Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[matty007]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Charlwood is already 31c before noon......we are surely going to see 34-35c today.

With 3-4 hours warming to go, no cloud, and a mere 7mph southerly? I doubt it. It will rise more than that. 36-37c 

[mb018538]

Shame we didn’t have 2 days of this feed of air with record breaking uppers. June record would have gone, with the UK record under threat. The record maxima in France has shown that it is possible to beat  all time records this early in summer when usually they go in late July/early August.

[matty007]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Shame we didn’t have 2 days of this feed of air with record breaking uppers. June record would have gone, with the UK record under threat. The record maxima in France has shown that it is possible to beat  all time records this early in summer when usually they go in late July/early August.

Yes, my thoughts too. 

Shows you how badly a northerly flow can effect temperatures. As soon as it's turned southerly today the temps have just rocketed. If we had 2-3 days of this, I have no doubt that 40c would be breached. 

[Weather-history]

Looks like sea fog is in around Llandudno

http://www.westshorebeachcafe.com/webcam-in-llandudno/

[Fohn effect]

Just baçk from prestatyn where it's about 19C. Abit of high cloud and 25C perfect weather ,no moaning here 

[Seasonal Trim]

Absolutely beautiful weather here in the South East. Would be on the weekend I'm on shift! Could do with a BBQ and a few pints. 

[Aleman]

Apologies for the subject matter but I think it is useful to know.

Hot versus cold deaths is often an ill-informed debate. UK baseline deaths is usually around 9,000 per week in summer. It increases steadily into winter as it gets colder so there is an argument warm weather is good as it reduces deaths. Winter cold snaps of several frosty days or more show up every time as a spike of maybe 2,000 to 5,000 deaths per week, usually mostly through indirect issues like flu and the effects of cold on other illnesses. Media hype up deaths from heat but, in reality, the numbers from heat are small and seem to be offset by people reducing deaths elsewhere - perhaps relaxing instead of doing heavy work. It's possible overall death rates actually reduce sometimes when it's hot.  When we have heatwaves, there is usually no observable change in death rates from the 9,000 baseline. Observe the graphs below. See the cold weather spikes in previous years, and see how this year's warm February saved a few thousand lives. Cold winter weather kills many more than hot summer weather - at least in the UK it does.  It's worth remembering when the media are hyping how bad the heat is for health that we'd probably actually be better off if our climate warmed a bit, even if it meant more heatwaves. It's cold snaps that kill many more.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/810438/Weekly_all-cause_mortality_surveillance_week_25_2019_report.pdf

Apologies again for the subject matter again but I think it puts more context into the debate on how bad for health some hot weather is.

 

Currently dipped to 23.5C here after touching 26.1C. Given our suntrap garden averages 22C+ in summer, we have not reached the heatwave threshold of 5C over average yet even for one day. It is quite a hot day, though, and I will be going to the pub shortly to enjoy it without feeling guilty for wishing for a taste of the weather others were getting!

 

 

 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Aleman

[Met.]

If people even think today's weather is too hot then they need to spend a few weeks in a country that actually gets "hot" summers. i.e. places where about 98% of the world's population live and don't whinge about it.

Anyway it's 27 degrees here and very pleasant. Not even close to hot, and very comfortable outside with my usual 2-3 layers on.

Edited June 29, 2019 by Thundershine

[hillbilly]

2 hours ago, matty007 said:

Yes, my thoughts too. 

Shows you how badly a northerly flow can effect temperatures. As soon as it's turned southerly today the temps have just rocketed. If we had 2-3 days of this, I have no doubt that 40c would be breached. 

40 deg will not be breached

[Zesyph]

Saw this on twitter hope its just a joke. Isnt this a bit too close to the runway? For me at least. 

 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Zesyph

[LightningLover]

28.6c Currently here in Bexhill! Scorcher by our standards! Not to mention, there is hardly a cloud in the sky (apart from some high-level cirrus)!!

Edited June 29, 2019 by LightningLover

[Radiating Dendrite]

29.5c here.... lovely in the garden and not unbearable. Think temps are down a little on what was expected - seems to be a bit of a breeze and moisture in the ground stopping things getting too hot. 

[markyo]

Thankfully nowhere near the temps predicted in South Yorkshire,just scrapped 26c which will be a max today i suspect. Lot better than i was expecting!

[Met.]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

Thankfully nowhere near the temps predicted in South Yorkshire,just scrapped 26c which will be a max today i suspect. Lot better than i was expecting!

You must live upland then, because it's just reached 29°C here.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

Apologies for the subject matter but I think it is useful to know.

Hot versus cold deaths is often an ill-informed debate. UK baseline deaths is usually around 9,000 per week in summer. It increases steadily into winter as it gets colder so there is an argument warm weather is good as it reduces deaths. Winter cold snaps of several frosty days or more show up every time as a spike of maybe 2,000 to 5,000 deaths per week, usually mostly through indirect issues like flu and the effects of cold on other illnesses. Media hype up deaths from heat but, in reality, the numbers from heat are small and seem to be offset by people reducing deaths elsewhere - perhaps relaxing instead of doing heavy work. It's possible overall death rates actually reduce sometimes when it's hot.  When we have heatwaves, there is usually no observable change in death rates from the 9,000 baseline. Observe the graphs below. See the cold weather spikes in previous years, and see how this year's warm February saved a few thousand lives. Cold winter weather kills many more than hot summer weather - at least in the UK it does.  It's worth remembering when the media are hyping how bad the heat is for health that we'd probably actually be better off if our climate warmed a bit, even if it meant more heatwaves. It's cold snaps that kill many more.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/810438/Weekly_all-cause_mortality_surveillance_week_25_2019_report.pdf

Apologies again for the subject matter again but I think it puts more context into the debate on how bad for health some hot weather is.

 

Currently dipped to 23.5C here after touching 26.1C. Given our suntrap garden averages 22C+ in summer, we have not reached the heatwave threshold of 5C over average yet even for one day. It is quite a hot day, though, and I will be going to the pub shortly to enjoy it without feeling guilty for wishing for a taste of the weather others were getting!

 

 

 

Interesting but it hardly goes back a long period of time that chart, agree in general warm weather is more conductive to better health than cold but in my lifetime I've known flu outbreaks in almost as many mild winters as cold. strangely you would have thought the 2017/18 spike would have shot up later in the winter but doesn't really considering that's about the coldest week we had at least in the last 20 years or so...26.8c currently

Edited June 29, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[markyo]

18 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

You must live upland then, because it's just reached 29°C here.

Top end of Grenoside Sheffield,nearly into Bradfield so quite high up thankfully! Nice breeze is also helping it feel much better.

Edited June 29, 2019 by markyo

[matty007]

1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

40 deg will not be breached

2-3 days of temperatures like today and the 20-25c isotherm holding on with a southerly wind...yes we would absolutely hit 40c

[danm]

It’s peaked at 34c here today in London, absolutely scorching! Feels like I’m on holiday in the Med. 

[Stabilo19]

13 minutes ago, matty007 said:

2-3 days of temperatures like today and the 20-25c isotherm holding on with a southerly wind...yes we would absolutely hit 40c

We absolutely would not be hitting 40 degrees. The June record is 35 degrees..

4 hours ago, matty007 said:

With 3-4 hours warming to go, no cloud, and a mere 7mph southerly? I doubt it. It will rise more than that. 36-37c 

Again no, most places have peaked at 32, and the hottest have reached 34, perhaps 35 with verification.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

This mornings peak was 30.8c this afternoons peak so far is 34.0c giving an increase of 3.2c

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Zesyph said:

Saw this on twitter hope its just a joke. Isnt this a bit too close to the runway? For me at least. 

 

This has been covered before - the runway and jets make no difference. Locations in urban areas probably are more Dubois do to the UHI effect.

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This mornings peak was 30.8c this afternoons peak so far is 34.0c giving an increase of 3.2c

It always works this way....some people expect the same rate of increase through the afternoon but this doesn’t really tend to happen.

[hillbilly]

29 minutes ago, matty007 said:

2-3 days of temperatures like today and the 20-25c isotherm holding on with a southerly wind...yes we would absolutely hit 40c

There have only been 2 occasions where it has breached 37 deg in this country  .Paris which is way further south and inland has only hit 40.1. On that basis it would take something extraordinary even by todays standards to breach 40deg

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

There have only been 2 occasions where it has breached 37 deg in this country  .Paris which is way further south and inland has only hit 40.1. On that basis it would take something extraordinary even by todays standards to breach 40deg

Both of those occasions have been post-1990 to be fair, and it seems like we’ve been recording higher max temperatures in recent years. 

Everything would have to line up perfectly to break 40C but it will probably happen eventually, unless you think the 2003 record will stand forever.

Edited June 29, 2019 by cheese

[johnholmes]

43 minutes ago, markyo said:

Top end of Grenoside Sheffield,nearly into Bradfield so quite high up thankfully! Nice breeze is also helping it feel much better.

Which is probably the main reason you are less hot than folk lower down