Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[SunnyDazee]

I’ve noticed we don’t have a summer weather forum open yet, so I thought I’d start this up to get everyone’s idea on the summer. The current predictions from the long range forecasts indicate a very very warm summer again. I think this is entirely possible and I think many have resigned to this, as 2007 style floods are looking more unlikely day by day with the weather trends. I was concerned we was gonna get a cool summer after February, but gradually I’ve seen the models and forecasters predict it to be very warm. I appreciate not everyone likes this weather, so how does everyone else feel this summer will be? I think May June July and early August will be cracking for us warmies. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by reef
Topic title

[reef]

Changed topic title to be consistent with previous ones

[SunnyDazee]

3 minutes ago, reef said:

Changed topic title to be consistent with previous ones

Thank you mate!

[Azazel]

hopefully, similar to last year, but with more thunderstorms. We had one in April and that was it last year.

[Snow Dayz]

7 minutes ago, Azazel said:

hopefully, similar to last year, but with more thunderstorms. We had one in April and that was it last year.

Yep spot on! We had some great storms the end of May but that was it!! Loved the hot weather though lets hope its the same

[Azazel]

2 minutes ago, Snow Dayz said:

Yep spot on! We had some great storms the end of May but that was it!! Loved the hot weather though lets hope its the same

It was the driest summer I can remember - I wouldn't mind if all our rainfall throughout the summer was convective in nature and came from regular plume breakdowns or storms. Dynamic rainfall can do one though.

[Ryan Mac Sweeney]

I was hoping for a hot summer also. There is a drought in Ireland

[Snow Dayz]

11 minutes ago, Azazel said:

It was the driest summer I can remember - I wouldn't mind if all our rainfall throughout the summer was convective in nature and came from regular plume breakdowns or storms. Dynamic rainfall can do one though.

I couldn't agree more! keep an eye on the radar today some good convection developing now!! We may get lucky!! lets hope its the start of things to come!

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Snow Dayz said:

Yep spot on! We had some great storms the end of May but that was it!! Loved the hot weather though lets hope its the same

I remember those late May Saturday night storms. One of the best for many years, alongside July 2017 and June 2016.

 

[Hirudine]

I hope it doesn't get quite as blisteringly hot as it did last summer- I like it warm but not furnace hot! And, of course, I'd love more epic thunderstorms plz

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Our chance of an extreme heat wave came last July, but it was quickly shunted away to the East with UK just clipping 35C when we could've got a first 40C had we got more of those big uppers.  We've had so many mid-thirties maximums since 2003. Up until 1990 temps like that were rare, then came 2003, and since then our maxes in summer are around 35C. Before 1990 maximums in the summer were around 32C.   1993 I believe was the last summer that 30C was not achieved anywhere in June, Jul or Aug.  I have a feeling 2019 will follow 1993 as its been 26 years now.

 

1990   37.1C

2003   38.5 C

2006  36.5 C  

2013  34.1  C 

2015   36.7 C   

2016  34   C

2017   35  C 

2018   35  C

[Azazel]

I've not got a good feeling about this summer, contrary to what most of the long-range forecasters are predicting.

[summer blizzard]

21 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I remember those late May Saturday night storms. One of the best for many years, alongside July 2017 and June 2016.

 

I do recall the most impressive storm last year being on the Saturday of Eurovision (12th May) with 2017 being interesting for a proper thundery front moving up from the south west. 

Although other warm periods in 2004 and 2005 did produce good storms, actually my best storms here were in the cooler summers of 2007 and 2012 which were replete. 

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

I've not got a good feeling about this summer, contrary to what most of the long-range forecasters are predicting.

Seasonal models in my opinion are still generally poor so i place little stock in them. A broken clock is correct twice a day. 

I tend to agree with you though in that i see a summer more likely to be front loaded than anything else. Although i see some factors as more supportive than last year (PDO and QBO) the critical thing for me is that the warmest Nino anomolies are surfacing now but with much less sub-surface support, hence the tendency during the summer will be for less support from the tropics in terms of amplification. Indeed the current trade wind burst in the central/east Pacific is the strongest for at least six months and that will add pressure to enhance the mid-lattitude westerlies as we progress if we see the pattern repeat.

 

[matt111]

On 25/04/2019 at 11:54, Azazel said:

hopefully, similar to last year, but with more thunderstorms. We had one in April and that was it last year.

That would be the perfect summer for me. Maybe if I was being really IMBY I'd ask for an easterly flow to things to stop the onshore breeze cooling things down too much. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

25 minutes ago, matt111 said:

That would be the perfect summer for me. Maybe if I was being really IMBY I'd ask for an easterly flow to things to stop the onshore breeze cooling things down too much. 

Easterly flow rare though post Wimbledon, setup we currently have is more like August than late April

[Earthshine]

Here's my ideal summer :

June:

Generally a warm and quiet month.  Temperatures around 20-23°C in the south and 18-21°C in the north.  Cool nights for the start of the month and generally dry (with the exception of some rain in the far northwest).

July:

Everything kicks off with a region of low pressure around the south of the UK with some warm or very warm air entrenched in it.  Temperatures generally 24-30°C in the south and 20-26°C in the north.  However, the highlight of the month will be the thunderstorms.  Huge cells developing around France and then being dragged up on a very warm and humid south/south-easterly breeze.  Some flash flooding possible and everything appearing incredibly lush and green thanks to the rain (in stark contrast to last July).  Some very high temperatures (i.e. 35°C+) where we see a blowtorch-type Spanish plume.

August:

Hottest August on record with the first 20°C CET on record, ending a run of rather mediocre Augusts.  Generally hot and dry, with the first 40°C recorded in the UK in the first week of the month.  We will also see the highest night-time minimum temperature ever recorded, with a minimum of 25.4°C recorded in London.  Temperatures 25-34°C in the south and 20-28°C in the north.  After a very hot start, there is a thundery breakdown mid-month (but still remaining warm).  However high pressure is never far and a huge blocking high over central Europe re-establishes itself, pumping some incredibly hot air out of North Africa.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Earthshine

[damianslaw]

Not sure about this summer - need to see how things pan out over May. A May with lots of high pressure around could bode very well for the first half of the summer at least, but one interrupted by repeat trough action from the west might suggest a rather flip flop start at least.

We've had a notably quiet atlantic for over 12 months now, and anamalous warmth we are due a change - but not to say this will happen anytime soon, just saying the chances of a change are increasing now.

A nagging feeling once again August will disappoint.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure about this summer - need to see how things pan out over May. A May with lots of high pressure around could bode very well for the first half of the summer at least, but one interrupted by repeat trough action from the west might suggest a rather flip flop start at least.

We've had a notably quiet atlantic for over 12 months now, and anamalous warmth we are due a change - but not to say this will happen anytime soon, just saying the chances of a change are increasing now.

A nagging feeling once again August will disappoint.

Aye, normally August is dominated by Atlantic air and low pressure, not really a summer month for Scotland, but for south can be warmer than the easterlies of June

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, normally August is dominated by Atlantic air and low pressure, not really a summer month for Scotland, but for south can be warmer than the easterlies of June

Yes our summer is often May through until late July and in a good year extends just about into early august. Pity the school holidays start so late, move them forward a month I say, as they do in Scotland.

May and June tend to be much drier months than July and especially August, less chance of thunderstorms and sudden showery downpours, and also the dreaded SW dank gunk and frontal activity from off the atlantic. My favourite time of year is late May into early June, everything still fresh and growing, lots of promise for the summer ahead, sunshine levels often at their yearly maxim, light levels near yearly maxim. Easterlies in May and June bring excellent weather to the Lake District, as happened last year and are far more likely in early summer than high summer.

August marks the start of the wet season..

[damianslaw]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Yes our summer is often May through until late July and in a good year extends just about into early august. Pity the school holidays start so late, move them forward a month I say, as they do in Scotland.

May and June tend to be much drier months than July and especially August, less chance of thunderstorms and sudden showery downpours, and also the dreaded SW dank gunk and frontal activity from off the atlantic. My favourite time of year is late May into early June, everything still fresh and growing, lots of promise for the summer ahead, sunshine levels often at their yearly maxim, light levels near yearly maxim. Easterlies in May and June bring excellent weather to the Lake District, as happened last year and are far more likely in early summer than high summer.

August marks the start of the wet season.. and often plagued by horrid moist humid grey claggy air. Its my worst month weatherwise.

 

[Mountain Snow]

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

Our preferences are exactly the same! May/June is my favourite time of the year, all that fresh green growth, birds singing and lambs skipping in the fields. It's also the time when most plants and trees flower and there's that knowledge of potentially many more months of warm weather. Last May was possibly the best May I can remember. 

August on the other hand is the worst month, sometimes get nice days but it's usually either warm, damp and muggy, the air filled with midges or it's cool and wet with the first taste of autumn. 

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Mountain Snow said:

Our preferences are exactly the same! May/June is my favourite time of the year, all that fresh green growth, birds singing and lambs skipping in the fields. It's also the time when most plants and trees flower and there's that knowledge of potentially many more months of warm weather. Last May was possibly the best May I can remember. 

August on the other hand is the worst month, sometimes get nice days but it's usually either warm, damp and muggy, the air filled with midges or it's cool and wet with the first taste of autumn. 

Yes May and June by far my favourite months. We've had some excellent spells of weather in May and June in many years. Last year was superb in this respect. July can be good as well, but it doesn't quite have the same feeling as May and June and all the good promise ahead.. July tends to have a headiness about it though which May and June don't - a time to slumber..

August since 2006 has been very poor, we've had exceptions such as August 1995 which was unique and a wonderful summer month. I often want to fast forward August and head into September when the weather often picks up again..

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

We've had a notably quiet atlantic for over 12 months now, and anamalous warmth we are due a change - but not to say this will happen anytime soon, just saying the chances of a change are increasing now.

 

Forgive me please for being 'that person', but isn't this an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?

[Sunny76]

I hope we have another good summer. Today’s weather just reminds me how horrible a cool cloudy summer is.

[markyo]

Fingers crossed the Atlantic will provide so much needed rain this summer,there is no doubt we need it!