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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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All the best everyone!

Not expecting anything at all down in South Devon, just been out for a wander and it is very cool, wet and grey. We may get a few scraps a little further east in Devon but anything would be a bonus 🙂

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14 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Some decent heat packing in behind that rain , france shooting up 

Screenshot_20190618-130145_Weather.jpg

Given the cloudy/drizzly skies, 20C in London is certainly not shabby! 

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Still struggling with these models. Estofex and GFS show virtually no CAPE and LI over the UK for the next 24 hours. Unless I'm blindsided.

Met Office and a few others here (sorry guys about missing names) are modelling Armageddon.

Is this a true division of opinion? Or are we simply importing what's brewing in France?

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last week's rain was a real pain as I discovered a significant split in the lead on my roof causing water ingress all over my new bathroom ceiling.

But the roofer came yesterday, stripped all the lead out and replaced with new and assures me I am now watertight so can look forward to a bit of rain now without worrying about leaky roof!


 

 

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Just now, StormLoser said:

Still struggling with these models. Estofex and GFS show virtually no CAPE and LI over the UK for the next 24 hours. Unless I'm blindsided.

Met Office and a few others here (sorry guys about missing names) are modelling Armageddon.

Is this a true division of opinion? Or are we simply importing what's brewing in France?

Are you looking at just surface CAPE and LI, or MUCAPE as well?

There are so many factors when it comes to forecasting storms. Check out this site - it has been quite useful for me! http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/  

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Just now, StormLoser said:

Still struggling with these models. Estofex and GFS show virtually no CAPE and LI over the UK for the next 24 hours. Unless I'm blindsided.

Met Office and a few others here (sorry guys about missing names) are modelling Armageddon.

Is this a true division of opinion? Or are we simply importing what's brewing in France?

That's not true. The MetO and other third party sites are highlighting the risk, which could have serious impacts.

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2 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Are you looking at just surface CAPE and LI, or MUCAPE as well?

There are so many factors when it comes to forecasting storms. Check out this site - it has been quite useful for me! http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/  

Hmm the site I'm using has not really got enough detail. Thanks Chris K - I'll check out yours. Appreciate it!

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Looks like I'm right in the bullseye for the best storms tonight, normally when that's forecast they goes east and west if me so lets see.

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Currently having a moderate shower here with a real feeling of calm before the storm...

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Some like light rain here as Met0 changed me too for the rest of the day..I am in a risk zone but that is thundery rather than thunderstorm.

Seen so many different charts and diagrams, some saying i may get a storm some saying unlikely.

Phone beeped. Thought was a Met0 upgrade but nah.

I gotta buy bubs a yellow dress for friday \o/

Edited by Dami

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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Is this rain highlighted here part of tonight's storms? 

_20190618_135957.JPG

I'd image the storms tonight will be much later on behind this. 

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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Is this rain highlighted here part of tonight's storms? 

_20190618_135957.JPG

8%! Charge your phone!!! lol

 

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2 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

8%! Charge your phone!!! lol

 

I had a feeling someone would point that out 😂

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It' going to be a long wait for all of us on both sides of the channel tonight. I've got a CAPE value of 2336 for tonight on Méteociel - hmm - we shall see what happens. Right now there are three lawnmowers, one in each neighbour's garden and one in mine going at full pelt in 30c - Jean-Philippe for one always knows when to get the mowing done before a storm...

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23 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Is this rain highlighted here part of tonight's storms? 

_20190618_135957.JPG

No tonights storms will form in situ at an elevated mid/higher level.  You won't see tonights storm on the radar until the 10pm-1am period

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10 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

No tonights storms will form in situ at an elevated mid/higher level.  You won't see tonights storm on the radar until the 10pm-1am period

So it's more a set your alarm job tonight for the early hours, rather than stay up and watch the radar all night (I need my beauty sleep 😂)

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If I was in Kent, especially near the coast, I would personally be expecting something before dark.

I'll hazard a guess at 9pm-ish.

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2 minutes ago, snow raven said:

So it's more a set your alarm job tonight for the early hours, rather than stay up and watch the radar all night (I need my beauty sleep 😂)

I think there will be scattered storms showing up earlier but around Channel islands/into the north of France.   Maybe below IOW.

It's quite warm muggy outside now and I'm further west.. So definitely a lot of energy out there - looks promising

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Latest 18/06 09Z UKV update looks promising, even for parts of Dorset, circa 11pm.

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Just now, Mapantz said:

Latest 18/06 09Z UKV update looks promising, even for parts of Dorset, circa 11pm.

I'm child free tonight and have tonight off so hoping to get a good light show from either the clifftops or the top of the New Forest!

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