Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[B87]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

August was +1.7c above normal with 140% sunshine in London

August 1991 had a mean of 19.2c at Heathrow. The August average is 18.5c.

241.7 hours of sun is 118% of the August average (204.7 hours).

As for the 1991 summer as a whole (vs average):

Mean temp: 17.3c (-0.6c)

Rainfall: 207.5mm (153%)

Sunshine: 595.3 hours (96%)

Edited May 29, 2019 by B87

[Weather-history]

14 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

July and August 1991 were decent though..particularity August..was hot and sunny second half

I wonder how many realise that August 1991 was the 8th driest August on record for England and Wales, now 10th? 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Weather-history

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, B87 said:

August 1991 had a mean of 19.2c at Heathrow. The August average is 18.5c.

241.7 hours of sun is 118% of the August average (204.7 hours).

As for the 1991 summer as a whole (vs average):

Mean temp: 17.3c (-0.6c)

Rainfall: 207.5mm (153%)

Sunshine: 595.3 hours (96%)

Most of the rain that summer fell during June and July, August was a really dry month, 3rd driest August on record (now 4th) for south east England since 1873, 8th driest (now 10th) since 1873 for my area in the NW England

Edited May 30, 2019 by Weather-history

[B87]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder how many realise that August 1991 was the 8th driest August on record for England and Wales, now 10th? 

August 1991 was the 12th driest August at Heathrow.

1995: 0.3mm

2003: 10.4mm

1983: 11.4mm

1975: 13.3mm

1972: 15.4mm

1976: 16.4mm

1998: 16.6mm

1955: 17.8mm

1964: 21.2mm

2016: 21.6mm

1993: 23.8mm

1991: 26.0mm

[NeilN]

When was the last time we had a summer where 30c wasn't achieved? Surely the horror shows of 2007 and 2008 didn't see that? I am sure we are heading down that road this year. 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by nn2013

[Summer Sun]

15 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

When was the last time we had a summer where 30c wasn't achieved? Surely the horror shows of 2007 and 2008 didn't see that? I am sure we are heading down that road this year. 

2007 had a high of 30.1c

2008 had a high of 30.2c 

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, nn2013 said:

When was the last time we had a summer where 30c wasn't achieved? Surely the horror shows of 2007 and 2008 didn't see that? I am sure we are heading down that road this year. 

 

 

2007 hit it very late, I remember the comments around it. 2008 hit it earlier.

1993 was the last summer not to hit it.

[Sunny76]

I think the last time we failed to hit 30c was in 1993, and before that it was 1981.

[cheeky_monkey]

16 hours ago, B87 said:

August 1991 had a mean of 19.2c at Heathrow. The August average is 18.5c.

241.7 hours of sun is 118% of the August average (204.7 hours).

As for the 1991 summer as a whole (vs average):

Mean temp: 17.3c (-0.6c)

Rainfall: 207.5mm (153%)

Sunshine: 595.3 hours (96%)

there you go met office figures for 1991..seems different to yours.

aug1991.pdf

[B87]

44 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

there you go met office figures for 1991..seems different to yours.

aug1991.pdf 401.88 kB · 1 download

I am using the 1981-2010 averages. In 2021 I will start using the 1991-2020 averages.

That article is probably referring to the chilly 1961-1990 averages.

Edited May 30, 2019 by B87

[weatherguru14]

Looking ahead to the summer. if the wind doesn't drop its gonna be your typical English summer. which is basically unsettled with a few days here and there where its nice. with the weather being unsettled its gonna be difficult to see a gradual settling down and warming up scenario.But I live in  hope

[B87]

43 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Looking ahead to the summer. if the wind doesn't drop its gonna be your typical English summer. which is basically unsettled with a few days here and there where its nice. with the weather being unsettled its gonna be difficult to see a gradual settling down and warming up scenario.But I live in  hope

What you describe doesn't sound like a typical English summer for here. It sounds like a repeat of the 2007-2012 years.

[MP-R]

49 minutes ago, B87 said:

What you describe doesn't sound like a typical English summer for here. It sounds like a repeat of the 2007-2012 years.

Exactly. A typical UK summer is, in the main, settled with a few days here and there of unsettled. Not to be confused with sunny all the time or warm all the time, but pressure at the higher end of the scale.

[B87]

Just now, MP-R said:

Exactly. A typical UK summer is, in the main, settled with a few days here and there of unsettled. Not to be confused with sunny all the time or warm all the time, but pressure at the higher end of the scale.

A typical UK summer, at least in the London area, has the majority of days with partly cloudy skies, a light breeze with temperatures around 22-26c (and occasional days in the 30s or the high teens). It might rain once or twice a week, but not for very long.

[reef]

23 hours ago, B87 said:

I am using the 1981-2010 averages. In 2021 I will start using the 1991-2020 averages.

That article is probably referring to the chilly 1961-1990 averages.

Why on Earth are you using the 1981-2010 averages for 1991 then?

Its standard to use the most recent 30 year average, so for 1991 that is 1961-1990.

[B87]

33 minutes ago, reef said:

Why on Earth are you using the 1981-2010 averages for 1991 then?

Its standard to use the most recent 30 year average, so for 1991 that is 1961-1990.

Because the current set of averages is 81-10, and would represent 1991 well as that year was within the average period.

When the 1991-20 averages are out, I will reference those instead of 81-10.

[cheeky_monkey]

On 30/05/2019 at 08:07, B87 said:

I am using the 1981-2010 averages. In 2021 I will start using the 1991-2020 averages.

That article is probably referring to the chilly 1961-1990 averages.

i think i will stick with the met office figures...nice try though 

Edited May 31, 2019 by cheeky_monkey

[B87]

29 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i think i will stick with the met office figures...nice try though 

The figures I used ARE the Met Office figures, from 1981-2010.

[Thundery wintry showers]

By my estimations Heathrow's sunshine total for August 1991 was 129% of its 1961-1990 average, so not as high as the England SE/Central S region as a whole, but still pretty high.  An odd quirk is that the Augusts of 1989 and 1990 were both sunnier, but there were no comparably sunny Augusts from 1977 to 1988 inclusive.

One problem with comparing recent sunshine data for Heathrow against any long-term average is that the long term normals are based on Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorders (or estimated equivalents) but since 2005 Heathrow has used a Kipp-Zonen sunshine sensor which tends to record about 10-15% less sunshine in the summer months.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Thundery wintry showers

[B87]

18 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

By my estimations Heathrow's sunshine total for August 1991 was 129% of its 1961-1990 average, so not as high as the England SE/Central S region as a whole, but still pretty high.

One problem with comparing recent sunshine data for Heathrow against any long-term average is that the long term normals are based on Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorders (or estimated equivalents) but since 2005 Heathrow has used a Kipp-Zonen sunshine sensor which tends to record about 10-15% less sunshine in the summer months.

Kipp-Zonen recorders record more sunshine than Campbell-Stokes recorders in places like Poland and NZ (a 10.4% annual increase in Krakow).

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-014-1125-z

The current values should be converted to CS values for record continuity.

Edited May 31, 2019 by B87

[Paul]

The Netweather Summer forecast is now available - written by @Thundery wintry showers

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

The headline is for a close to average summer in both temperature and rainfall. With temperatures perhaps slightly warmer than average, but not on a par with last year.

[B87]

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

The Netweather Summer forecast is now available - written by @Thundery wintry showers

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

The headline is for a close to average summer in both temperature and rainfall. With temperatures perhaps slightly warmer than average, but not on a par with last year.

Another poor August then.

[Paul]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

Another poor August then.

Did you read the forecast? 

August is down to be about average temperature wise, and for much of the UK drier than average - albeit with low confidence. So, I don't know where you're getting 'poor' from, unless the only version of August that isn't poor in your eyes is 30c every day and no cloud.

[B87]

11 minutes ago, Paul said:

Did you read the forecast? 

August is down to be about average temperature wise, and for much of the UK drier than average - albeit with low confidence. So, I don't know where you're getting 'poor' from, unless the only version of August that isn't poor in your eyes is 30c every day and no cloud.

August 1993 and 2007 both had well below average temperatures. Highs only averaged 21.5c for those months in London, almost 2c below normal.

Edited May 31, 2019 by B87

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, B87 said:

August 1993 and 2007 both had well below average temperatures. Highs only averaged 21.5c.

Well below? That's about average for highs for August in the SE and warmer than average in every other part of the country!

The average max for the SE in August (1981-2010) is 21.8c. The average max for England overall is 20.7c. And the 71-00 averages are lower than that @ 20.5c for the England and 21.6c in the southeast.