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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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I want to see a thunderstorm to come my in Warminster in Wiltshire to day

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I’m keeping my expectations low for NW Kent - notwithstanding Nick F’s gorgeous forecast, models this morning for me, including WRF-NMM, Euro4, NetWx NMM and UKMO keep the extent of instability/convective rain quite limited to Kent/Sussex. I consider myself to be on the western most extent of the plume (based on WRF-NMM MUCAPE model), which while in itself can be a good thing (max destabilisation between plume and drier air), it also often happens that if storms organise then it is the eastern extent of storms that often become most electrically activity with the northern and western extents mostly rain with occasional electrics.

Lets see how it plays out - am certainly not ruling out a Benelux shift.

 

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2 minutes ago, A.J said:

Morning Andy, long time no speak......after a throughly miserable start to summer, it's nice to be able to get into a 'elevated plume storm' mindset again'

it deffo a wierd one this year ...apart from the pick rain last week .. this summer is a non starter so far .. lets see if we can get some elevated lights shows with clear light of sight over the clouds ..im wanting red sprites this year 🙂

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1 minute ago, Harry said:

I’m keeping my expectations low for NW Kent - notwithstanding Nick F’s gorgeous forecast, models this morning for me, including WRF-NMM, Euro4, NetWx NMM and UKMO keep the extent of instability/convective rain quite limited to Kent/Sussex. I consider myself to be on the western most extent of the plume (based on WRF-NMM MUCAPE model), which while in itself can be a good thing (max destabilisation between plume and drier air), it also often happens that if storms organise then it is the eastern extent of storms that often become most electrically activity with the northern and western extents mostly rain with occasional electrics.

Lets see how it plays out - am certainly not ruling out a Benelux shift.

 

aye, a MCS with an  easterly shift bodes ill generally speaking with sferics normally limited to its eastern flank, northern and western flanks normally suffer from too saturated atmos profiles.....that aside, it's just nice to able to chat about the potential of plume generated storms !

here at the mo, overcast skies with quite a thick Cirrus/Ac veil, hoping for clearer skies later on for a possible light show

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Will South West England get a thunderstorm to day and this place in the and west in the yellow warning for thunderstorms 

Bath and North East Somerset

Bournemouth

Dorset

Gloucestershire

Poole

Somerset

South Gloucestershire

Swindon

Wiltshire

 

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Not a good start for here. The first batch of rain has definitely shifted further East compared to what was being modelled on last night's runs.

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not a good start for here. The first batch of rain has definitely shifted further East compared to what was being modelled on last night's runs.

But  this places in South and West England in a yellow warning for thunderstorms 

Bath and North East Somerset

Bournemouth

Dorset

Gloucestershire

Poole

Somerset

South Gloucestershire

Swindon

Wiltshire

 

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14 minutes ago, A.J said:

aye, a MCS with an  easterly shift bodes ill generally speaking with sferics normally limited to its eastern flank, northern and western flanks normally suffer from too saturated atmos profiles.....that aside, it's just nice to able to chat about the potential of plume generated storms !

here at the mo, overcast skies with quite a thick Cirrus/Ac veil, hoping for clearer skies later on for a possible light show

Agreed - I’ve had one thunder day so far I think in 2019 so I’m gagging a bit like many others lol

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3 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

Will South West England get a thunderstorm to day and this place in the and west in the yellow warning for thunderstorms 

Bath and North East Somerset

Bournemouth

Dorset

Gloucestershire

Poole

Somerset

South Gloucestershire

Swindon

Wiltshire

 

Most models and forecasts suggest the highest risk for thunderstorm activity will be reserved towards the SE corner of England. Personally I think parts of the SW and West Country will be very lucky to see anything other than rainfall, but glancing thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. It would be best to watch the radars and lightning detectors now really.

The Met office warning areas often cover a broader area to encompass this overall risk (likelihood and impact), but it doesn't mean everywhere in that warning area will see severe weather.

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3 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

But  this places in South and West England in a yellow warning for thunderstorms 

Bath and North East Somerset

Bournemouth

Dorset

Gloucestershire

Poole

Somerset

South Gloucestershire

Swindon

Wiltshire

 

The yellow warning is only based on information from one particular agency based on data that has since changed.

Yellow warnings don’t mean it’s going to happen - but keep an eye out for a very small chance of an unexpected storm in your area.

Good luck with the storms today Tom 👍

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😞 I hate the south and west because the south and east get thunderstorms all in the summer and that is why want to move down to Hampshire so I get the thu from the cost. 

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Just now, tomdewey said:

😞 I hate the south and west because the south and east get thunderstorms all in the summer and that is why want to move down to Hampshire so I get the thu from the cost. 

Don't move to Hampshire haha we don't get anything either - you're best off moving to Lincolnshire or East Anglia.

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Such a predicament, my first potential long distance chase today for myself. As many have said the risk seems to have shunted eastwards; I might target in and around the Brighton area seems to be a good spot whether it's a direct hit or from distance.

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4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Such a predicament, my first potential long distance chase today for myself. As many have said the risk seems to have shunted eastwards; I might target in and around the Brighton area seems to be a good spot whether it's a direct hit or from distance.

I may be chasing in the South Downs area just outside Brighton 

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5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Such a predicament, my first potential long distance chase today for myself. As many have said the risk seems to have shunted eastwards; I might target in and around the Brighton area seems to be a good spot whether it's a direct hit or from distance.

I’m *stuck* in East Sussex today with work, literally the center of the moderate/high risk zone on most charts I’ve seen. Brighton area and east of that towards central Kent seems to be the sweet spot so I think you’ll do well - provided something happens later 🙂

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6 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

I may be chasing in the South Downs area just outside Brighton 

I don't know the area well whatsoever so I'm heading there and just seeing what works out haha.

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1 hour ago, A.J said:

Do you ever post anything positive?....or is it some kind of insane reverse psychology?....lol

some elevated convection breaking out over Devon, South Somerset & Dorset, worth keeping an eye on

 

It’s not negative as you can see it’s a fair reflection of the situation and others playing catch-up now they’ve released the actual positioning is slightly different to model output. 

Rain likely for most of the day for many, a poor day all in all. Surface based storms highly unlikely now in the SE due to lack of insolation and only a slight chance of elevated storms this evening east of say Brighton is my take on this....

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22 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Don't move to Hampshire haha we don't get anything either - you're best off moving to Lincolnshire or East Anglia.

Wouldn't bother with Norfolk either 🤣

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7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I don't know the area well whatsoever so I'm heading there and just seeing what works out haha.

From Bristol or reading?!

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2 minutes ago, TomW said:

From Bristol or reading?!

From Bristol haha

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Looks like a weak MCS type structure over north western France, bad news for us as cloud shield limits isolation and will mix out surrounding atmosphere. These situations are nearly always poorly modeled and appear to have been yet again. Maybe still an opportunity to get some heating into the extreme south, would say Brighton still would be the western edge of any real fun. 

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

From Bristol haha

Long drive but if it’s worth it I’m considering doing the same I’ll wait till later before making decisions! 😄 

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2 minutes ago, TomW said:

Long drive but if it’s worth it I’m considering doing the same I’ll wait till later before making decisions! 😄 

True, I was waiting until if ConvectiveWeather were putting out a Moderate or not, and they have so I'm sold!

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