Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Chris.R]

 What’s the model the Netweather local storm forecast uses as it’s really going for it for tonight. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Chris.R

[LightningLover]

13 minutes ago, Supacell said:

NMM shows some big storms breaking out tomorrow afternoon across eastern England before pushing NE. If that comes off then Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire would get a clobbering.

Wow!!! The simulated echoes on those!

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Looks like London seems to be in the firing line for Monday night into Tuesday. BBC’s forecast has the precipitation sat further east than originally a few days ago and so does ECM. Think I may be in luck!

 

Hope it doesnt take another kick East and become a Kent Clipper into the N Sea.

[Zak M]

The storms tonight into Monday morning are definitely gonna miss me, although Monday night into Tuesday looks like it has a good potential for some serious thunderstorms where I am.

[Fiona Robertson]

BBC still has the initial thunderstorm warning from Friday for storms hitting Dumfries and Galloway and Lothian and Borders. It's at the top of their page. It's bannered on their weather page. Yet that warning was updated and removed Scotland from the warning area. When you check the warning on the Met Office site, Scotland is in the clear. However anyone going to the BBC weather page, seeing the link to the warning and clicking on it will get the warning affecting Scotland. Not a good look and may cause not only confusion, but cause people to ignore warningsin the future.

[tomp456]

55 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Indeed,the storms last Tuesday were just to my East,although a great lightning display,Eastbourne being the sweet spot.

So just to my West Tuesday? Worthing the sweet spot this time!

Please be correct. 

Pretty please. 

[Snowyowl9]

Rain is gathering in the west,nothing of note to see outside yet sheets of darker clouds.

 

[cheese]

19 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

BBC still has the initial thunderstorm warning from Friday for storms hitting Dumfries and Galloway and Lothian and Borders. It's at the top of their page. It's bannered on their weather page. Yet that warning was updated and removed Scotland from the warning area. When you check the warning on the Met Office site, Scotland is in the clear. However anyone going to the BBC weather page, seeing the link to the warning and clicking on it will get the warning affecting Scotland. Not a good look and may cause not only confusion, but cause people to ignore warningsin the future.

The Met Office have taken down their warnings for today which is slightly odd. Maybe they don’t think anything will happen until the early hours of Monday.

Edited June 23, 2019 by cheese

[Mike Poole]

As a fan of all things probabilistic, I'm interested from a storms perspective in the new AROME ensembles for the short range (up to T51) on Meteociel.  

As an example, and thinking about Monday into Tuesday, here's mean MUCAPE at T41, and the chart for perturbation 6:

I think this could be quite a useful addition to the armoury for forecasting storms, for getting a handle on the uncertainty, particularly as there is a tableaux format for key parameters too, here MUCAPE for near London:

Edited June 23, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Ben Sainsbury]

Right now evident that there is some mid-level instability around. Might see one or two thunderstorms form in the next couple of hours.

[Petorious]

Here in Northamptonshire, I would say it feels particularly humid and looks traditionally stormy what I mean by that is remembering in previous years how days have felt and gone before storms occurred in the evening and night. It could be nothing but the forecasts have yo yo'd a lot over the last few days of what the weather wants to do, IMO I think its possible for anything to happen this eve.

[Chris.R]

Met text forecast for NW England; I like it!

Heavy and possibly thundery rain overnight. Feeling muggy.

This Evening and Tonight:

Showery rain will move north across all parts this evening, becoming heavy and possibly thundery in places. The showery rain should clear away to the north by dawn, with most places becoming drier. A warm and muggy night for many. Minimum temperature 13 °C.

Monday:

Mostly dry start, before heavy and thundery rain spreads across all parts during the morning. Becoming brighter with heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out through the afternoon. Warm and humid. Maximum temperature 22 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Perhaps the odd thunderstorm on Tuesday, but becoming largely dry with increasing amounts of sunshine on Wednesday and Thursday. Very warm and humid by day, and staying warm overnight.

 

[TJS1998Tom]

Hazey skies today but looks promising for later 

[Allseasons-Si]

Some heavy echoes breaking out SW of Worcester now. 

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Some heavy echoes breaking out SW of Worcester now. 

Was about to say the same.

[ancientsolar]

2 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Was about to say the same.

me too, 
looks like the first threat of anything up the welsh/English borders. 

[Barbmac]

Rain's not far from here in Malvern now. It's very murky and humid.

[sparky1972]

lots of cloud here all day, quite a stiff breeze and feeling fairly fresh, certainly going to scupper any chance of storms here today/tonight, looks like a better chance tomorrow afternoon. 

[staplehurst]

3 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

lots of cloud here all day, quite a stiff breeze and feeling fairly fresh, certainly going to scupper any chance of storms here today/tonight, looks like a better chance tomorrow afternoon. 

that shouldn't make any difference tonight since they'll be elevated thunderstorms

Edited June 23, 2019 by staplehurst

[ChezWeather]

Just now, staplehurst said:

that shouldn't make any difference tonight since they'll be elevated thunderstorms

Yep, any current rainfall on the radar is associated with a warm front moving North I believe?

Main storm activity will be elevated and isn't forecast to get going until tonight.

[sparky1972]

2 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

that shouldn't make any difference tonight since they'll be elevated thunderstorms

cool, thank you for the info, fingers crossed we might get a storm or 2, but whoever gets a storm i cant wait to see some amazing pics/video

[Zak M]

BBC Weather has forecasted storms heading directly where I live Monday night and early Tuesday morning 

Edited June 23, 2019 by zmstorm

[Azazel]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

09Z UKV has moved things a touch further West for Monday night in to Tuesday.

Keep going.

[Mapantz]

12Z UKV shows the IoW/Portsmouth/Bognor to be in a reasonable place. Usual caveats apply, probably more so due to many changes already today.

[StormChaseUK]

Just came through heavy rain Chester 

Now near Shrewsbury,  bone dry