Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[Scorcher]

8 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

This is what we have to look forward to. I couldn’t draw a worse chart for summer if I tried! 

 

How on Earth is that the worst chart for summer? Conditions reasonable for most. I could bring up hundreds of worse summer charts- here's one for starters.

[Derecho]

31 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

 

How on Earth is that the worst chart for summer? Conditions reasonable for most. I could bring up hundreds of worse summer charts- here's one for starters.

Or this

I think residents of Lincolnshire will happily take a period of anticyclonic northerlies

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

 

How on Earth is that the worst chart for summer? Conditions reasonable for most. I could bring up hundreds of worse summer charts- here's one for starters.

You must love Greenland heights then. That chart you picked out would at least give more of a chance of something exciting/convective. 

You must have not noticed there’s higher 850hpa uppers over Svalbard than what we are having to put up with too. I’ll quote ‘Stainesbloke’ in saying, stop trying to polish a turd! 

[MP-R]

Some other stinkers from years gone by - some of the worst summer days I can remember:

           

  

Edited July 2, 2019 by MP-R

[Big daddy 49]

I have zero meteorological knowledge,I look at the Jet stream and it seems to be all over the shop.Can someone with more know how than me,tell me what does it mean if it's right over the UK?.And am I right in that it needs to be to the North for us to have good weather?.

[danm]

11 minutes ago, Big daddy 49 said:

I have zero meteorological knowledge,I look at the Jet stream and it seems to be all over the shop.Can someone with more know how than me,tell me what does it mean if it's right over the UK?.And am I right in that it needs to be to the North for us to have good weather?.

Yes, you want the jet north of us for the UK to get good weather. It deflects low pressure to the north, allowing pressure to build over or near the UK bringing settled, warmer weather. The jet right over us steers low pressure systems in our direction bringing wind and rain. 

[StormChaseUK]

The jet can also split when they encounter an upper low.   Which is why this weekend is proving difficult to forecast, we don't know if the low will raise over the top of the UK  into Europe or more across it allowing the warmer air to the SW to be shunted off.

Edited July 2, 2019 by StormChaseUK

[cheeky_monkey]

i thought things couldn't get worse here...but yesterday was cold with heavy rain and 6c ..woke up this morning to a slight frost...its July for goodness sake .summer is short enough here already..autumn is only 6 weeks away 

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

You must love Greenland heights then. That chart you picked out would at least give more of a chance of something exciting/convective. 

You must have not noticed there’s higher 850hpa uppers over Svalbard than what we are having to put up with too. I’ll quote ‘Stainesbloke’ in saying, stop trying to polish a turd! 

Sorry but there is no way you can justify calling that the worst summer chart you've seen. I'm far more interested in conditions on the ground than whether there are Greenland heights present. And I have no interest in convective potential if for the most part we have to suffer constant rain, as has happened in the past.

[Big daddy 49]

5 hours ago, danm said:

Yes, you want the jet north of us for the UK to get good weather. It deflects low pressure to the north, allowing pressure to build over or near the UK bringing settled, warmer weather. The jet right over us steers low pressure systems in our direction bringing wind and rain. 

Cheers,I'll be looking at that Jet stream!.Any sign of that shifting north permanently anytime soon?

[DAVID SNOW]

Friday/Saturday looking pleasantly warm down here(se).

[Weather-history]

Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
2019 173 (up to 2nd July)
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180

[Aleman]

17 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i thought things couldn't get worse here...but yesterday was cold with heavy rain and 6c ..woke up this morning to a slight frost...its July for goodness sake .summer is short enough here already..autumn is only 6 weeks away 

Looks like we came close in the UK. 1.7C recorded here a few hours ago:

https://www.corsock.com/

Likeliest cold spots, Tulloch Bridge and Aboyne, might have been colder but they've been off-line a few days. Shap had 2.2C and Sennybridge 1.8C so someone might have seen a touch of frost there.

Edited July 3, 2019 by Aleman

[stodge]

Morning all

Some warmth in the output charts this morning but no real heat mercifully. 850s remain where you'd expect them to be and with HP building from the west the airflow keeps the heat pinned well to the south.

GFS continues to show some uninspiring charts for mid month with LP moving closer as the Azores HP retreats south west. It's perfectly possible last Saturday might have been the warmest day of 2019.

[danm]

39 minutes ago, stodge said:

Morning all

Some warmth in the output charts this morning but no real heat mercifully. 850s remain where you'd expect them to be and with HP building from the west the airflow keeps the heat pinned well to the south.

GFS continues to show some uninspiring charts for mid month with LP moving closer as the Azores HP retreats south west. It's perfectly possible last Saturday might have been the warmest day of 2019.

We don’t often exceed 34c in this country so very likely last Saturday will be the hottest day of 2019. However that doesn’t mean another heatwave isn’t on the way at some point. We have two months left of meteorological summer. It just may not exceed 34c!

[h2005__uk__]

1 hour ago, danm said:

We don’t often exceed 34c in this country so very likely last Saturday will be the hottest day of 2019. However that doesn’t mean another heatwave isn’t on the way at some point. We have two months left of meteorological summer. It just may not exceed 34c!

It depends where you mean - nationally it may have been the warmest day of the year, but locally there are many areas which usually hit 30C but have yet to do so. So yes, perfectly possible there may be a heatwave with widespread low 30Cs, but nowhere getting to 34C.

[Big daddy 49]

1 hour ago, danm said:

We don’t often exceed 34c in this country so very likely last Saturday will be the hottest day of 2019. However that doesn’t mean another heatwave isn’t on the way at some point. We have two months left of meteorological summer. It just may not exceed 34c!

I have a feeling it will.Just a feeling that's all!.Have faith!.

[Azazel]

Some nice charts on show for next week. Can't complain.

 

Only I can - where is the convection this year? Actually, scrap that - where has it been since last April? Absolutely nothing down here. I don't recall going this long without seeing something.

[MP-R]

Yes, the most convective spells this year have also been when it's been coolest. The thunderstorms here on 07th June and 08th May were both on chilly days. In fact the thunderstorm on 04th March was also from a cold airmass.

Only a lucky few seem to have benefitted from a plume style storm so far this year.

[danm]

1 hour ago, h2005__uk__ said:

It depends where you mean - nationally it may have been the warmest day of the year, but locally there are many areas which usually hit 30C but have yet to do so. So yes, perfectly possible there may be a heatwave with widespread low 30Cs, but nowhere getting to 34C.

Yes that’s true, just meant that it’s unlikely (although not impossible) that we’ll exceed 34c this summer, due to how infrequently it happens in the UK. 

However there’s every chance we’ll see another heatwave and will breach 30c again, including other areas of the UK that didn’t hit 34c last week achieving their warmest day of the year so far. 

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Another autumnal "high summer" day: overnight min 10C, currently an underwhelming 18C @ 3:25pm, supposedly the warmest part of the day.  Cold winds from a northern quarter have been the default summer setting for NW England over the past few years.

[Sunny76]

On 01/07/2019 at 21:05, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Unless something changes, then this July looks to possibly be just as drab as June has been. Whilst you’ve got uppers of +10 - +15 surging into the arctic circle, we are left under a persistent cold pool, and retrogressing heights to Good old Greenland. Some runs even showing the -5 isotherm getting close to Northern Scotland. 

I have yet to even see a proper thunderstorm either, and it’s already July! What on Earth is going on!? This year it’s safe to say we are paying a heavy price for last year. That 34c day on Saturday just papered over the cracks on what I rank as the most boring June I’ve ever experienced. At least 2007 and 2012 has some decent convective elements to them. 

No, they were awful summers and we had no thunderstorms in 2007 for London. I do remember however, an afternoon thunderstorm in August 2012. Think it was a Saturday. Anyone remember that?

[northwestsnow]

51 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Another autumnal "high summer" day: overnight min 10C, currently an underwhelming 18C @ 3:25pm, supposedly the warmest part of the day.  Cold winds from a northern quarter have been the default summer setting for NW England over the past few years.

And yet only 30-40miles to your east its warm sunny and no breeze at all.

 

[cheese]

Sunny, 24C with 39% humidity. Today is pretty much my idea of a perfect summers day.

[hillbilly]

2 hours ago, danm said:

Yes that’s true, just meant that it’s unlikely (although not impossible) that we’ll exceed 34c this summer, due to how infrequently it happens in the UK. 

However there’s every chance we’ll see another heatwave and will breach 30c again, including other areas of the UK that didn’t hit 34c last week achieving their warmest day of the year so far. 

The records above 34 deg show almost exactly twice per decade except for the 1960s where there were none and 6 out of the last 7 years.