Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[AderynCoch]

A scorcher here this afternoon (36.6C). It's all going bang now though. Just had gunshot thunder.

I'm betting we're going to accrue more rain by the end of the night than we managed for the whole of June (9.3mm).

[Don]

17 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Am I mistaken but are very good Augusts in a poor or mediocre summer as rare as hens teeth?

In this current climate, who knows?!  Anyway, we don’t know how July is going to pan out yet.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Don

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

In this current climate, who knows?!  Anyway, we don’t know how July is going to pan out yet.

Why do you think this current climate has failed to beat heat records from 1976 and 2003?

[Don]

9 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Why do you think this current climate has failed to beat heat records from 1976 and 2003?

It hasn’t.  Look at February this year for example with 70f recorded for the first time in winter and then we have December 2015, April 2007/11 etc.  I wasn’t talking about summer only.  Anyway, my comment was not intended to spark a debate!

Edited July 1, 2019 by Don

[DAVID SNOW]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

It hasn’t.  Look at February this year for example with 70f recorded for the first time in winter and then we have December 2015, April 2007/11 etc.  I wasn’t talking about summer only.  Anyway, my comment was not intended to spark a debate!

Sorry Don but it has, and this is the summer ramps moans and chat thread after all.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Sorry Don but it has, and this is the summer ramps moans and chat thread after all.

Whatever....How has it failed?  Numerous temperatures records have tumbled since 2003 and that’s a fact! 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Don

[Sunny76]

39 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Am I mistaken but are very good Augusts in a poor or mediocre summer as rare as hens teeth?

1991 was poor. It started with a cold June, although July had some hot spells, and a thundery spell early on. I remember parts of August that year being quite warm and sunny, but there were wet periods also.

[weatherguru14]

even the high out to our west is in the wrong position....All it needs to do is edge eastwards and things would warm up. But like I said at the start of June this is your typical English summer. Last year was an exception rather than the rule.

The cold winter last year made all the difference.. It killed off the Atlantic  and the high was further north than usually.Now we are in our typical west to north westerly regime..Any one hoping for hot weather this summer. will have to accept its not gonna happen. Not for more than few days.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Sorry Don but it has, and this is the summer ramps moans and chat thread after all.

Don has a good point, temperatures are all over the place, records falling in winter for unseasonable warmth... Correct me if I'm wrong but 2018 was an historical summer, the first 3 weeks of June have been poor, but all I'm hearing is how bad this summer is... To my knowledge there are 8 weeks to go yet. And also temps of 23-26c are very decent for any part of the U.k. Especially as during sunnier moments we could ad several degrees to those figures. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Paul

[DAVID SNOW]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

Whatever....How has it failed?  Numerous temperatures records have tumbled since 2003 and that’s a fact! 

Numerous yes, but not the outstanding exceptional heat ones, I only asked why you thought 1976 and 2003 still stand, but whatever as you say lol.

[danm]

1 hour ago, Airedalejoe said:

For the first week of July that's a poor forecast for my location, no where near northern Scotland.

I've also noticed recently that the Met office tend to over egg summer temperature forecasts.

The recent non existent heatwave a prime example compared to other 'resources'.

This coming week is another example, the App I use (supplier I believe the same one that supply the BBC) has high temps for Newcastle of 17..17..19..17 then dropping further for next weekend, 15/16c!! Well below average but not reflected in the met office forecast.

I know who my money is on.

I wouldn’t say the heatwave was “non-existent”, just short lived. 34c recorded in London on Saturday and widely 30c+ across vast swathes of England. 

Some western areas also had a hot day on Friday. 

[B87]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Average to slightly above for London early July yes.

That forecast I posted, has an average high of 23.6c for the 14 day period. Pretty much exactly average for London in July.

23-24c partly cloudy and dry is very typical July/August weather in London.

[Froze were the Days]

15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes its the summer moans thread, not the.... Let's get personal with folks thread!! Don has a good point, temperatures are all over the place, records falling in winter for unseasonable warmth... Correct me if I'm wrong but 2018 was an historical summer, the first 3 weeks of June have been poor, but all I'm hearing is how bad this summer is... To my knowledge there are 8 weeks to go yet. And also temps of 23-26c are very decent for any part of the U.k. Especially as during sunnier moments we could ad several degrees to those figures. 

Ah some welcome relief...

[Summer Sun]

Next week

All about the high...
Stays to the west - cool with showers
Builds in - temperatures rise, largely dry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/48831893

[Don]

7 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Numerous yes, but not the outstanding exceptional heat ones, I only asked why you thought 1976 and 2003 still stand, but whatever as you say lol.

And I was only answering your question.  I wasn’t just talking about exceptional heat, although as Mattwolves said, last summer was pretty exceptional, even if we didn’t break all time records.  Anyway, lets please leave it at that.  

[daz_4]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Numerous yes, but not the outstanding exceptional heat ones, I only asked why you thought 1976 and 2003 still stand, but whatever as you say lol.

Well, you could say UK has been lucky/unlucky. Those records from 2003 are being overwritten all the time here in Central Europe these past few summers. June 03 was the warmest June on record until now. June 19 beat it by 1,3 °C.

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, B87 said:

23.6c for the 14 day period

Give over 23.6c max average for the first 14 days of July, so what would it be for early August the hottest part of the year?

[B87]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

Give over 23.6c max average for the first 14 days of July, so what would it be for early August the hottest part of the year?

23.6c for July as a whole. I said it looks average for July. The average high in late July and early August would be around 24.0c. Maybe closer to 24.5c in the last 30 years.

[Froze were the Days]

Coupled with the partly sunny/fine days Londoners would bite your hands off for that particularly after June...bit better than average I'd say for that 14 days factoring in the settled conditions.

[B87]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Coupled with the partly sunny/fine days Londoners would bite your hands off for that particularly after June...bit better than average I'd say for that 14 days factoring in the settled conditions.

Maybe 0.5c above average for that particular part of July. If you took a random 14 day snapshot from any part of any July, that forecast would be a very good representation is what you'd expect though. Partly cloudy and dry conditions are normal in July. It's been the most consistent summer month relative to average over the last 10 years or so.

June was very poor until the last week, though. I did say I'd be happy with an average July/August. Meaning 23-24c average highs and dry. Something like July 2005 (with a similar Ashes outcome to that year).

Edited July 1, 2019 by B87

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Unless something changes, then this July looks to possibly be just as drab as June has been. Whilst you’ve got uppers of +10 - +15 surging into the arctic circle, we are left under a persistent cold pool, and retrogressing heights to Good old Greenland. Some runs even showing the -5 isotherm getting close to Northern Scotland. 

I have yet to even see a proper thunderstorm either, and it’s already July! What on Earth is going on!? This year it’s safe to say we are paying a heavy price for last year. That 34c day on Saturday just papered over the cracks on what I rank as the most boring June I’ve ever experienced. At least 2007 and 2012 has some decent convective elements to them. 

[Blessed Weather]

I have removed several posts and edited a number more this evening. Can we draw a line under the above difference of opinions and return to friendly chat and banter in this thread please. Thank you.

[DAVID SNOW]

7 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Well, you could say UK has been lucky/unlucky. Those records from 2003 are being overwritten all the time here in Central Europe these past few summers. June 03 was the warmest June on record until now. June 19 beat it by 1,3 °C.

The difference between a large continental land mass and an island would explain it(imo)

[danm]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Unless something changes, then this July looks to possibly be just as drab as June has been. Whilst you’ve got uppers of +10 - +15 surging into the arctic circle, we are left under a persistent cold pool, and retrogressing heights to Good old Greenland. Some runs even showing the -5 isotherm getting close to Northern Scotland. 

I have yet to even see a proper thunderstorm either, and it’s already July! What on Earth is going on!? This year it’s safe to say we are paying a heavy price for last year. That 34c day on Saturday just papered over the cracks on what I rank as the most boring June I’ve ever experienced. At least 2007 and 2012 has some decent convective elements to them. 

I’m sorry but we have +10c 850’s in the south later this week, with 26c/27c forecast. 

It’s the 1st of July and the first 7 days look largely dry, settled, sunny at times and warm for some. Hardly dire. How you or anyone else can tell us what the rest of July is going to be like is beyond me. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, danm said:

I’m sorry but we have +10c 850’s in the south later this week, with 26c/27c forecast. 

It’s the 1st of July and the first 7 days look largely dry, settled, sunny at times and warm for some. Hardly dire. How you or anyone else can tell us what the rest of July is going to be like is beyond me. 

The writing has been on the wall since May. That cold pool over the Barents Sea and N Atlantic just hasn’t shifted, along with those Greenland heights. 

Ive also been watching this next warm spell slowly eroding away into what will look like another thunderless breakdown and a sudden chill from the north. If that isn’t dire, I don’t know what is. The patterns just aren’t sitting right with us this year. Any change we will likely see, is into August in my opinion.