Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[Sunny76]

22 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

What do you expect an entire month to be nice in the UK? It doesn't work that way. Not even in the sub tropical south.

I give a reprisal of the weather and its been ok.. not amazing. But this is the  UK. May coulda been a lot worse.. and often is.

Yes I’ll agree with you there. May 2013 and 2016 were much worse and 1996 was awful.

[Sunny76]

21 hours ago, Freeze said:

When using the 61-90 averages.. I wasn’t around during that time, but during my lifetime so far this has definitely been a chillier than normal spring apart from a couple warmer spells, constant northern blocking...

Yes, it may have been slight above average in some areas, but apart from the warm spell in mid April, the spring has been quite chilly at times. The lack of a sustained warm spell has been more noticeable this year.

[Met.]

Since 12th May hasn't been bad here, dry but more cloudy than sunny with reasonable temperatures. Days 3-11 really ruined the start to the month, those were puerile garbage right out of late autumn. The temperature has just been very consistent and boring, no ups or downs particularly since 12th, I would prefer more variation and more convective weather as well. 

[Met.]

4 hours ago, Sir Mim said:

PlEnTy Of WaRm SuNsHiNe ToDaY is the Met Office's summary for today's weather for my region.  Is that really how a professional forecasting body should word things?  I understand it's aimed at the general public, but really?  Why not use something more neutral like "it'll be a mostly sunny day today"?

 

How many times do I need to remind people - not everyone likes the damn sun.  

How is "plenty of warm sunshine" not neutral? Sun feels warm, which is an objective statement, isn't it? 

Also, seeing as we live in one of the cloudiest countries in the world, what happened to cause so many people on this forum to hate the sun and anything summer related exactly? Try imagining what it must be like for people who live in Texas or Arizona. The UK is a cloudy weather lover's paradise.

With regards those charts about next week's weather, well we just need that high to be slightly east of the UK to pull those really nice warmer airmasses up over, highs sitting out in the atlantic giving us maritime boring north westerly cloudy rubbish don't excite me much. Also, 850 temps of 0 over the UK on 31st May is lame. 

Edited May 23, 2019 by Thundershine

[Wimbledon88]

25c just now in the capital. Not an oppressive heat either. Fair weather cloud. Very nice.  

[thestixx]

I remember the World Cup in Germany 2006, the spring had seen terrible weather and on June 1st...boom... A huge anticyclone plonked itself over Europe and I spent a month travelling round Germany under azure blue skies and blazing sun. It's looking like summer '19 will start with a similar aplomb (albeit an Azores high initially) hope we get a similar summer to that. Wasn't July '06 an absolute steamer too?

[matt111]

Talking of the World Cup, the Cricket World Cup, which is in England and Wales this year, is about to start. Had it been last year it would have been perfectly timed to be during the long dry spell we had last year, wonder how lucky they'll get with it this year?

[Weather-history]

Manchester summer indices

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom 

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
2018 272
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
2013 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243 
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
2014 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
1952 198
2000 198
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1915 196
1981 196
1902 195
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1953 193
1966 192
1998 192
2015 192
2017 192
1988 191
2010 191
1910 190
1936 190
2016 189
1965 189
1986 189
1916 188
1972 185
1958 184
1985 180
2011 179
1922 178
1938 177
1948 176
1927 175
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1909 171
1946 170
1987 169
2008 168
2012 164
1924 158
1912 156
1956 155
1907 147
1954 143

[summer blizzard]

Feeling very confident about my 2010/2017 type prediction at the moment.

The good news for folks wanting June heat is that the Euro appears to be finally latching on to a genuine signal for a pressure build at mid to high latitudes caused by the movement of a Kelvin wave through the Pacific over the past month (actually the most impressive wave of the year) and this should support a pressure build near us through at least mid-June (exempting the risk of retrogression).

 

The bad news (and good news for those of us who don't much like summer the deeper we get) is that the Nino has continued to weaken at the sub-surface such that the sub-surface is now net negative and unless we see a wave of similar strength repeat, we are probably looking at the Nino collapsing pretty quickly through mid to late summer. Negative tendancy in prior summers (and associated trade wind bursts over the Pacific) have over the past decade or so tended to portend summers that go out with a whimper. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe time for a 252 WH, 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Feeling very confident about my 2010/2017 type prediction at the moment.

The good news for folks wanting June heat is that the Euro appears to be finally latching on to a genuine signal for a pressure build at mid to high latitudes caused by the movement of a Kelvin wave through the Pacific over the past month (actually the most impressive wave of the year) and this should support a pressure build near us through at least mid-June (exempting the risk of retrogression).

 

The bad news (and good news for those of us who don't much like summer the deeper we get) is that the Nino has continued to weaken at the sub-surface such that the sub-surface is now net negative and unless we see a wave of similar strength repeat, we are probably looking at the Nino collapsing pretty quickly through mid to late summer. Negative tendancy in prior summers (and associated trade wind bursts over the Pacific) have over the past decade or so tended to portend summers that go out with a whimper. 

Summers here since 2003 have preety much gone out with a whimper in early August.. always feel May-July is the best time for settled conditions, the atlantic traditionally takes over come August - not always..

 

Alas hopefully we will see some decent summery weather during the first half of the summer at least - optimum time in my opinion, long days, lots of summer still to come.. 

[Sir Mim]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Model thread badly moderated again - heat/drought ramping being allowed when the correct place for it is this thread.  Already a post today claiming an even more extreme drought last summer than this, which is (IMO) a deliberately divisive comment that ignores practical considerations - do warnings of water shortages, drone shots of massive (by British standards) wildfires and concerns for the elderly and those with long-term health problems not mean anything nowadays?  I'm all for wanting a warm summer, but ever-increasing heat and drought can only continue for a certain length of time before they become problematic.  I have a feeling that some on Netweather will never be satisfied irrespective of how hot it becomes.  40C?  Why can't it be 45C?  

Rant over.

Great comment, and I agree with you about the problems brought by drought and extreme heat.

 

Personally I'm hoping for a stereotypically "British" summer with mostly showery weather, a bit of dry sunny weather and the occasional Spanish plume.  That, or a total washout.  

[Wimbledon88]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Model thread badly moderated again - heat/drought ramping being allowed when the correct place for it is this thread.  Already a post today claiming an even more extreme drought last summer than this, which is (IMO) a deliberately divisive comment that ignores practical considerations - do warnings of water shortages, drone shots of massive (by British standards) wildfires and concerns for the elderly and those with long-term health problems not mean anything nowadays?  I'm all for wanting a warm summer, but ever-increasing heat and drought can only continue for a certain length of time before they become problematic.  I have a feeling that some on Netweather will never be satisfied irrespective of how hot it becomes.  40C?  Why can't it be 45C?  

Rant over.

Couldn't agree more. I think the moderators, like the usual posters on there, have a weird desire to live in a scorched parched dust bowl. And woe betide anyone who posts otherwise.

Sad demise of what used to be a good site. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Sir Mim said:

Great comment, and I agree with you about the problems brought by drought and extreme heat.

 

Personally I'm hoping for a stereotypically "British" summer with mostly showery weather, a bit of dry sunny weather and the occasional Spanish plume.  That, or a total washout.  

Yes, something of everything (including some hot, dry weather) would be fine.  I'm not a fan of 2007-esque summers.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Couldn't agree more. I think the moderators, like the usual posters on there, have a weird desire to live in a scorched parched dust bowl. And woe betide anyone who posts otherwise.

Sad demise of what used to be a good site. 

I'm not sure that I think that the Moderators agree necessarily, more that they're perhaps allowing a minority of posters to bring ramping and passive-aggressive comments regarding preferences into a thread that should be objective.  I've nothing against heat ramping in this thread; I'm not a fan of being accused of wanting to spoil people's enjoyment by asking for some rain and a few cooler periods during the summer.  I'm also not going to respond positively to hearing when extreme heat appears in the models that we all agree with how great it is when some of us would rather have 25C and 50% relative humidity (which is still fine for outdoor events and entertaining) than 32C and 65-70% humidity.

Edited May 25, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Mapantz]

Please use the report button if you think a post is going beyond the limits of the rules. I may be a moderator, but I don't sit at the PC waiting to see an off-topic post etc. This great weather has me working in the garden a lot so I may only pop on via mobile occasionally, and I might not even venture in to the model discussion thread. We get notified if a report comes through, so whoever's online and see's it first can act on it. We cannot act on something we don't see or may have missed, unless a report has come in.

[markyo]

A repeat of 2018 would be very hard for many to take i'm afraid, also extremely hard for wildlife and farming. I know folk on here seem to wish for conditions like we had last summer but a normal UK summer would be by fat a better out come. Ramping up the heat,as many do in my view just antagonises the folk who suffered last year. Sleepless nights,fatigue for those who can't tolerate heat well is not something to be taken lightly. I agree,its a sad demise of a once great site.

Edited May 25, 2019 by markyo

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, markyo said:

A repeat of 2018 would be very hard for many to take i'm afraid, also extremely hard for wildlife and farming. I know folk on here seem to wish for conditions like we had last summer but a normal UK summer would be by fat a better out come. Ramping up the heat,as many do in my view just antagonises the folk who suffered last year. Sleepless nights,fatigue for those who can't tolerate heat well is not something to be taken lightly. I agree,its a sad demise of a once great site.

A guilt tripping post is not necessary.

Cold and snow gets ramped up in Winter and there's plenty that don't enjoy those conditions, either, so it's swings and roundabouts. Let's not keep going down this route - it happens every year. No need for it!

[Met.]

14 minutes ago, markyo said:

A repeat of 2018 would be very hard for many to take i'm afraid, also extremely hard for wildlife and farming. I know folk on here seem to wish for conditions like we had last summer but a normal UK summer would be by fat a better out come. Ramping up the heat,as many do in my view just antagonises the folk who suffered last year. Sleepless nights,fatigue for those who can't tolerate heat well is not something to be taken lightly. I agree,its a sad demise of a once great site.

I don't agree, this site is going to have people who like cold in winter and heat in summer. If anybody gets antagonised by the fact someone has a different preference, that's their problem. The cold ramping in winter is massively greater than the reverse too. You also have an unusually low threshold of heat tolerance, that most people do not share, so please bare in mind that what is too hot for you is quite comfortable for most people.

Edited May 25, 2019 by Thundershine

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm not sure that I think that the Moderators agree necessarily, more that they're perhaps allowing a minority of posters to bring ramping and passive-aggressive comments regarding preferences into a thread that should be objective.  I've nothing against heat ramping in this thread; I'm not a fan of being accused of wanting to spoil people's enjoyment by asking for some rain and a few cooler periods during the summer.  I'm also not going to respond positively to hearing when extreme heat appears in the models that we all agree with how great it is when some of us would rather have 25C and 50% relative humidity (which is still fine for outdoor events and entertaining) than 32C and 65-70% humidity.

Despite being a moderator/host myself (like Mapantz), I suppose that’s the thing about the model thread is that it should cater to all preferences, whether you like hot and dry, hot and thundery, warm and dry, warm and wet, cool and dry, cool and wet (or wintry) weather, etc. Clearly not just applicable for Summer, but for the other seasons too. I must admit, I don’t like it when people get put down for wanting the weather they desire. If someone wants warm and changeable weather in Summer, then fair play to them! 

I admit to enjoying hot weather, but 25*C is a nice temperature. And sometimes, when hot days lead to warm, sticky, nights, it can make it an obstacle to get a comfortable night’s sleep!

Edited May 25, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Zesyph]

Main difference is that we rarely get prolonged cold whereas heat is always guaranteed in the summer be it 2 weeks or 2 months long. Coldies aren't as greedy imo a short lived easterly satisfies everyone. I dont understand why anyone would want months on end of high 20s to low 30s like last summer. 

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

Main difference is that we rarely get prolonged cold whereas heat is always guaranteed in the summer be it 2 weeks or 2 months long. Coldies aren't as greedy imo a short lived easterly satisfies everyone. I dont understand why anyone would want months on end of high 20s to low 30s like last summer. 

You're kidding, right? We might only get three flakes (of actual snow) during a whole winter, but the ramping starts in October and doesn't stop till May...If I had half the snow the rampers predicted, I'd still be digging myself out!

In the immortal words of Dr McCoy:  

[Met.]

33 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

Main difference is that we rarely get prolonged cold whereas heat is always guaranteed in the summer be it 2 weeks or 2 months long. Coldies aren't as greedy imo a short lived easterly satisfies everyone. I dont understand why anyone would want months on end of high 20s to low 30s like last summer. 

That's a matter of what you'd consider "heat". Where I live averages a max of 20°C in summer - which is cool personally. We have very cool summers. I consider averages of 20°C at night to be good summer weather, with highs of 32-35°C. Of course, that can never happen in the UK's climate, and nor do I expect it to, but to me most of the UK summer is very poor and cool indeed and I'm not greedy for looking forward to the few days (and yes, it's very few) of actually very warm or hot weather that the climate can offer. 

I wonder if wanting snow in October through til May is not greedy either then is it? 

Edited May 25, 2019 by Thundershine

[Frost HoIIow]

3 hours ago, markyo said:

A repeat of 2018 would be very hard for many to take i'm afraid, also extremely hard for wildlife and farming. I know folk on here seem to wish for conditions like we had last summer but a normal UK summer would be by fat a better out come. Ramping up the heat,as many do in my view just antagonises the folk who suffered last year. Sleepless nights,fatigue for those who can't tolerate heat well is not something to be taken lightly. I agree,its a sad demise of a once great site.

Indeed. It's easier to warm up in cold weather than to cool down in hot weather - look how many people died across Europe during the 2003 heatwave. With that in mind the vast majority of homes in the UK aren't built for conditions like last Summer. Unless people buy air conditioning eventually indoors becomes like a greenhouse after persistent hot weather.

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Indeed. It's easier to warm up in cold weather than to cool down in hot weather - look how many people died across Europe during the 2003 heatwave. With that in mind the vast majority of homes in the UK aren't built for conditions like last Summer. Unless people buy air conditioning eventually indoors becomes like a greenhouse after persistent hot weather.

Not only is guilt-tripping frowned upon, numbers quoted in isolation seldom tell the whole story:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/12/17/cold-temperatures-kill-more-americans-than-hot-ones-cdc-data-show/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4411caead9f9