Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Atmogenic]

that is a lot of heavy rain...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

32 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Don't know why convection is starting to pick up just now. Big CB forming to my north.

ML CAPE is on the increase and lapse rates are steepening. It’s the timing of the colder air aloft coming over previous diurnal heating. Small changes/unusual occurrences can often herald big surprises. Wouldn’t rule out a few sparks overnight across the midlands and maybe E Anglia as this lot makes its way through. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[I remember Atlantic 252]

48 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

that is a lot of heavy rain...

unreal sky, looks like huge thunderstorm approaching

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 28 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 29 May 2019

ISSUED 18:26 UTC Mon 27 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

A slack pressure pattern will persist across Britain with low pressure situated across southern Scandinavia. Higher pressure will build from the southwest and into Ireland and southwestern Britain later. 

Cold air aloft and surface heating will help to generate 200-300 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. This is especially the case across the E Mids/E Anglia/SE Eng by mid-afternoon. Forecast profiles highlight some drier air above 500mb, and this could limit the depth of convection and thus limit lightning potential. 

Both low-level and deep-layer wind shear remains light, however with the colder air aloft and dry air in the mid-levels there is the potential for a few funnels or even a brief land-spout tornado as any stronger convection develops in the afternoon (again most likely across E Eng/E Anglia). 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-28

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 28 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 29 May 2019

ISSUED 18:26 UTC Mon 27 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

A slack pressure pattern will persist across Britain with low pressure situated across southern Scandinavia. Higher pressure will build from the southwest and into Ireland and southwestern Britain later. 

Cold air aloft and surface heating will help to generate 200-300 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. This is especially the case across the E Mids/E Anglia/SE Eng by mid-afternoon. Forecast profiles highlight some drier air above 500mb, and this could limit the depth of convection and thus limit lightning potential. 

Both low-level and deep-layer wind shear remains light, however with the colder air aloft and dry air in the mid-levels there is the potential for a few funnels or even a brief land-spout tornado as any stronger convection develops in the afternoon (again most likely across E Eng/E Anglia). 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-28

Had this small shower pass by earlier, with quite an impressive updraft! Thought it was going to drop a funnel. Clear rotation on it. 

[Zak M]

Heavy shower forming to my west. I can see it in the distance just behind a couple of trees and the development looks scary.

[Zak M]

CRAZY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING OUTSIDE MY HOUSE RIGHT NOW

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Seeing loads of lightning in the anvil top towards Huntingdon and Cambridge! Only a small percentage of strikes are showing on blitzortung. Crazy. 

[Zak M]

Can still see lightning and hear some thunder from western Cambridge. If you know my YouTube channel, be prepared. You don't know how many lightning strikes I've got on video.

[Robbie Garrett]

3 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

ML CAPE is on the increase and lapse rates are steepening. It’s the timing of the colder air aloft coming over previous diurnal heating. Small changes/unusual occurrences can often herald big surprises. Wouldn’t rule out a few sparks overnight across the midlands and maybe E Anglia as this lot makes its way through. 

The most amazing forecast award goes to yourself for May 2019

[Zak M]

3 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

ML CAPE is on the increase and lapse rates are steepening. It’s the timing of the colder air aloft coming over previous diurnal heating. Small changes/unusual occurrences can often herald big surprises. Wouldn’t rule out a few sparks overnight across the midlands and maybe E Anglia as this lot makes its way through. 

THANKS SO MUCH, YOU'RE RIGHT

[poseidon]

Finally a bit of lightning to look at, albeit north of here. Not a good year for storms in this area so far.

[James1979]

My first thunder of the year and a complete surprise at that, what a bonus storm that was for someone so storm starved and finally some much needed rain for the Neots dust bowl!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Check out the 18z GFS for some real storm porn charts. I sincerely hope they maintain the same output, but I always have my doubts at this far out. 

But as it stands, Sunday evening and overnight would be an absolute dream. Severe storms would almost certainly ensue most of England, especially the SE. A strong jet streak ramping up during the evening would easily give all nighters on that specific run, and Possible supercells, if not, huge multicellular/MCS type storms. June 24th 1994 chart matches very close to the 18z. 

Infact, it’s almost a carbon copy!! 

Edited May 27, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[James1979]

6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Check out the 18z GFS for some real storm porn charts. I sincerely hope they maintain the same output, but I always have my doubts at this far out. 

But as it stands, Sunday evening and overnight would be an absolute dream. Severe storms would almost certainly ensue most of England, especially the SE. A strong jet streak ramping up during the evening would easily give all nighters on that specific run, and Possible supercells, if not, huge multicellular/MCS type storms. June 24th 1994 chart matches very close to the 18z. 

24th June 1994 is still the most intense storm ive ever seen (back in my Essex days), nothing has come close to that incredible and scary beast since! Fingers crossed then!! Top marks on your forecast earlier, you've built my hopes up for Sunday now! 

[Another Kent clipper]

8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Check out the 18z GFS for some real storm porn charts. I sincerely hope they maintain the same output, but I always have my doubts at this far out. 

But as it stands, Sunday evening and overnight would be an absolute dream. Severe storms would almost certainly ensue most of England, especially the SE. A strong jet streak ramping up during the evening would easily give all nighters on that specific run, and Possible supercells, if not, huge multicellular/MCS type storms. June 24th 1994 chart matches very close to the 18z. 

And guess who's not working that Sunday and Monday?   This is all too perfect to be true, something has to give.  Maybe I'll be hospitalised by a French positive strike and miss it all

[poseidon]

9 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Check out the 18z GFS for some real storm porn charts. I sincerely hope they maintain the same output, but I always have my doubts at this far out. 

But as it stands, Sunday evening and overnight would be an absolute dream. Severe storms would almost certainly ensue most of England, especially the SE. A strong jet streak ramping up during the evening would easily give all nighters on that specific run, and Possible supercells, if not, huge multicellular/MCS type storms. June 24th 1994 chart matches very close to the 18z. 

Nice... we can but hope. Meteox lightning forecast showing most of the country getting a shot as the risk area sweeps west to east....

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Check out the 18z GFS for some real storm porn charts. I sincerely hope they maintain the same output, but I always have my doubts at this far out. 

But as it stands, Sunday evening and overnight would be an absolute dream. Severe storms would almost certainly ensue most of England, especially the SE. A strong jet streak ramping up during the evening would easily give all nighters on that specific run, and Possible supercells, if not, huge multicellular/MCS type storms. June 24th 1994 chart matches very close to the 18z. 

Infact, it’s almost a carbon copy!! 

1 minute ago, Another Kent clipper said:

And guess who's not working that Sunday and Monday?   This is all too perfect to be true, something has to give.  Maybe I'll be hospitalised by a French positive strike and miss it all

I am off next Mon/Tues,i hope this comes off.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, Another Kent clipper said:

And guess who's not working that Sunday and Monday?   This is all too perfect to be true, something has to give.  Maybe I'll be hospitalised by a French positive strike and miss it all

I hope it does. But I’ve seen potential like this go horribly wrong, even right down to the wire, so best to try and not get hopes up just yet! 

It does seem too good to be true that chart. Absolutely epic. 

[Another Kent clipper]

Even if it does evaporate (there's not much scope for it to get better so the only direction is the opposite) no-one can take the hope and anticipation away from me.  (Not my video by the way, i just remember a string of nasty thunderstorms in the mid-nineties)

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Another Kent clipper

[Allseasons-Si]

Just a couple more charts:-

temps and dew points

Edited May 27, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What a plumetastic run. Yes it’s FI, but wow, what an event this one would be 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

15 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Even if it does evaporate (there's not much scope for it to get better so the only direction is the opposite) no-one can take the hope and anticipation away from me.  (Not my video by the way, i just remember a string of nasty thunderstorms in the mid-nineties)

 

That’s exactly how I remember a few of the classic 90’s storms being. That one was truly remarkable though, and saw it listed in an archive of having an anvil of over 150 square miles! 

[Mapantz]

Unfortunately, not much in the way of support for the GFS. The ECM at 144 would probably result in a Kent clipper if the synoptics played out like that on Sunday. Strangely, the GEM op run supports the ECM.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Even if it does evaporate (there's not much scope for it to get better so the only direction is the opposite) no-one can take the hope and anticipation away from me.  (Not my video by the way, i just remember a string of nasty thunderstorms in the mid-nineties)

 

Oh how it gives me goosebumps watching that. It's how a storm should be. I can remember storms like this being a LOT more frequent when I was a kid in the 90s.