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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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5 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:

Can I just ask a question. I live near Aylesbury Bucks and according all the weather sites including Netweather we are due NO Thunder Storm here, however then I read other posts and we are?

Could anyone of you lovely people who know about weather enlighten me so I can prepare my boy who has a massive fear.

Thank you so much for any help. 

The problem is nobody can say with more than a vague degree of certainty that it won’t affect your area, but I would say to your boy that where you live is probably one of the more ideal places to be as any lightning/thunder you do get will probably be very distant.

It’s an interesting one actually because I nearly wrote ‘prefers’ (as in the lightning ‘would rather not’ or ‘choose not’ to do a certain thing).

I used to be petriified of storms, and my parents would try to anthropomorphise or personify the lightning and/or thunder. They obviously thought this would make it sound in some way nicer or friendlier, I guess - but in actual fact I think it was the discovery of the science behind the phenomenon that turned my fear into an addiction (same happened with beer but the other way around - “beer is your friend...” 😄)

Maybe getting him interested in the science behind why it’s unlikely he will see or hear anything from these storms will help his realise it’s an amazing thing, or at least that he has a friend in the Synoptics, which can give a warning as to the likelihood of a storm approaching?

The situation today is a rather messy one so I don’t think anyone can say for sure what will happen but if I was still scared of storms enough to travel away from them I’d consider Aylesbury tonight, as it could be a perfect place to watch distant lightning in the cloud-tops without being in any real danger of hearing any thunder or being near any potential ground strikes*

(*Disclaimer: bolts from the blue do happen but are extremely, extremely rare. If either of you even sees one you’ve probably also won the lottery 😉)

 

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1 minute ago, Swansonson69 said:

Has anyone see that crazy GFS run for next week. It has the 25°c Isotherm pushing through the UK next week. That would get temperatures up to 40°c+ if that came off. Just imagine the break down after temperatures like that. 

whos?

Anyway the only Map/radar i have seen that shows those strikes in france is Netweathers. 3 neat crosses.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

Has anyone see that crazy GFS run for next week. It has the 25°c Isotherm pushing through the UK next week. That would get temperatures up to 40°c+ if that came off. Just imagine the break down after temperatures like that. 

And imagine the size of the [redacted], lol

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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As far as storms goes it looks a dead duck nothing on the radar and the front doesn't look particularly strong.

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

As far as storms goes it looks a dead duck nothing on the radar and the front doesn't look particularly strong.

I dare you to say the b word at 6:15pm 🤣

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I dare you to say the b word at 6:15pm 🤣

It's bust there you go.

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2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

As far as storms goes it looks a dead duck nothing on the radar and the front doesn't look particularly strong.

Yup Met Office rainfall radar only has some storms clipping the SE later
image.thumb.png.6d16e5b0c8153264139140bfe8c44147.png

SLP is low and there is a cyclonic flow but it's all too far south and east. I only expect to see steady rain here in the early hours and for many others, nothing more.
 

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8 minutes ago, Dami said:

whos?

Anyway the only Map/radar i have seen that shows those strikes in france is Netweathers. 3 neat crosses.

The GFS Operational run. 

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup Met Office rainfall radar only has some storms clipping the SE later
image.thumb.png.6d16e5b0c8153264139140bfe8c44147.png

SLP is low and there is a cyclonic flow but it's all too far south and east. I only expect to see steady rain here in the early hours and for many others, nothing more.
 

I knew that it was too good to be true

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4 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

The GFS Operational run. 

ah.Didn't quite mean that. Hahahah :P

40c would melt us.

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15 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

Has anyone see that crazy GFS run for next week. It has the 25°c Isotherm pushing through the UK next week. That would get temperatures up to 40°c+ if that came off. Just imagine the break down after temperatures like that. 

Just looked at that, that is mental. Western Poland nearing 40 degrees!

looks like Low pressure will never be too far away if it gets hot in the uk so pretty severe thunderstorms could well happen in that scenario!

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Only a bust if i wake up tomorrow and no one has had any thunder. 

I have seen clear radars blow up in minutes.

patience grasshopper.  

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17 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The problem is nobody can say with more than a vague degree of certainty that it won’t affect your area, but I would say to your boy that where you live is probably one of the more ideal places to be as any lightning/thunder you do get will probably be very distant.

It’s an interesting one actually because I nearly wrote ‘prefers’ (as in the lightning ‘would rather not’ or ‘choose not’ to do a certain thing).

I used to be petriified of storms, and my parents would try to anthropomorphise or personify the lightning and/or thunder. They obviously thought this would make it sound in some way nicer or friendlier, I guess - but in actual fact I think it was the discovery of the science behind the phenomenon that turned my fear into an addiction (same happened with beer but the other way around - “beer is your friend...” 😄)

Maybe getting him interested in the science behind why it’s unlikely he will see or hear anything from these storms will help his realise it’s an amazing thing, or at least that he has a friend in the Synoptics, which can give a warning as to the likelihood of a storm approaching?

The situation today is a rather messy one so I don’t think anyone can say for sure what will happen but if I was still scared of storms enough to travel away from them I’d consider Aylesbury tonight, as it could be a perfect place to watch distant lightning in the cloud-tops without being in any real danger of hearing any thunder or being near any potential ground strikes*

(*Disclaimer: bolts from the blue do happen but are extremely, extremely rare. If either of you even sees one you’ve probably also won the lottery 😉)

 

Echo that entirely @Flash bang flash bang etc - I used to be terrified as a child but then (initially) I watched a storm happening and became mesmerised. The more I then read into it the more interested (addicted) I became 👍

Just left the office and the humidity is definitely on the climb, albeit far from what it may become like in a few short hours.

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Some rapid convection taking place SW of Caen according to Sat24.

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Awaiting the 15Z UKV to update..

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13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup Met Office rainfall radar only has some storms clipping the SE later
image.thumb.png.6d16e5b0c8153264139140bfe8c44147.png

SLP is low and there is a cyclonic flow but it's all too far south and east. I only expect to see steady rain here in the early hours and for many others, nothing more.
 

NetWx NMM not in agreement with MetO model at all...which will win out??

2DDFC83C-20D3-4704-BD91-8CFC75529E34.png

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3 minutes ago, Dami said:

Only a bust if i wake up tomorrow and no one has had any thunder. 

I have seen clear radars blow up in minutes.

patience grasshopper.  

I'm pretty sure end of May 2 years ago there was an unexpected storm which wasn't in the forecast that took people by surprise and suddenly blew up over parts of the South and Wales where there was 500 strikes a minute according to Real Time Lightning 

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1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

Lightning near Caen!!!!

There you go!

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I hope some of this cloud clears as it’ll make even distant storms almost impossible to observe! 

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Posted (edited)

WEATHER&METEOROLOGY

THUNDERY RAIN.

A phrase used in weather forecasts when some quite sharp bursts of rain are expected from large areas of unstable medium cloud - with some 'rumbles' of thunder; the thunder not the most significant feature of the situation, and no well developed thunderstorms with associated hail, squally winds etc., are expected.

https://dictionary.babylon-software.com/thundery_rain/

Edited by Snowyowl9

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