Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[SunnyDazee]

I’ve changed my mind on my prediction of the summer. I think it’ll be a very changeable, wet and slightly above average warmth of summer. May tends to be more often than not an indicator, even if there are some exceptions, and May is looking poor for my perspective 

[Met.]

I hope it has a lot of thunderstorm activity. I haven't seen a proper thunderstorm since 2016. Don't care about really sunny dry weather like last year, though I like warmer than average conditions. Warm and convective would do nicely. 

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, SunnyDazee said:

I’ve changed my mind on my prediction of the summer. I think it’ll be a very changeable, wet and slightly above average warmth of summer. May tends to be more often than not an indicator, even if there are some exceptions, and May is looking poor for my perspective 

Not that I'm a fan of hot weather but as you say exceptions for sure as May 2003 was mostly cool & unsettled until the last few days of the month but look how the following Summer turned out with the hottest temp ever recorded in the UK. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Frost HoIIow

[SunnyDazee]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Not that I'm a fan of hot weather but as you say exceptions for sure as May 2003 was mostly cool & unsettled until the last few days of the month but look how the following Summer turned out with the hottest temp ever recorded in the UK. 

Which is true. That probably means that if this summer does become warm and settled, it’s likely to be towards the back end of summer. It was early to mid August in 2003 I think when the hot temps were reached (you might be able to correct me) but yes there are certainly exceptions. May looks woeful for the most part and the start of June doesn’t look much better at the moment though

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Thundershine said:

I hope it has a lot of thunderstorm activity. I haven't seen a proper thunderstorm since 2016. Don't care about really sunny dry weather like last year, though I like warmer than average conditions. Warm and convective would do nicely. 

I think it’s going to be a thundery one. Similar to 1999, or 1983. 

[Sunny76]

14 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

Which is true. That probably means that if this summer does become warm and settled, it’s likely to be towards the back end of summer. It was early to mid August in 2003 I think when the hot temps were reached (you might be able to correct me) but yes there are certainly exceptions. May looks woeful for the most part and the start of June doesn’t look much better at the moment though

If that happens, it will be the poorest start to the early summer since 2016. May was chilly that year and parts of June were quite poor. Although, it turned warmer and humid with those thunderstorms later in the month.

 

[SunnyDazee]

21 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

If that happens, it will be the poorest start to the early summer since 2016. May was chilly that year and parts of June were quite poor. Although, it turned warmer and humid with those thunderstorms later in the month.

 

Certainly possible here. I doubt summer will be cool or cold when the Earth is warming so rapidly even when it may be rainy. Solar minimum is due soon which could lead to some duller summers though

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, SunnyDazee said:

Certainly possible here. I doubt summer will be cool or cold when the Earth is warming so rapidly even when it may be rainy. Solar minimum is due soon which could lead to some duller summers though

I still have a feeling cooler summers will still occur, despite a warming trend. In fact, I think they will be a feature of a warming trend. Someone I know said the 2019/2020 autumn winter could see a shift back to a cooler phase for a few years, which could mean a repeat of 2007-12, 85-88 again. 

But, the plus side will be maybe more snowy spells. 

[damianslaw]

There have been pronounced shifts in prevailing conditions over the last 3 decades or so, with long periods of similar weather, the shifts have often come very quickly as follows:

Autumn 1988 - Summer 1992, a period of abundant dryness and warmth, punctuated with shortlived wet spells, a run of mild winters and warm summers, ending in the summer of 92, the colder winter of 90/91 was a blip as well as the cold June of 1991.

Summer 92 - Spring 95  - a very wet unsettled period throughout with the atlantic dominant

Spring 95 - Summer 97 - a very dry period, atlantic blocked, very warm summery periods, colder continental winter episodes

Summer 97 - Spring 03 - generally a very wet period atlantic dominant again and mostly warmer than normal

Spring 03 - Summer 07 a mixed period, some lengthy dry periods interspersed with wet conditions, mostly appreciably warmer than normal as well, exception winter of 05/06 and also end winter 05

Summer 07 - Summer 13 - a colder period, cold snowy winters, cooler wet summers

Summer 13 onwards to now - a much warmer phase, topsy turvy wet to start trending much drier and continental in influence 

Could summer 19 or autumn 19 mark the start of the next shift - one is long due...

[cheeky_monkey]

4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think it’s going to be a thundery one. Similar to 1999, or 1983. 

i dont remember 1983 being thundery..1982 was as was 1984 but not 83..1994 was thundery esp July 

[Sunny76]

1994 had a very thundery late June, July(it was the hottest July since 1983 at that point), and thundery early August.

I only recall late May 1984 having thunderstorms in London, but could be wrong. 

[Earthshine]

18 hours ago, Thundershine said:

I hope it has a lot of thunderstorm activity. I haven't seen a proper thunderstorm since 2016. Don't care about really sunny dry weather like last year, though I like warmer than average conditions. Warm and convective would do nicely. 

Interestingly enough, May 2018 brought one the most incredible thunderstorms I've seen in years.  Overnight the sky was like a disco, completely ablaze with electricity.  Although I agree on the summers themselves in recent years have been lacking.

[Met.]

57 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Interestingly enough, May 2018 brought one the most incredible thunderstorms I've seen in years.  Overnight the sky was like a disco, completely ablaze with electricity.  Although I agree on the summers themselves in recent years have been lacking.

Yeah south of the Midlands had some really good storms in late May last year but sadly they all missed northern England. I used to live in the South and had some good night time storms there though. 

[Sunny76]

On 05/05/2019 at 13:27, Thundershine said:

Yeah south of the Midlands had some really good storms in late May last year but sadly they all missed northern England. I used to live in the South and had some good night time storms there though. 

I think summer 2019 will buck the trend of lack of widespread thunderstorms.

[kold weather]

Ben Noll has recently tweeted saying latest ECM long range is hot for Europe. Also looks drier than normal from anomaly map.

Just something to think about...hot Europe may not necessarily mean hot here of course even if it is accurate.

[markyo]

47 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ben Noll has recently tweeted saying latest ECM long range is hot for Europe. Also looks drier than normal from anomaly map.

Just something to think about...hot Europe may not necessarily mean hot here of course even if it is accurate.

Fingers crossed your right,another 2018 summer would be very tough to take in the UK,the lack of rainfall would be a major issue.

[Thundery wintry showers]

As far as I'm aware 1982 and 1983 were both thundery years across much of England, primarily due to an exceptionally high frequency of thunder in June 1982 and May 1983.  Averaged over the UK those months may well have been beaten by June 1980, which wasn't quite as thundery over most of England but was more so over Scotland and the north-east of England, as thunderstorms from Spanish plume events penetrated a long way north early in that month and there were several days of thundery showers and sunny intervals starting on the 22nd.  Note that unlike say July 1994, these thundery months in the 1980s were generally dull and wet.

Also a correction: May 2016 was pretty warm overall, though not as warm as those of 2017 and 2018.  June 2016 was also warm away from the east coast, albeit cloudy and wet for most.  We had cool Mays by recent standards in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2015 though, and the last three were followed by cool Junes as well, though only 2012 sticks out for me as a washout.

Today's synoptics remind me a lot of 14 May 1995, a day that stuck a bit in my memory because in Tyneside we had a cold front draped across the region and it started off with sunshine and showers and some potent convective cells and then turned into persistent rain in the afternoon, and it's been a similar story across the north-east today, but with the front a bit further south, with the majority of the rain instead over north and east Yorkshire.  In the case of May 1995 we had a southerly tracking low bringing dull cold wet weather and localised snow on the 16th/17th followed by a return to sunshine and showers, but a sudden switch happened on the 20th/21st and then from the 21st to 28th we had warm southerlies.  It looks like things could similarly switch around this month in about a week's time, with high pressure possibly building further west than on 21-28 May 1995, which means we could be faced with a spell of dry, sunny and fairly warm weather towards the middle of May 2019.

Edited May 6, 2019 by Thundery wintry showers

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

 

Today's synoptics remind me a lot of 14 May 1995, a day that stuck a bit in my memory because in Tyneside we had a cold front draped across the region and it started off with sunshine and showers and some potent convective cells and then turned into persistent rain in the afternoon, and it's been a similar story across the north-east today, but with the front a bit further south, with the majority of the rain instead over north and east Yorkshire.  In the case of May 1995 we had a southerly tracking low bringing dull cold wet weather and localised snow on the 16th/17th followed by a return to sunshine and showers, but a sudden switch happened on the 20th/21st and then from the 21st to 28th we had warm southerlies.  It looks like things could similarly switch around this month in about a week's time, with high pressure possibly building further west than on 21-28 May 1995, which means we could be faced with a spell of dry, sunny and fairly warm weather towards the middle of May 2019.

17th May 1995 was one of the coldest May days that I could remember, it turned warmer on the 22nd and we had thunder later on the 24th. There was a terrible plane crash in Yorkshire that day, I think a dozen people were killed and not sure if there was a connection between the crash and thunderstorms in the area at the time. 

[summer blizzard]

I still lean to a front load personally, sub surface anomalies at the date line are now -2 which means that when Nino goes, it may go rather quickly.

[Sunny76]

15 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I still lean to a front load personally, sub surface anomalies at the date line are now -2 which means that when Nino goes, it may go rather quickly.

My personal summer prediction is:

A poor first half of May, which is looking likely. Late warm to hot spell from around 20th May, until the 31st. This will be the first true hot spell of weather. Early June will continue with warm sunny and even hot conditions, but thunderstorms will become a regular feature from the 5th onwards. Cool and dull conditions will dominate the rest of June. June will end up below average.

July will see an improvement, sunny and warm conditions for the first half, mostly 22c- 25c, with the odd 28c day. Things will become more humid and nights will be sticky and close. More thunderstorms will break out around the 12th-15th, with daytime storms(some severe)becoming more widespread, causing daytime darkness(similar to 1981), with night time storms occurring frequently.

The second half of July will be very wet and cool, even cold with daytime maxes no higher than 18-19c in the south of England.

July will still end up close to average.

August will start off similar to June and July, with a sunny hot spell from the 1st until the 8th. Hot and humid conditions will be the order of the day, and the hottest temperatures of the year will occur at this time. 30-32c will be recorded quite widely, and night time temps will be warm and muggy, with 19-20c quite widespread. More severe thunderstorms will break out between the 8th until the 12th, and this will bring a change of weather. Most places will only reach 18-20c for the rest of the month. Cool and cloudy conditions will prevail for the rest of this period.

A poor summer overall, with warm or hot interludes and thunderstorms. 

Thats my predication for 2019.

Just a wild guess mind

[summer blizzard]

53 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

My personal summer prediction is:

A poor first half of May, which is looking likely. Late warm to hot spell from around 20th May, until the 31st. This will be the first true hot spell of weather. Early June will continue with warm sunny and even hot conditions, but thunderstorms will become a regular feature from the 5th onwards. Cool and dull conditions will dominate the rest of June. June will end up below average.

July will see an improvement, sunny and warm conditions for the first half, mostly 22c- 25c, with the odd 28c day. Things will become more humid and nights will be sticky and close. More thunderstorms will break out around the 12th-15th, with daytime storms(some severe)becoming more widespread, causing daytime darkness(similar to 1981), with night time storms occurring frequently.

The second half of July will be very wet and cool, even cold with daytime maxes no higher than 18-19c in the south of England.

July will still end up close to average.

August will start off similar to June and July, with a sunny hot spell from the 1st until the 8th. Hot and humid conditions will be the order of the day, and the hottest temperatures of the year will occur at this time. 30-32c will be recorded quite widely, and night time temps will be warm and muggy, with 19-20c quite widespread. More severe thunderstorms will break out between the 8th until the 12th, and this will bring a change of weather. Most places will only reach 18-20c for the rest of the month. Cool and cloudy conditions will prevail for the rest of this period.

A poor summer overall, with warm or hot interludes and thunderstorms. 

Thats my predication for 2019.

Just a wild guess mind

I'm not quite that downbeat though the forecast was interesting. There is a standing wave at the moment and probably enough support for another to start in 6-8 weeks which should encourage mid to high lattitude blocking.

My own suspicion is that mid-May to Mid-June will be largely settled and warmer than average (there's a chance of retrogression but i suspect high pressure to our north and east is more likely than north and west). 

The second half of June will probably be a relatively poor period (enhanced westerlies, cooler and wetter than average especially in the north). 

July is well timed in the tropical cycle to take advantage of my predicted final wave crossing the Pacific and may well turn out to be much warmer and drier than average.

August i suspect will be both cooler and wetter than average much like the Augusts of 2010 and 2017 with enhanced trade activity in the Pacific and mid-lattitude westerlies. 

CET might look something like..

June: 15C

July 18C

August: 15C

Not far off the summer of 2014. 

[Sunny76]

9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I'm not quite that downbeat though the forecast was interesting. There is a standing wave at the moment and probably enough support for another to start in 6-8 weeks which should encourage mid to high lattitude blocking.

My own suspicion is that mid-May to Mid-June will be largely settled and warmer than average (there's a chance of retrogression but i suspect high pressure to our north and east is more likely than north and west). 

The second half of June will probably be a relatively poor period (enhanced westerlies, cooler and wetter than average especially in the north). 

July is well timed in the tropical cycle to take advantage of my predicted final wave crossing the Pacific and may well turn out to be much warmer and drier than average.

August i suspect will be both cooler and wetter than average much like the Augusts of 2010 and 2017 with enhanced trade activity in the Pacific and mid-lattitude westerlies. 

CET might look something like..

June: 15C

July 18C

August: 15C

Not far off the summer of 2014. 

Another poor August then.

i actually thought 2018 was a decent August, despite the cooler and cloudier second half. It was hot at the start, and the overall summer was good, so the poor second half didn’t seem to register with me.

August 2017 was poor though. Summer ended abruptly after those mid July storms in the south they yesr.

[NeilN]

Why is August the weakest summer month lately? If it wasn't for the soggy second half last year, it could have been an epic summer (I'm not going to forget it as I had a mini flood in my flat!).

I can't see a repeat of last year. Could either be average i.e something like 2014 / 2016 or as it's been overdue something like 2011 / 2012. I wouldn't even rule out a 2007 repeat even. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Why is August the weakest summer month lately? If it wasn't for the soggy second half last year, it could have been an epic summer (I'm not going to forget it as I had a mini flood in my flat!).

I can't see a repeat of last year. Could either be average i.e something like 2014 / 2016 or as it's been overdue something like 2011 / 2012. I wouldn't even rule out a 2007 repeat even. 

Atlantic air dominates August, so worst summer month Scotland/Ireland, probably best summer month S/SE

[reef]

24 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Why is August the weakest summer month lately? If it wasn't for the soggy second half last year, it could have been an epic summer (I'm not going to forget it as I had a mini flood in my flat!).

I can't see a repeat of last year. Could either be average i.e something like 2014 / 2016 or as it's been overdue something like 2011 / 2012. I wouldn't even rule out a 2007 repeat even. 

August has never been a reliably warm month. There have only in fact been 19 Augusts with a CET of above 17.5C back to 1659. It's never been a very sunny month either.

I think perceptions are clouded by the unusual number of better than average Augusts in the 1990s and early 2000s.