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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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Looking like it could be a decent day. Sun has been out for a couple of hours here, and temps already nearing 20c. All eyes on that band pushing N/NW approaching London area. 

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  Looks like the convective cap is a little strong to the south east, so little action possible there during the daytime. Comparing the Nottingham sounding SkewT from midnight last night and the forecast SkewT's show that temperatures of about 18 to 19 degrees will start surface based convection in theory so we might be relying on some heat island effects over large cities. EUMET Satellite images suggest weak mid level vorticity which would coincide with some drier air suggested on some SkewT's in the mid levels. Low level veering of winds is restricted to the cold front which is behind the convection and to an area to the north east where onshore winds may interact with an storms. Cloud tops look quite high from forecast SkewT's although the Nottingham sounding adjusted for daylight would limit heights a little. High level cloud could just limit temperatures where no surface based convection takes place. Key areas would be places like Leeds and York although lapse rates and cloud cover could prevent any storms at all.

sound-WestMidlands-12.png

2019042400.03354.skewt.parc.gif

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MetO yellow warning out for Thunderstorms covering a similar region to the convectiveweather forecast 

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The sun has just started to blaze through in East Wales/West Midlands .    I expected cloud cover today hampering things, but this looks quite promising.

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Looks like I may be placed well for this afternoon. All forecasts seem to agree on the best places being Midlands north into NW England, NE Wales and Yorkshire/Lincolnshire before activity wanes a little by evening as the storms push into the far north of England and S Scotland.

Tomorrow could offer some opportunities also, and more widespread than today.

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Nice to see some excitement building on these pages after what seems like a long storm free period. Will be monitoring activity across Midlands/N England with interest.

Was notably more humid this morning across my neck of the woods, all trundling northwards. Alas is now cloudy and miserable. We were always towards the bottom end of low risk anyway so won’t even pretend to be disappointed.

My garden is crying for some of the wet stuff which could come tonight, otherwise better prospects tomorrow/Friday for some decent rainfall and potentially some sparks.

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41 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

The sun has just started to blaze through in East Wales/West Midlands .    I expected cloud cover today hampering things, but this looks quite promising.

Yes Cloud starting to thin  and the sun showing his face   looking quite promising  

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes Cloud starting to thin  and the sun showing his face   looking quite promising  

Sounds like there’s enough forcing regardless of solar input - so maybe this means the storms could be more severe than already forecast?

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Looking good for me here today and dare I say tomorrow also. Always love a SE flow.

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Sounds like there’s enough forcing regardless of solar input - so maybe this means the storms could be more severe than already forecast?

 

Possibly   Temps here though are still on the lowish side   hopefully will see more of a rise as the cloud thins  15.8c at the moment  with Dp at 11.3 

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Feels very ready to go bang here in Macclesfield. Warm sunshine through a milky sky, and a South West-ish breeze. In fact you would be forgiven for thinking its the start of a day of severe storms in America. Time will tell later, will share if anything happens aroundh

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I'm slap-band in the middle of today's forecast potential and ESTOFEX also showing the same risk areas under 50% risk of lightning activity. Interesting to note the MWIS forecast 

Quote

"A risk of hail, and intermittently snow on highest summits as temperatures at times dip below freezing (mostly Scottish high tops)."

 

 

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46 minutes ago, mikeofmacc said:

Feels very ready to go bang here in Macclesfield. Warm sunshine through a milky sky, and a South West-ish breeze. In fact you would be forgiven for thinking its the start of a day of severe storms in America. Time will tell later, will share if anything happens aroundh

SW winds? you meant to say SE really didn't you?

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1 minute ago, Crashlanding said:

SW winds? you meant to say SE really didn't you?

That's the one!

 

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Just now, mikeofmacc said:

That's the one!

 

See i knew what you meant!!!  

i am in Delamere at the moment and its a nice 18c with the sun popping out baking the ground when it can!  hopefully some 4k gopro action later!

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Where is the actual Cold Front currently, I'm confused looking at the radar?

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Posted (edited)

1st  of the ppn is due through our area very shortly...not expecting anything... but hope that Brickfielders theory about the "heat island" takes effect

 

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Lightning map seems to be suggesting that we will get something today.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Robert Lewis said:

Lightning map seems to be suggesting that we will get something today.

I Think your too far south just seen BBC forecast they have showers / storms possibly over midlands and East Anglia but more especially over N England which seems to tie in with other forecast maps ie - Nick F , Convective Weather , Met Office

I'll go with Arnie Pie and am not expecting anything of note in my locale either apart from bits and pieces , places further north should do better

 

Edited by Gordon Webb
another spelling mistake
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