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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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28 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Don't move to Hampshire haha we don't get anything either - you're best off moving to Lincolnshire or East Anglia.

I would go with Lincolnshire, I have a clear view across the fens from east Peterborough storms normally divert around me join up just to the north giving black sky's thunder lightning and torrential rain while I sit under a clear sky

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8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s not negative as you can see it’s a fair reflection of the situation and others playing catch-up now they’ve released the actual positioning is slightly different to model output. 

Rain likely for most of the day for many, a poor day all in all. Surface based storms highly unlikely now in the SE due to lack of insolation and only a slight chance of elevated storms this evening east of say Brighton is my take on this....

Chris, over on UKWW you seem a upbeat poster, on NW you seem the opposite, it's like an alter-ego kicks in....sorry, just an observation, nothing personal.............that aside, today, yes, cloud cover could be the major inhibiting factor for sb storms.....I'm not too fussed for my locale, anything would be a bonus, but it would be nice after this miserable excuse of early summer for at least part of the UK getting in on a bit of 'plume action'

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Delete 

Edited by tomp456

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Not calling this a bust for another 12 hours min. It’s hazy here but already warming up steadily to just under 20c. Yes I prefer the setups that have 3000 j/kg CAPE and a dewpoint you could swim in behind them, but given we have had weeks of absolutely zilch in terms of interesting weather I will take what I can! - Anecdotally I’ve chased far more juicy setups which have panned out to tepid drizzle and a bit of cloud to cloud. Today is bound to be unpredicatable!

Let’s see how things unfold rather than immediately writing it off and obsessively checking radar well before the main event eh..... 

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9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looks like a weak MCS type structure over north western France, bad news for us as cloud shield limits isolation and will mix out surrounding atmosphere. These situations are nearly always poorly modeled and appear to have been yet again. Maybe still an opportunity to get some heating into the extreme south, would say Brighton still would be the western edge of any real fun. 

Heating over the UK is not particularly important today as most thunderstorm activity will be elevated, and won't really 'kick off' until this evening / overnight. The chances of anything surface-based are slim at best, and have never really been signalled strongly thus far.

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Just to point out that there will be a second round of destabilising this evening and that is the one to watch.

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So this rain will not hamper any storm chances later? 

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I think Kent is the best bet for a late evening thunderstorm.  Elevated storms can be tricky to predict but steepest lapse rates in that direction.

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DSC_0614-min.thumb.JPG.b866fb2976bfe964e3d3a27647571d05.JPG

DSC_0615-min.thumb.JPG.2ab13ca0bcbec1efa5e6bdca0c757ccf.JPG

DSC_0616-min.thumb.JPG.50988572542ca03fea29933200be9299.JPG

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DSC_0618-min.thumb.JPG.ad431d012d80686cefce517a47b2bb30.JPG

 

 

 

Skies looking very threatening around 8.30 this morning.... 

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GFS 06Z looks less than convincing, the ICON 06Z looks to be too far west and has completely missed developments over Brest. Not helpful 

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9 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

So this rain will not hamper any storm chances later? 

No - the showery rain this morning has been well-signalled for a number of days to occur during Tuesday daytime, with any lightning (albeit isolated) most likely on the eastern flank closest to the best (weak) mid-level instability. A renewed pulse of instability will push across the English Channel this evening as the winds aloft begin to back more, and coupled with increased forcing from falling heights and the approaching shortwave, may lead to elevated thunderstorm development through the evening and night.

The main thing that could scupper the storm chances tonight is if the models don't have a good handle on the subtleties of the upper pattern, and things may not overlap favourably - but we can dissect that as and if necessary at a later stage...

Edited by staplehurst

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Big westward trend from the 06Z 👍

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2 minutes ago, John90 said:

Big westward trend from the 06Z 👍

Which model?

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Arome looks most promising, also its the finest mesh model so could have the best handle on things. Bournemouth on the western edge of activity from 18Z with a mature MCS moving into the IOW & Sussex around 21z. 

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4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Very much so @Alderc - seems my pessimism may be misplaced. WRF-NMM (which is a 2KM model) not updated since 18z 😫 which is my go to (together with Euro4) at short range. The Euro4 is reasonably encouraging but doesn’t tell me where the instability will be.

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1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Don't move to Hampshire haha we don't get anything either - you're best off moving to Lincolnshire or East Anglia.

Don't move to East Anglia cos we get bugger all too!  Best move across the channel.  Around 10 years of this same old scenario now, a fundamental change has happened with the occasional exception to the rule of course.  So sad for storm lovers, especially when it's always hardcore storms just over the channel, always so close but so far.  Groundhog year again?

Edited by James1979

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5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Which model?

Sorry, the GFS just at a glance. By big shift I mean for us in the south east. Context matters. The most noticeable difference is that on the temperature chart. I'm willing to be corrected. 

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My van thermometer is saying 22° - but knock a couple off as it tends to overdo things - still about 18/19° I reckon.

Clouded over somewhat in the last hour - fingers crossed we get a few spells of sunshine this afternoon

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11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Arome looks most promising, also its the finest mesh model so could have the best handle on things. Bournemouth on the western edge of activity from 18Z with a mature MCS moving into the IOW & Sussex around 21z. 

I’m gonna counter that and say you’re a little too far west.

Brighton to Hastings for landfall approx 9pm

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Here's a sneaky screenshot from the UKV for first thing tomorrow morning. The latest (6z run) has intensified and perhaps slightly delayed it..

screenshot-www.netweather.tv-2019.06.18-11-26-40.png

Prior to that, both runs break more isolated storms out in the SE later in the day today, with the main bulk of thundery rain and embedded storms heading inland from the SW around the same time and slowly trundling NE, with the most active stuff in eastern and central areas. 

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4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m gonna counter that and say you’re a little too far west.

Brighton to Hastings for landfall approx 9pm

And there's me in Worthing stuck in the middle of Bournemouth and Brighton. Lol. 

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14 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Don't move to East Anglia cos we get bugger all too!  Best move across the channel.  Around 10 years of this same old scenario now, a fundamental change has happened with the occasional exception to the rule of course.  So sad for storm lovers, especially when it's always hardcore storms just over the channel, always so close but so far.  Groundhog year again?

Could always try Somerset. I'm a little too close to the Severn Estuary but just inland often benefits from SW-NE convergence zones in rPm airmasses in the warmer half of the year, which hit me directly when there's more of a SSW-NNE element. We get affected by at least half of the number of plumes. Equally, slack easterlies bring homegrown storms to the area.

There are of course plenty of occasions when we miss out but then again each situation is unique.

 

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1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

And there's me in Worthing stuck in the middle of Bournemouth and Brighton. Lol. 

That's calm, you'll see some nice distant lightning.

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