Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[tomdewey]

I think saw a fulse lighting dot outside Wells on lighting map

[Swansonson69]

On 04/06/2019 at 18:31, Paul said:

 

I see some pretty potent sells on the radar. Most potent being South West. 

[tomdewey]

Why dose keep showing  fuse lightning Southampton and in the English channel on real lighting maps. 

[Swansonson69]

4 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

Why dose keep showing  fuse lightning Southampton and in the English channel on real lighting maps. 

I don't know, nothing showing on the netweather radar near Southampton or around it. Can you link the lightening map? 

[Zak M]

1 hour ago, tomdewey said:

I think saw a fulse lighting dot outside Wells on lighting map

They're all false strikes. The huge thunderstorms over France and Belgium are interfering with locations close by.

[Swansonson69]

1 minute ago, zmstorm said:

They're all false strikes. The huge thunderstorms over France and Belgium are interfering with locations close by.

Makes sense. I didn't know there was huge storms over there. 

[Bolt from the Blue]

2 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

They're all false strikes. The huge thunderstorms over France and Belgium are interfering with locations close by.

Just to rub it in... I think that’s the 3rd day in a row they’ve had a decent storm!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

There has been very hefty showers over Fivehead near Wells (my dad lives there). Could quite realistically be strikes there

[Swansonson69]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

There has been very hefty showers over Fivehead near Wells (my dad lives there). Could quite realistically be strikes there

True, its very eerily silent and still here in Retford (North east Midlands) 

[BrickFielder]

Today
 
The upper level trough still stretches across Wales, the central UK and Northern England.Where low level wind convergence takes place then some convection could initiate. Models don't exactly agree where that convergence is, but seem to point to parts of Wales and the Liverpool Manchester area (Perhaps parts of the Midlands). Cloud Tops and wind sheer are limited so we should not expect any severe storms today. Perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder although this is based on temperatures around 15C which I think is on the low side.

[Weather-history]

Cumulus development well underway.

 

[BrickFielder]

Tomorrow  (Friday)

Still trying to get a grip on what exactly is the scenario tomorrow even the Met Office guys trying to do the fax charts seem a little unsure. At lower level it appears that a second low pressure develops within the original low pressure system whilst at upper levels it remains a single low. According to the models at the moment there is a risk of thunderstorms after the main rain band moves through with key areas being the south coast through the midlands and up into the north of England in the evening. According to forecast SkewT's quite high cloud tops are possible although they may be limited by surface temperatures (i.e. breaks in the cloud are pretty essential).Untill I can get a real grip on the scenario I will not venture any further into analysis as it seems possible that convective developments might be further east than forecast at the moment.

[Chris.R]

Temp approaching 15°C here already.  

 Now just reached it. 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Chris.R

[Chris.R]

A nice TAF From Liverpool airport now. 

TAF AMD EGGP 061029Z 0610/0706 17009KT 9999 SCT030
TEMPO 0610/0619 7000 SHRA
PROB30
TEMPO 0610/0617 4000 +SHRAGS
PROB30
TEMPO 0612/0617 TSRA, 06/06/2019, 10:29 UTC

[Chris.R]

 It’s all kicking off to my East now. Had some moderate showers here with nice sunny intervals in between. 

[Swansonson69]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 It’s all kicking off to my East now. Had some moderate showers here with nice sunny intervals in between. 

For the first time since the storm season has begun there's no activity in the north east Midlands when there's a chance of something. Been a nice pleasant summery day. 

[Had Worse]

The washings just come off the line in the NW Midlands

[Chris.R]

 Amazing thunderstorm here!  Lovely close CGs and ICs. Torrential rain. Now passed and sun is back out. Beautiful transitions today. 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Chris.R

[Zak M]

Friday late afternoon looks really interesting for potential thunderstorms.

[Swansonson69]

Just now, zmstorm said:

Friday late afternoon looks really interesting for potential thunderstorms.

I concur. Could be our first proper storms of the season. 

[Gary Anthony Pendlebury]

Huge thunderstorm from the Liverpool area moved through here! Lots of lightning, rumbles of thunder, heavy rain and hail! Back to being sunny now

[Chris.R]

Think that’s it for today here. Wind has gone on-shore which is inhibiting things. Didn’t expect it to veer that much but I suppose that helped with the convergence zone before. 

 

Next opportunity seems to be Sunday here. Looks like the front won’t clear in time tomorrow for me this far north. 

[toggerob]

Eyes towards Stoke-on-Trent for me with a nice cell on radar and I can see the anvil to the SW from here. 

[davehsug]

8 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Eyes towards Stoke-on-Trent for me with a nice cell on radar and I can see the anvil to the SW from here. 

Yes, a nice little storm here, just east of overhead, but plenty of thunder, more than the lightning detector seems to be showing.

[Met.]

Moderate showers here but no T&L observed.