Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Swansonson69]

This is too my West right now. Looking dark. A possible distant rumble has been heard as well. 

Edit: it looks more impressive in person. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Swansonson69

[Another Kent clipper]

@Swansonson69

I would not be kicking that out of bed!

[ChezWeather]

Couple of heavy showers moved through here, no T+L but some nice cloudscapes 

[Harry]

Liking the look of the latest models - they seem to be slowing the clearance of the plume on Wednesday. Still too early, but at this stage it seems to be going in the right direction

Edited June 14, 2019 by Harry

[Zak M]

According to Ventusky, up to 2,200j/kg CAPE is likely on Wednesday afternoon 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 Jun 2019

ISSUED 20:40 UTC Fri 14 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Similar to Friday, an upper low will cover much of the British Isles on Saturday, centred to the west of Ireland. An occlusion will straddle W Scotland / Wales / SW England at the beginning of this forecast period, but weakening as it drifts farther east through the day as forcing aloft overruns. The residual low-level moisture (dewpoints 9-11C) will then be subject to surface heating, yielding a few hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, early dynamic rain will transition to a much more convective look by the afternoon, with scattered showers along the old frontal boundary, but also potentially in areas ahead of and behind the boundary. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible almost anywhere, but primarily central/eastern England - though even here, any lightning is not expected to be significant enough to warrant a SLGT.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-15

[Swansonson69]

53 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

According to Ventusky, up to 2,200j/kg CAPE is likely on Wednesday afternoon 

I saw that. It's looking very good on Wednesday day. Hopefully it gets upgraded as we get closer to the day. 

[ChezWeather]

 

[Swansonson69]

3 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

 

That might me what was in my picture because it was intensifying as it passed. It have a lowering but I couldn't tell if it was rotating.  

[oliverek7]

Those storm charts are exciting me a lot but I know it may get turned upside down!

windy.com

Edited June 14, 2019 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Sparkiee storm]

Another one for Wednesday's potential, low resolution so I doubt it will be this widespread, but certainly could get a mini plume type situation with some storms, not getting hopes up just yet though, gonna see what the models are showing Sunday Night/Monday, if they are still showing this or similar, then it will be time to start getting excited .

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 hours ago, ChezWeather said:

 

I noticed the right movement and comma shape to this heavy shower throughout, but was very surprised at how low the cloudtops were when I looked NW.

June 2012 saw the Coventry/Sleaford supercell storm take a very similar trajectory, and even 30 miles South of it, the cloudtop was so high that it looked like a stones throw away!

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Looks like Wednesday might hold some potential!

[Swansonson69]

Wednesday is looking juicy. 

[Mapantz]

Kent Clipper alert!

[Thunder and Lightning]

13 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

Wednesday is looking juicy. 

I hope I will actually get some of that juice where I live (unlike most of the time)

[Another Kent clipper]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Kent Clipper alert!

Yes?

[Swansonson69]

Better not be a Kent clipper. I can't just race down there even though I'd love to. 

Hopefully a east England clipper

Edited June 15, 2019 by Swansonson69

[Harry]

Still a bit too early for me to start getting excited. Based on the latest models I think we are looking at more than a Kent clipper however 

Edited June 15, 2019 by Harry

[Thunder and Lightning]

heavy showers now developing near front! Hope to get some minor action

[Arnie Pie]

Heavy rain from a line of strong cells moving to the NE of Brum atm

[Thunder and Lightning]

system moving into Wells looks interesting

[Zak M]

Lightning activity now, happening north west of Swindon.

Edit: The strike has somehow been removed, although it's literally bang on in the center of the heavy precipitation?

Another edit: lightningmaps.org says there has been four more strikes in that area? 

Edited June 15, 2019 by zmstorm

[The PIT]

No lightning but the remains of the front look interesting. I expect to die by the time it reaches sunny Sheffield and then to reform when it passes.  The sun came out earlier here so it decided then to rain.

[MrNooo]

Yes, can confirm a couple of flashes/bangs from a heavy shower that is passing through. Only heard 2 bangs but may have missed any distant ones.