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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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I had a small party a couple of days ago. A buffet, really. I got the neighbours around and we all celebrated the very first rumble of thunder heard here in Reigate this June. After that we put away the party stuff for next year.

Meanwhile, I see the Met Orofice is forecasting Biblical floods for SE and E England the next two or tree days. Just popping out to plant some cacti. Whilst the air is destabilising around us, I don't see the inundations they are promising. Rain, yes. Worth a yellow weather warning? Nope.

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4 hours ago, StormLoser said:

I had a small party a couple of days ago. A buffet, really. I got the neighbours around and we all celebrated the very first rumble of thunder heard here in Reigate this June. After that we put away the party stuff for next year.

Meanwhile, I see the Met Orofice is forecasting Biblical floods for SE and E England the next two or tree days. Just popping out to plant some cacti. Whilst the air is destabilising around us, I don't see the inundations they are promising. Rain, yes. Worth a yellow weather warning? Nope.

Errr 

19061112_0918.thumb.gif.c46495b5a5ec078588c047826c937210.gifaccprecip_20190609_12_042.thumb.jpg.7205b0563499dd868017d40b40e05e72.jpgaccprecip_20190609_18_042.thumb.jpg.62a2ce8c80ed8a2dac4f5254a2892c40.jpg1079375539_accprecip_20190610_00_036(1).thumb.jpg.3f1deb0f26f15f076c6e9b1c840f3f7e.jpg931295834_accprecip_20190610_00_036(2).thumb.jpg.b82eddd4f42e4c0e9b74daa91f836bb9.jpgaccprecip_20190610_00_036.thumb.jpg.1b39440eec52fbcdb7175509361c10bf.jpg

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Errr 

19061112_0918.thumb.gif.c46495b5a5ec078588c047826c937210.gifaccprecip_20190609_12_042.thumb.jpg.7205b0563499dd868017d40b40e05e72.jpgaccprecip_20190609_18_042.thumb.jpg.62a2ce8c80ed8a2dac4f5254a2892c40.jpg1079375539_accprecip_20190610_00_036(1).thumb.jpg.3f1deb0f26f15f076c6e9b1c840f3f7e.jpg931295834_accprecip_20190610_00_036(2).thumb.jpg.b82eddd4f42e4c0e9b74daa91f836bb9.jpgaccprecip_20190610_00_036.thumb.jpg.1b39440eec52fbcdb7175509361c10bf.jpg

*Insert trophy reaction here*

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Is this potential rotation in a shower out to sea, by looking at the radar?

iou.PNG

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Looking at the radar the GFS has underestimated the system significantly.

It is forecasting 2mm today and more or less now. Looking at the radar we’ll definitely get more and it will arrive after lunch.

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At home in Clacton totals are very low so far - maybe 6mm now.  At work in Colchester we're just about over 10mm.  Much of the worst of the rain is missing eastern parts of East Anglia where it's so desperately needed.  There are some clumps of precip coming out of France heading NW into the area but they won't get totals up to where they need to be.

Other areas will have the total opposite with vast amounts of rain, some of the models were showing this across the central south, now there's more of a focus on eastern England north of The Wash.

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Posted (edited)

Hah! Throwing forecast charts at me, eh? With my history of every storm in the UK detouring around me, I'm setting up the BBQ for the afternoon.  😉 

Estofex forecast shows the majority of the serious stuff off in Europe to the south and east of the UK across the Channel, with a little raised threat clipping East Anglia. I'll go with that (as I usually do). Meanwhile, sun's coming out here but not enough for much forcing.

The models (like fujita5 says) showed focus for the central south of the UK. The next batch out of France is already trending that way. 

Edited by StormLoser

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Hah! Throwing forecast charts at me, eh? With my history of every storm in the UK detouring around me, I'm setting up the BBQ for the afternoon.  😉 

Estofex forecast shows the majority of the serious stuff off in Europe to the south and east of the UK across the Channel, with a little raised threat clipping East Anglia. I'll go with that (as I usually do). Meanwhile, sun's coming out here but not enough for much forcing.

The models (like fujita5 says) showed focus for the central south of the UK. The next batch out of France is already trending that way. 

This isn't about storms though, this is about a large amount of precipitation, possibly convective in nature, in a relatively short space of time - which absolutely warrants a weather warning from the MetOffice. 

Edited by PerfectStorm

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13 hours ago, TheToastPeople said:

Lmao typical right? You didnt miss much. I saw the flash and heard the thunder, But pretty sure it was a Cloud to cloud strike

Morning toast. Must of been out like a light as i heard nothing. 😞

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Posted (edited)

Amber warning issued by the Met office for SE England between 1500 and Midnight for Heavy thundery downpours.

Continental imports or home grown?

 

Thoughts?

Edited by sunnijim

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Posted (edited)

OK, I admit it. With an Amber Warning out I'll forget the BBQ and start taking some interest (sorry - after years of yellow weather warnings I am incredibly cynical about them).

Looking at the warning zone I say the forming small low pressure (a low level core from the Netherlands area) off the east coast, drifts inland right through the warning area. 

So I'd go for part home grown (weak local instability) and part imported - pulling a lot of moisture in from the north and east of the low (from the sea) as it develops.

A bit of a crusty on-the-fly model for you...  🙂    (Apologies if I am wrong).

PS sorry about the edits - I have arthritis and my keyboard rebels against me...

 

Edited by StormLoser

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I suspect it'll be home-grown showers, but not much in the way of electrical activity is forecast for areas in the Amber warning. I keep mentioning a model I have access to.. looking at it today, I can see why the Met Office have issued the Amber warning. It is showing some very intense precip rates late afternoon in to the evening. If these intense rainfall rates do occur, then an inch of rain in 30 minutes is feasible.

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11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I suspect it'll be home-grown showers, but not much in the way of electrical activity is forecast for areas in the Amber warning. I keep mentioning a model I have access to.. looking at it today, I can see why the Met Office have issued the Amber warning. It is showing some very intense precip rates late afternoon in to the evening. If these intense rainfall rates do occur, then an inch of rain in 30 minutes is feasible.

Does your model tie in with EURO4 current predictions? 

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19061021_1000.thumb.gif.68d46f01ff4ab929a3035ed9c37b9876.gif

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18 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Does your model tie in with EURO4 current predictions? 

19061015_1000.thumb.gif.e344fe8140bbbb9e53eaa63a3e38c3f0.gif

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19061021_1000.thumb.gif.68d46f01ff4ab929a3035ed9c37b9876.gif

This is what I thought of last Friday, EURO4 nailed the intensity and distribution of the showers just like this other model did. Hopefully they're in line this time too.

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I cant really imagine seeing anything interesting today (especially as far as structure is concerned) as any convection I would've thought would be likely embedded. Just slate grey skies with maybe a rumble or two thrown in.

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It's quite interesting because particularly later this evening across the SE/East Anglia there is quite a decent overlap of ML CAPE, DLS and SRH. I wondering whether we might see something more organised for a time move its way in from the continent. 

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Watching the countryfile forecast last night he was very keen to point out the 'forcing' behind the wet week ahead?

A polar plunge meets an African plume.

For years I have cautioned folk that the more direct a path air masses take then the less 'modification goes on before they meet with the next air mass.

If the Beeb were correct then surely there is an awful big potential differences between these two air masses?

It's not quite rockies cold meeting G.O.M. warmth but each year we seem to crawl closer to seeing such a difference between the battling air masses?

To think we are ground zero for funnel cloud formation ( this latitude of europe + N. Italy?) makes me a tad jumpy if we do see this evolution push us into 'mid west' air mass potential differences!

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Looks like sunshine arriving for the far south east, the rain has now passed so let's see what convection can get going.

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19 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Watching the countryfile forecast last night he was very keen to point out the 'forcing' behind the wet week ahead?

A polar plunge meets an African plume.

For years I have cautioned folk that the more direct a path air masses take then the less 'modification goes on before they meet with the next air mass.

If the Beeb were correct then surely there is an awful big potential differences between these two air masses?

It's not quite rockies cold meeting G.O.M. warmth but each year we seem to crawl closer to seeing such a difference between the battling air masses?

To think we are ground zero for funnel cloud formation ( this latitude of europe + N. Italy?) makes me a tad jumpy if we do see this evolution push us into 'mid west' air mass potential differences!

Not sure we have the topography for that to happen here in the UK. It's not just about difference in air mass temperature. It's about having a very warm and moist air mass that is capped by dryer air aloft, building masses amount of CAPE which is unleashed when the cap is eroded by the strong upper winds. Like a shaken fizzy bottle and the lid comes off! We just don't get that special mix of conditions and nor are we likely to as it has more to do with geography than climate change. However the mechanism you describe could result in more flooding events.

Anyway I'm eroding the thread! I'm not convinced on any electrics today however large rainfall amounts over a local area are a real risk. On top of the deluge this morning is why we have an Amber alert. 

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Posted (edited)

Distant thunder heard here.

1691468441_Annotation2019-06-10131937.thumb.jpg.e3b20f40930e8c819be57fb4047d7496.jpg

Edited by Mapantz
missed a 'd'

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Does your model tie in with EURO4 current predictions? 

Very similar, but shows higher intensities around North West Kent into London and Surrey.

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Light Strikes showing of the southern coast around Poole    Not a bad start 

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