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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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6 hours ago, cheese said:

We’ve had literally one rumble of thunder this year. For the most part you haven’t missed out on anything.

Yeah but you could drive/train/cycle 10 miles in any direction and at least be near a moderate zone most weeks. We’re always in the middle marginal risk area at best. That’s the frustrating thing.

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Great post by Brickfielder once again. Very informative as always. 

It does look very touch and go, and will boil down to nowcasting more than likely. I hope we can see a more clear centre of the low, in order to maximise and utilise at least some diurnal heating. That will certainly help. 

Time to start keeping an eye on the current satellite over the next few hours. Hopefully we can start to get a picture of where activity could take place. 

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A model I have access to shows shower activity quite a lot different than the NetWx model for later on today. At 11:00Z it actually matches the radar almost perfectly, where as the NetWx is a bit out. It will be interesting to see what occurs.

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1 hour ago, BrickFielder said:

I have been looking at the Satellite images this morning to get some clarity on the weather effects today. What I have been struck by is the amount of spin on the wrapped occlusion at the center of the low at the moment. The way it spins almost makes me think of a tropical storm, except I know there is no warm core. It could give some pretty strong winds along the south coast and in to the channel which may not be fully on peoples radar. The caveat on this is that the low should start to fill and possibly split at lower levels.
In terms of convective activity then I am looking at a number of potential areas. Firstly the wrapped occlusion and here I am looking at the south east and East Anglia. Next I am looking at some post frontal surface trough denoted by some wind convergence in models and here I am looking at Midlands to East Anglia moving northwards. Thirdly I am looking at the potential (Not sure about this looking at the satellite imagery) new surface low over Wales which could develop its own wrapped occlusion. Fourthly a potential surface trough  between the Wales surface low and the main center of low pressure over the south east.
Which of these actually happen is a tricky call. I think we can say that Wales looks like getting some pretty heavy and consistent rain. The wrapped occlusion over the south east is likely to initiate new convection as a little sunshine will have been present and surface moisture will be available (London Maybe). Cloud Tops could be quite high but the front clears fairly late in the day for full daytime heating to take effect. Wind speed Shear is mixed, but I think the chances of significant severe thunderstorms is low.
The spin in the Satellite imagery still bothers me as the jet stream left exit does not really move on until late afternoon.

nmmuk3hrprecip15.png

nmmuk3hrprecip18.png

nmmuk3hrprecip21.png

nmmukwind18.png

sound-London-18.png

hgt300.png

Thoughts on Lincolnshire? Looks like those potential storms on the models are more towards the east 

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The sun is beginning to come out here.

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Well I’m surprised at this TAF from Liverpool Airport. Perhaps there is hope this far North after all. 

TAF EGGP 071104Z 0712/0812 05011KT 9999 SCT040
TEMPO 0712/0721 6000 RA SHRA
PROB30
TEMPO 0712/0721 04015G25KT 3500 +RA BKN014
BECMG 0721/0724 VRB02KT BKN012
TEMPO 0721/0803 5000 SHRA SCT005 BKN009
PROB30
TEMPO 0721/0803 2500 +TSRA BKN005 BKN015CB
BECMG 0803/0806 28011KT
TEMPO 0803/0812 6000 RA SHRA
TEMPO 0808/0812 28018G28KT BKN020, 07/06/2019, 11:04 UTC

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I see Metcheck have issued a thunderstorm advisory with a high risk (60%) for Kent.

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Front's cleared here on the western fringes of the New Forest (after delivering just over 10 mm of very useful rain), but the clear slot in the Channel is struggling to make itself known inland as more stratocumulus keeps forming. That needs to take a break if the required surface heating for surface based convection is to be achieved.

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Looks like the sun is trying to break through here. Definitely is brightening up here in Retford. 

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21 hours ago, Gary Anthony Pendlebury said:

Huge thunderstorm from the Liverpool area moved through here! Lots of lightning, rumbles of thunder, heavy rain and hail! Back to being sunny now

Can confirm was a tasty little storm yesterday afternoon.   I was lucky enough to be visiting family there the same afternoon

 

D8YqggFWsAMc9BO.jpg large.jpg

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Heavy showers now forming south of main rain. 

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The sun is shining here in west mendip ,although hazy .looking out towards the south there are some impressive clouds forming  , i think there will be some good storm activity later ,we are now approaching the longest day so thats on our side ,lets hope for some chimney shakers  ,where if you have soot ,it comes falling down chimney . Best of luck to all posters ,cheers legritter .

 

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Has anyone seen Estofex have added a mesoscale discussion for South East for tornado risk

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Sunshine achieved - in fact quite a bit of it, enough to lift temps into the 19s and evaporate most of the water from the terrain back into the atmosphere... ready to serve as fuel for cumulonimbus ☔🌩️.

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Had a good hour or so of sunshine here before the cloud came back hit long ago. Looks quite dark to the south. 

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The sun keeps trying to break through as it's raining, the front has almost past here now. I say about half an hour and it's gone. 

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Suddenly lots of towers going up. Feels more convective now

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1 minute ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Suddenly lots of towers going up. Feels more convective now

We still just have lots of cloud and rain from that front moving up : P

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Fairly humid here In Bexhill, as the frontal rain has traversed north. It was actually torrential for a good half hour, too.

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