much to ask, more chance of meeting elvis in my local tescos