Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Mapantz]

That area of rain across the Northeast is just dynamic rainfall. There's little to no convective parameters modelled.

[Swansonson69]

Met office not even issuing an amber for east Midlands either. Too busy giving South Scotland the amber warning. 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 13 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 14 Jun 2019

ISSUED 19:46 UTC Wed 12 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough persists over northwest Europe on Thursday, the main parent upper low drifting north over the North Sea before translocating to western Scotland by Friday morning. At the surface an occluded front will pivot westwards across Scotland, but eastwards across England and Wales.

... EAST ANGLIA ...

Ahead of the frontal rain associated with the aforementioned occluded front, there may be a window of opportunity for some diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 10-12C), potentially yielding up to 500 J/kg CAPE. Consequently, a few scattered showers would be possible, capable of producing some sporadic lightning. Shear is a little weak and forecast profiles rather saturated, which may limit the lightning potential somewhat. This is dependent on sufficient cloud breaks in the morning hours, which is uncertain depending on how widespread / far east the frontal rain over the Midlands may be. For now have refrained from introducing a SLGT until confidence on these aspects improves.

... ENGLAND / SE WALES ...

Despite extensive cloud, weak diurnal heating will likely be sufficient for some shallow convective development near the occluded front, aided by the marked wind veer along the boundary - particularly during the afternoon hours over SE Wales / W Country / Midlands / Yorkshire. Some linear segments may develop with time, capable of producing some heavy bursts of rain - but overall convective depth will likely be too shallow for much (if any) lightning.

There may also be a few low-topped heavy showers in the post-frontal environment over northern England during Thursday afternoon.

... W IRELAND / IRISH SEA / NORTHERN ISLES ...

Main risk for the remaining areas will be during Thursday night where an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out associated with scattered showers - though most areas will remain void of lightning.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-13

[Sparkiee storm]

This rain is a lot further south than expected and a lot heavier than expected in the east, certainly going to cause some problems over the next day or 2 as the rivers rise. 

[Swansonson69]

17 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

This rain is a lot further south than expected and a lot heavier than expected in the east, certainly going to cause some problems over the next day or 2 as the rivers rise. 

They're already rising. 

[matty40s]

1 minute ago, Swansonson69 said:

They're already rising. 

Severn Trent, Soar, amongst others will be in severe flood by tommorow, quite a few roads already closed in the East Midlands....Trent is rising as fast as I've seen it since 2012

[Swansonson69]

3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Severn Trent, Soar, amongst others will be in severe flood by tommorow, quite a few roads already closed in the East Midlands....Trent is rising as fast as I've seen it since 2012

Yup, River Idle (which runs behind my house) is rising pretty fast. My road has gone completely dead since the rain picked up. It's torrential now. Yet still no amber warning from met office. I'm very surprised about that. 

[Mapantz]

Just a polite notice; this thread is for discussing convective weather & storms. There's regional threads to talk about rain and flooding and there's also this thread. Cheers! 

[Swansonson69]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just a polite notice; this thread is for discussing convective weather & storms. There's regional threads to talk about rain and flooding and there's also this thread. Cheers! 

Note taken.

[Azazel]

Not my photo, but taken on the Isle of Wight yesterday.

 

 

[Supacell]

4 hours ago, Azazel said:

Not my photo, but taken on the Isle of Wight yesterday.

It's very feint but it looks like that is actually on the ground. If not, it is still a very impressive funnel cloud.

[Swansonson69]

7 hours ago, Azazel said:

Not my photo, but taken on the Isle of Wight yesterday.

 

 

That's amazing. I think that's a Tornado and not a funnel. It does look like dust and stuff is being kicked up on the ground and like Supercell said, you faintly see the funnel cloud really close to the ground. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by Swansonson69

[Atmogenic]

I have to say that I don't enjoy all this cool and wet weather we're having, but you have to admit it's giving us some amazing cloudscapes. Such as these wonderful cumulus clouds I took going to college, it's not amazing as I was on the bus and they were close to behind me so I couldn't get a proper good image in the morning.

 

[matt111]

2 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

I have to say that I don't enjoy all this cool and wet weather we're having, but you have to admit it's giving us some amazing cloudscapes. Such as these wonderful cumulus clouds I took going to college, it's not amazing as I was on the bus and they were close to behind me so I couldn't get a proper good image in the morning.

 

Yes certainly interesting skies at times.  Here’s a few of them I’ve seen. 

[oliverek7]

Anyone seen this massive thundery low possibly pushing up across the south next Wednesday early morning?

[Harry]

Have indeed @Oliver Wyndham-lewis - was a bit of debate on here a few days ago about next week’s potential.

Some warmer and eventually more humid air is forecast to advert ahead of an approaching low from the SW Tuesday into Wednesday. BBC showing this on their latest week ahead forecasts, as is my iPhone. Overnight lows Tuesday night showing 16C so definitely signs of something plume-like. 

However...as it is only Thursday I’d take the models with a pinch of salt at this stage. If it’s still showing this Monday I’d be inclined to get more excited. Nice to see, certainly wouldn’t deny that.

 

 

[Zak M]

27 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Anyone seen this massive thundery low possibly pushing up across the south next Wednesday early morning?

Was gonna say something similar to this too. Looks like our first big storms of year (hopefully)

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

29 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Anyone seen this massive thundery low possibly pushing up across the south next Wednesday early morning?

I have been watching this for a few days now

[oliverek7]

30 minutes ago, Harry said:

Have indeed @Oliver Wyndham-lewis - was a bit of debate on here a few days ago about next week’s potential.

Some warmer and eventually more humid air is forecast to advert ahead of an approaching low from the SW Tuesday into Wednesday. BBC showing this on their latest week ahead forecasts, as is my iPhone. Overnight lows Tuesday night showing 16C so definitely signs of something plume-like. 

However...as it is only Thursday I’d take the models with a pinch of salt at this stage. If it’s still showing this Monday I’d be inclined to get more excited. Nice to see, certainly wouldn’t deny that.

 

 

Yep, I’d love to see some proper storms this year. Have only heard one or two claps of thunder all year so far, just loads of rain. Last year at the end of may we had some absolutely nuts storms! I hope that is what will happen on Wednesday

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 14 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 15 Jun 2019

ISSUED 20:15 UTC Thu 13 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Showery rain will affect parts of England and Wales on Friday morning, associated with an occlusion straddling the area. As a shortwave and associated PVA overruns the frontal boundary, it will tend to weaken allowing increasing amounts of insolation to occur, coinciding with peak heating. Residual low-level moisture associated with the old frontal boundary will provide the main focus for scattered showers to develop, though somewhat limited in height by a marked dry intrusion above 650mb. This, combined with marginal instability, suggests lightning activity is rather unlikely. Forecast profiles exhibit strong unidirectional shear as a jet streak moves across the area during the afternoon, though much of the strong flow will be above the cloud tops.

Elsewhere, the environment over Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, with greater proximity to the upper low to the northwest of the British Isles, will have steeper mid-level lapse rates due to cooler air aloft. With potential for deeper convection, lightning is more probable with any showers that develop here - though still unlikely to be significant enough to warrant an upgrade to SLGT. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-14

[Swansonson69]

3 hours ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Anyone seen this massive thundery low possibly pushing up across the south next Wednesday early morning?

Yup been watching since it first popped up. Hopefully my fourth storm of the year will be the big one.

Edit: looks like they going for storms on the wednesday for my area if it was to come off. Gonna check CAPE charts. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by Swansonson69

[TJS1998Tom]

4 hours ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Anyone seen this massive thundery low possibly pushing up across the south next Wednesday early morning?

BBC Weather Week Ahead hinting a slight chance of Thundery rain moving in from the South heading North East for around that time. Guess we'll have to keep an eye on the Models to see if they pick up on the idea

Edited June 13, 2019 by TJS1998Tom

[BrickFielder]

 Modelling today shows very little convective potential above mid levels, so not much chance of storms today. What is interesting is  that the modelling might be a little late over the continent. Looking at the EUMETSAT real time images I can see a pronounced jetstreak with a exit region developing a surface low over Belgium and Holland.
 In theory this area moves over Denmark heading for Norway and Sweden, but considering the Satellite images it might move a little more out into the north sea. The raises the possibility of a little more cloud clearance over the UK. All forecast SkewT's show a marked warming above 700Hpa to 500Hpa which will CAP convection. If I take the Herstmonceux sounding from last night and raise the surface temperature to 16 Degrees you can get significant convection. That however will not be representative of the air mass later today as warming aloft and increasing cap are forecast. Here I would be looking at a short window of time on the southern boundary of the occluded front where low level convergence occurs.
  So realistically there are no thunderstorms today, but depending on how things develop I would not totally rule out a weak thunderstorm especially if cloud clears. Probability of a thunderstorm today is less than 5 percent, but keep watching.

[Arnie Pie]

 Not expecting much today.........but there are some pokey little cells popping up to the West of Brum travelling NE

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Arnie Pie

[oliverek7]

Still looking alright for next Wednesday at the moment

 

windy.com

Edited June 14, 2019 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis