Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Swansonson69]

21 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Checking on the latest charts, Germany is too far east for tomorrow (Belgium/Netherlands best placed). Ideally the storms would be about 300 miles further west than currently forecast and then it would be a case of just a bit of driving. No ferries, flights, tunnels or swimming . But how often have we seen massive storms over the near continent where the UK ends up with nothing!

It's happened pretty often to be honest. Although I think they'll be slightly more West then forecasted. The coast of Kent and around those areas would be a good place to be if you're looking for a distant light show I guess with maybe it scraping the coast if you're lucky. 

[Chris.R]

Tomorrow storm risk is back for my location in a big way on the WRF 12Z. Showing 900 J/KG CAPE, -4 LI and 10 M/S shear. Nice. 

[Swansonson69]

11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Tomorrow storm risk is back for my location in a big way on the WRF 12Z. Showing 900 J/KG CAPE, -4 LI and 10 M/S shear. Nice. 

That's decent potential right there. No idea what's going on with my area. 

[ChezWeather]

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-04

Edited June 3, 2019 by ChezWeather

[Swansonson69]

Convective weather has me in perfect position for the line of heavier showers they are talking about. Hopefully a slight is introduced. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 hours ago, Supacell said:

Checking on the latest charts, Germany is too far east for tomorrow (Belgium/Netherlands best placed). Ideally the storms would be about 300 miles further west than currently forecast and then it would be a case of just a bit of driving. No ferries, flights, tunnels or swimming . But how often have we seen massive storms over the near continent where the UK ends up with nothing!

It’s a fine cut decision. There’ll be a few pounds at stake, but it usually is a safe bet as they mostly see the decent stuff, especially surface based activity, whereas over here, it’s usually transitioned back to elevated nature once it leaves the French coast.

If only we could know for certain at more than a week out, then I’d happily book annual leave and head over there! It’s difficult. But I would certainly be up for a storm chasing adventure over there at some point. 

[Azazel]

Quick look for today - chance of some stronger convection in red boxes - interesting to see if a discrete cell can fire off near Plymouth.

[TJS1998Tom]

Hopefully this breaks up. Looks like it'd trying to brighten  

[Chris.R]

Temp already 3°C above forecast. 

[BrickFielder]

It is a bit tricky to forecast convection today and even the Estofex forecaster is hedging his bets. What has me most concerned is the satellite imagery and cloud cover as it does not appear to be exactly conforming to modelling.
What we can see is that there is an upper level trough approaching from the west reducing temperatures at upper levels. Upper levels also do not appear to be as moist as modelling suggested yesterday which should tend towards more discreet developments rather than an MCS (Big stormy mess).
From low level wind modelling we can see areas where low level winds converge and veer. This is likely to be a focus for convective initiation. Forecast SkewT's show a marked warm nose at around 650hPa which begins to relax as the trough moves in. This should mean mid level cloudiness should begin to clear and allow temperatures to rise. Also shown is some marked wind and speed sheer in the lowest level of the atmosphere. This can mean any strong updraft could potentially be rolled and twisted upwards for a short lived tornado. Directional sheer through the mid and upper levels is not that great so super cell development is low risk (There might just be enough for a low topped one). Speed sheer in the upper levels is moderate which means storms can tilt a little making them more likely to be long lived.
Being realistic then updrafts may not be that strong, cloud cover is likely to limit convection, cloud tops are likely to be limited and the timing of the correct conditions for convective initiation may not match up.
Areas to watch according to the models are Wales with perhaps some embedded storms along the front, perhaps the south east for a continental clipper and the midlands moving north. I would probably identify  Oxford from mid day moving northwards through the east and west midlands mid afternoon and trundling on into Humberside and parts of the north later. Due to Satellite imagery concerns, my confidence in any storms is a bit low, but the conditions from modelling would suggest a possibility of a moderately severe storm through the midlands with perhaps a weak short lived tornado. I guess storm chasers might head towards somewhere like Leicester although there is every chance today would be a bust. Its still interesting to make guesses from the modelling and from here on in it is just a case of watching to see.

[StormLoser]

Sigh. Rain to the west of me, rain to the east of me. Forward into the valley of bone dryness I ride. What is it about Reigate in Surrey that 100% storm-proofs me?  My garden is wilting, my storm watching is like watching paint dry.

Even Brickfielder's Continental Clipper is going through Kent.        

Happy hunting folks. Hope some of us have a good day!

[Chris.R]

 16.2°C and the Sun is out strong. Seems promising to me for my area. 

[TJS1998Tom]

To my South

[Swansonson69]

6 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

To my South

Looks a bit like that over Redford. Very warm and humid as well. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Swansonson69

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Wow that clipper could be impressive when you consider there are warnings about the severity of the storms in NE france later today.

Here’s hoping for a clear sector later this evening over the channel - the light show would be fantastic

[Sparkiee storm]

Some of the skies/clouds around here today look eerily similar too the skies in the late morning/early afternoon before big storms in the US Plains.

[Chris.R]

WRF 06Z maintaining the storm risk for my area during the evening. CAPE up to 530 j/kg; LI -3; shear 15 M/S. Surface wind veering from NE to SSW; 850 MB wind ESE veering SSW. 

 It is still underestimating the temperature though. 

[Swansonson69]

23 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Some of the skies/clouds around here today look eerily similar too the skies in the late morning/early afternoon before big storms in the US Plains.

That's exactly what I was thinking as well. 

[TJS1998Tom]

Skies looking more like white sheets now. Fairly cool but calm. Had patchy blue skies earlier though rain radar showing patchy light rain nearby

[matty40s]

Torrential rain in Northampton area from nothing on radar 10 minutes ago!!!

[TJS1998Tom]

Very patchy atm

[Swansonson69]

3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Very patchy atm

You live close to me. 

[Josh Rubio]

Potential squall line being formed? Moving up into the East Midlands. 

[Arnie Pie]

Just looking at the build up around the Cotswolds and Oxford area....and bearing @Brickfielders ecxellent forecast and views

It could be an interesting afternoon here in the Midlands

Edited June 4, 2019 by Arnie Pie

[Sparkiee storm]

1 hour ago, Swansonson69 said:

That's exactly what I was thinking as well. 

Yep, also maybe getting some goods by the looks of the radar if it continues developing here in the Midlands