Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for East of England, London & South east England

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 11:51 on Fri 21 Jun 2019

There is a 70% probability of heat health criteria being met between 0800 on Tuesday and 0800 on Thursday in parts of England.

A spell of very warm and locally hot, humid weather is likely to begin this coming weekend with temperatures gradually climbing during next week, particularly in south east England where trigger criteria looks likely to be met. There is increased confidence of this happening, although details of exact temperatures remain a little uncertain at this time. With this hot weather, there is an increased risk of rain and thunderstorms especially in the North and West of England. This alert may be revised on Monday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for East of England, London & South east England

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 11:51 on Fri 21 Jun 2019

There is a 70% probability of heat health criteria being met between 0800 on Tuesday and 0800 on Thursday in parts of England.

A spell of very warm and locally hot, humid weather is likely to begin this coming weekend with temperatures gradually climbing during next week, particularly in south east England where trigger criteria looks likely to be met. There is increased confidence of this happening, although details of exact temperatures remain a little uncertain at this time. With this hot weather, there is an increased risk of rain and thunderstorms especially in the North and West of England. This alert may be revised on Monday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

North and west of England???

Woohoooo- maybe some action in my locale- well actually im pretty much pennines but i'm in the game.

[95 Degrees]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

These app forecasts are a complete waste of time!! However, an easterly will still have an impact on east coasts even with high uppers, I guess, and quite a long way inland if the winds are high.

So how hot next week?? Sorry, this is going to be a long post...

I'm keeping a keen eye from an IMBY situation. I think this could be massive for the south coast. Most models just do not see hot spells for my neck of the woods in the Solent, but as soon as a settled spell turns to a light flow from the E, ENE or NE, the highest temperatures are often found here or down the road in Bournemouth. So many times the Met Office forecast has been 6C or 7C too low even on the same morning!

And many model predictions are absolutely perfect for a South Hampshire heatwave. Last night's ECM, for instance, is unbeatable - light easterly, extreme upper air, pressure 1020mb, origin of air continental which had already been hot for days, probably not too much cloud interference:

  

Drawing comparisons with similar events of the past - 2018 - Last year, almost identical time of year, Gosport reached 33.2C on this chart. Lots of similarities in the flow / action of a cut-off low pumping air off the continent. But look in the difference in uppers - nearly 8C.

   

I could allow for the fact that sea temperatures would have been higher, and ground drier - but even so, that would not compensate for an 8C difference in uppers. 

Now look at the temperatures the GFS forecast for 1st July 2018 just 36 hours before it happened!!!

  

wow - forecast temperature for the Gosport/Solent area, 22C; ACTUAL temperature, 33C!! It only started to catch up at T3 (though still not enough!!).

On to 2014 - a little remembered hot spell, since it was only really hot on the south coast - the east wind kept temperatures down elsewhere. Locally (and in the SW), 31C was reached on these charts:

  

Slightly more favourable time of year, perhaps a more stable high, perhaps a little flow, but more of a North Sea element than 2018. Yet we were above 30C daily in the Solent that week in just 12C uppers. And the summer up to that date had been nothing special.

Going back to an even more famous event - look at the similarities with next week!! August 1995. 32C/33C recorded widely on the south coast on these charts.

  

Not a bad match for next week! Yet similar results to 2018: 16C uppers resulting in 33C. Again, we can factor in the hot weather before this date, exceptionally good sea temperatures. But can that really account for all the difference that will be made between the uppers in these situations, and the uppers forecast for next week?

So finally, I try to think - specifically for the Solent - have there been examples of high uppers not resulting in hot temperatures on an easterly flow at this time of year?

In all honesty, I can't think of any examples in mid-summer where a light easterly in settled conditions, which were preceded by some warm days, did not result in a 17C hike on the upper air temperature recorded except when under a frontal system or thundery activity. 

So to sum up ... I'm going to stick my neck out ... **IF** the most favourable models verify for next Thursday / Friday ... then I'm predicting a temperature of between 35C and 38C right here on the South Coast.  

Would be quite something to be sitting down on Southsea Common with temperatures over 30c! as you stated it happened mutliple times at the start of July last year, very exicting times ahead. Keep up the great posts.

[Schnee]

I just got the payment for solar feed-in and the home A/C has been serviced. Bring it on, I shall be chilling watching the storm development.

[Summer Sun]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

North and west of England???

Woohoooo- maybe some action in my locale- well actually im pretty much pennines but i'm in the game.

Areas in green are not under any heatwave warnings for now

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Areas in green are not under any heatwave warnings for now

Aye, im well within the yellow, i think thats for storms tho.

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, im well within the yellow, i think thats for storms tho.

Are you referring to the thunderstorm warning or heatwave warning? as the latter is only for the south for now

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Are you referring to the thunderstorm warning or heatwave warning? as the latter is only for the south for now

Storms Gav

[Summer Sun]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Storms Gav

Looks like the potential for supercell development on Tuesday if we can read into the met office warning 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Looks like the potential for supercell development on Tuesday if we can read into the met office warning 

Eeeeeee that might be interesting !!

[Mr Frost]

36 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Are you referring to the thunderstorm warning or heatwave warning? as the latter is only for the south for now

Parts of Scotland also under a warning - flooding could be an issue!

Looks like it’s going to be one hell of a Summer week ahead for large parts of the UK and Ireland.

Edited June 21, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Mr Frost said:

Parts of Scotland also under a warning - looks like flooding could be an issue!

Looks like it’s going to be one hell of a Summer week ahead for large parts of the UK and Ireland.

Unusual for them to have issued the warnings so far in advance for thunderstorms whilst the areas that see the worst storms will be much narrower than highlighted they must certainly have some concern 

[Weather-history]

 

[Summer Sun]

Late next week

Warm & humid in south
Fresher in north
Some sunshine
Thunderstorms

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/48725342

[DAVID SNOW]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Late next week

Warm & humid in south
Fresher in north
Some sunshine
Thunderstorms

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/48725342

A well reasoned summation at this point. One thing is for sure though, and that is next week is not an August 2003 repeat.. Far from it.

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like the potential for supercell development on Tuesday if we can read into the met office warning 

Will we witness something close to the August 1981 supercell event, which brought daytime darkness?

[stevofunnelcl]

i personally do not think that Heathrow should be used for temperature records.

reason? so much tarmac, and even more when the new runway is built, literally hundreds of flights per day.

Big aircraft, and big engines, generate a lot of heat.

Surely, the temperature recorded there is being artificially altered (upwards)

Not surprising that nearly ever summer, it's Heathrow that records the highest temps, in the London area

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

40 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Oh, I understand. Yes, the all time record won't go. The ground temps are too low for that and it's not late enough in the year. If we had this setup on July 27th, then I think the all time record would go. 

 

But then 1st July 2015 and June 2017 came and changed all that. Its quickly becoming a myth that late July is the only time of year that UK can get high temperatures

[matty007]

10 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

But then 1st July 2015 and June 2017 came and changed all that. Its quickly becoming a myth that late July is the only time of year that UK can get high temperatures

I would say it's pretty much impossible for 38.5c to be beaten in late June. We are talking the all time record here, not a month record. July 1st was indeed a very potent plume, but still 'only' managed 36.7c. That is almost 2 degrees off the all time record. Doesn't sound much, but when you're talking about the UK, that extra 2 degrees is very hard to obtain. Would 38.5c have been beaten in July 2015 if the airmass had stayed for another few days...possible, but difficult in early July. 

To get close to, or breach, 40c in the UK you need an absolute perfect setup, and I mean perfect. Perfect wind direction, highest uppers possible, warm ground temps. Late July/early August is when the surface is at it's hottest, and you 100% need that at full strength to threaten 40c. 

 

Edited June 21, 2019 by matty007

[thestixx]

40 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Well looking at GFS 18z I feel we've all been teased and lured down the usual path only to be whacked across the face and laughed at. Next week still looks warm and thundery but not as extreme as they were showing, 32C in the SE at most and low to mid 20s elsewhere, Really hoping its just an outlier and things start catching on again tomorrow.

It's been great seeing the possible extremes though hasn't it.

[DAVID SNOW]

This thread really should be busier lol, anyway early next week looks warm but likely wet and thundery for some.

[Rammie]

Should be warm, but it should be warm in the last week of June . Probably nothing special, once people started saying the words 'nailed on' yesterday. Why do people say that about weather that's a week away?!? 

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, Rammie said:

Should be warm, but it should be warm in the last week of June . Probably nothing special, once people started saying the words 'nailed on' yesterday. Why do people say that about weather that's a week away?!? 

Who's said anything is 'nailed on', Rammie? And, surely, if the word 'should' can be applied to the weather, it 'should', if anything, be average?

[matt111]

Quoted from MOD thread

23 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

How about 25C and low humidity? 

Most of the population wouldn’t mind warm/hot weather if it wasn’t muggy or sticky.

I’m hoping for the models to show a less humid (but still sunny and warm) outcome.  

For a lot of the population yes they’d prefer less intense heat of course but then again this forum isn’t most of the population but a forum for weather enthusiasts.  I think a large percentage here, me included, want to see the extremes out of pure interest in what it ends up like. 

Not that sunny and warm with low humidity is a bad option but of course but for me it’s ‘bring on the heat!’ Thunderstorms welcome too.

I might say different after a few days of heat and high humidity of course ?