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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 08 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 09 Jun 2019

ISSUED 18:59 UTC Fri 07 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

An area of low pressure will slowly move northeastwards away from eastern England during Saturday. 

SLGT:

A large area of showery rain will continue to wrap around the low across northern and eastern Britain. Nearer the centre of the low during the 0900-1500 period, some steeper lapse rates, combined with orographic forcing could generate a few heavy, thundery showers. As the low centre moves away, height rises combined with lessening lapse rates will likely reduce the lightning risk. 

LOW: 

Elsewhere in the proximity of the low, some pockets of weak instability combined with surface convergence and low level shear may help to generate scattered showers. Profiles remain very moist and given limited deep layer shear and lapse rates, showers are unlikely to produce much, if any lightning. 

It is worth noting that due to the low cloud base heights, surface convergence and low level shear a few funnels are possible early in the updraft phases of the showers. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-08

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Several hours of very heavy rain today from late morning into afternoon. Currently though this is parked to the south west of us, but it's looking increasingly ragged, so dunno if we'll get much from it. 

20190607_201011.jpg

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A nice little convergance zone is setting itself over our area atm......the cells to the SE look like arriving around dusk....and with a bit of diurnal heating.....we still may be in with a chance of some late fun in Brum

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After the brief downpour which turned out to be the birth of what grew to become a fairly potent thunderstorm to the northwest of here, a pretty tame affair here with light-moderate rain from the showers.

One cluster of them has stalled and pivoted overhead this evening due to the LP core moving east along the Channel, so at least they're putting down useful amounts; another 5 mm has been observed since the downpour.

Still got the wrap-around of the frontal boundary to come through early tomorrow morning. Models have been upgrading the rain rates on that so I could well be into the 20s mm by the time this is all done (currently on 17.4 mm as of 20:20). Might only be around 5 mm short of the totals ARPEGE had me down for - a good result for an even with a large convective contribution.

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21 minutes ago, Singularity said:

After the brief downpour which turned out to be the birth of what grew to become a fairly potent thunderstorm to the northwest of here, a pretty tame affair here with light-moderate rain from the showers.

Yep, it was this one, I think.

IMG_20190607_164431866.thumb.jpg.22ac271b19ce0d95e08ec7a1c01fa938.jpg

We've had a decent amount of rain here, but nothing flashy.

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23 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Was expecting thunderstorms to skim past the welsh coast so set myself in Penarth....turns out I was wrong and where I’m originally from (Cardiff) got hit by an intense thunderstorm, however I had great viewing of the structure of the storm + had view of the thunderstorms over the B.Channel. Just got home and hail is still on the floor, I didn’t expect the size of them! Photo of lightning is of the storm over Cardiff, others facing the B.Channel 

AA7BEC6A-DC29-4B87-9D2A-EED90DCD4DA7.jpeg

AA7BEC6A-DC29-4B87-9D2A-EED90DCD4DA7.jpeg

726832EB-2ED2-4E28-A850-EC2B99F98BB7.png

113C4738-DBDF-40B3-8DA5-E30C9A374371.jpeg

2F91E907-7E16-4ADB-ACFE-A02A6E7C2BF2.jpeg

Had some amazing lighting and clouds here in cardiffIMG_20190607_193102.thumb.jpg.c95d30b5b9cc7b2e798501f518128bf0.jpgIMG_20190607_193102.thumb.jpg.c95d30b5b9cc7b2e798501f518128bf0.jpg

IMG_20190607_185343.jpg

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I guess that's it now for thunderstorms today then.

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21 minutes ago, TomW said:

Had a little chase to the line that developed north of thornbury and managed to bag some thunder and lightning! 

CB64DACB-E468-45BD-99AE-A2510FDD84B5.thumb.jpeg.aae74e39b8c197a0aab6e5cb48fa96f0.jpeg

D5F473F7-FE64-4D15-8436-11AD3EBB82AB.thumb.jpeg.143d5b13ea9a06fe53c727ee6b2e7a53.jpeg

A4FF5258-37D8-4440-85B5-FC7147CD5D7F.thumb.jpeg.2eec88069ce485e54eead333eef85d17.jpeg

Nice! I didn't see any of that, recognize the road also its that along the Latteridge road ? Quality pics 🙂

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It's awesome to see everyone's pics from today, very great captures. 

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Interesting skies near Daventry, someone Nw of this could well get some serious winds .

20190607_213506.jpg

20190607_213914.jpg

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I don’t know if this is of any interest but this is the view to the south. 

 

Clear skies currently above.

FEA8AE27-9E50-4651-9ECB-46E7198B43FF.jpeg

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Interesting skies near Daventry, someone Nw of this could well get some serious winds .

20190607_213506.jpg

20190607_213914.jpg

@matty40s that looks alarmingly like a small and tight mesocyclone in that second photo!! Nice pics 👍

Edited by Harry

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I don’t know if this is of any interest but this is the view to the south. 

 

Clear skies currently above.

FEA8AE27-9E50-4651-9ECB-46E7198B43FF.jpeg

Got the same sky looking south from leicester!!just realised your from leicester aswell😂!!looks exactly how i seen it aswell!!

Edited by shaky

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Is the band of precipitation east of Peterborough, which is currently intensifying, of any interest?

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37 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

Congrats to you and all those who got those storms, impressive structure and very dark as well. 

thank you! So happy to finally have a storm - don't think I've had one like that since early 2018! 

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

@matty40s that looks alarmingly like a small and tight mesocyclone in that second photo!! Nice pics 👍

There was lots of rotation and a lowering wall cloud, luckily, a fellow stormchaser agreed with me amongst a table full of disparate boaters and non-weather nonnterestedfolk.

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1 minute ago, Liam Ellis said:

thank you! So happy to finally have a storm - don't think I've had one like that since early 2018! 

No problem. Better then what I've seen this year so far. We had 2 decent storms this year with a lot of thunder but little lightening. Also had a thundery shower. Our last great storm was 27th July last year. Those explosive storms that had about 2000 CAPE feeding them. If memory serves me right, one closed to me produced a tornado about 40 minutes away. I remember seeing a picture of it in the old 2018 convective thread. Unfortunately I couldn't see it in person due to being on the wrong side of the rain. Turned it dark enough to put the street lights on though. Me and dad was gonna chase but we didn't have money for diesel. 

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12 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Short video of lightning I captured in Portishead on a short chase this evening.

Nice video dude! Really great capture of the monstrous clouds and flashes!

In fact, there’s been a lot of fabulous pictures and videos from the likes of @TomW, @Liam Ellis, etc, on here over the last day or two! 

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Posted (edited)

Early warnings getting issued for next week 1/2

12:00 Mon 10 to 23:59 Tue 11

There is a chance that heavy prolonged rainfall could lead to local flooding and disruption to transport.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings
  • Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

There is a chance that heavy prolonged rainfall could lead to local flooding later on Monday and Tuesday. Whilst some places could miss the worst of the rain, there is a chance that 20-30 mm could occur quite widely, with locally up to 60 mm. Where areas of heavy rainfall become focused, much of this could possibly occur in less than 6 hours.. Across southern parts of the warning area, the rain should ease on Tuesday.

East Midlands

  • Derby
  • Derbyshire
  • Leicester
  • Leicestershire
  • Lincolnshire
  • Northamptonshire
  • Nottingham
  • Nottinghamshire
  • Rutland

East of England

  • Bedford
  • Cambridgeshire
  • Central Bedfordshire
  • Essex
  • Hertfordshire
  • Luton
  • Norfolk
  • Peterborough
  • Southend-on-Sea
  • Suffolk
  • Thurrock

London & South East England

  • Buckinghamshire
  • Greater London
  • Kent
  • Medway
  • Milton Keynes
  • Surrey

Yorkshire & Humber

  • North East Lincolnshire
  • North Lincolnshire
  • South Yorkshire

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-10

Edited by Summer Sun

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2/2

00:00 Wed 12 to 12:00 Thu 13

There is a chance that heavy prolonged rain could lead to localised flooding and disruption to transport.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings
  • Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

There is a chance that periods of heavy rain may lead to localised flooding. Whilst some places may miss the worst of the rain, 20 mm could fall quite widely, with locally up to 60 mm. The heavy rain may also be accompanied by strong to gale force northeasterly winds.

East Midlands

  • Derby
  • Derbyshire
  • Leicestershire
  • Lincolnshire
  • Nottingham
  • Nottinghamshire

North East England

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

Yorkshire & Humber

  • East Riding of Yorkshire
  • Kingston upon Hull
  • North East Lincolnshire
  • North Lincolnshire
  • North Yorkshire
  • South Yorkshire
  • West Yorkshire
  • York

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-12&id=ac65e97f-0bfb-4af5-8cdc-5c67ae1f352c

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