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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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45 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I'm feeling slightly different areas today - leaning more towards the East. Chance of something stronger around the Manchester area maybe. All in all, pretty low risk.

23.04.2019.png

I’d love for this to be accurate but there’s little support for this outcome imo. My dad recently moved to Somerset, if there was a stronger likelihood for storms I’d head over that way but the low risk we’re under tells me to stay put and expect very little to no action

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Fat lady already tuning up although she's not been invited to the party really.

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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Fat lady already tuning up although she's not been invited to the party really.

Oh does she play the fiddle now? Lol

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no sign of anything yet.. and a lot of cloud cover 

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11 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

no sign of anything yet.. and a lot of cloud cover 

Not sure if it will amount to much, but a line of precip seems to be developing just West of Oxford, stretching down to the S coast.

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I think we’re starting to see some convection going on now over Central -Southern England; radar showing a line of precipitation and satellite showing some height to the clouds over that region. Models show CAPE and theta-e starting to increase towards the SW and peaking around 8pm, so hopefully this band can use this instability to trigger off some thunderstorms 

9EB14FA8-7A65-4B90-A53A-517991CE49F2.png

264058B5-29E4-4FE9-BA45-1C673EC15A04.jpeg

9E4D070C-C61B-44A9-BA9B-89423665A9BA.png

8A289E09-FD4E-4CA5-B953-AE26086E9A9E.png

58032CF9-9EB3-4D18-B60E-E78A7A6A3110.png

5D45128F-403E-4B24-A9FA-1C9FB7887CA7.png

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Current TAFs for tomorrow sound very promising:

 

Manchester (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms and hail): 

231106Z  2312/2418 09009KT CAVOK PROB30 TEMPO 2318/2412 12015G25KT PROB30 2400/2410 8000 TEMPO 2413/2418 7000 SHRA BKN045 PROB30 TEMPO 2413/2418 3000 +SHRA TSGS BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2415/2418 15015G25KT=

 

Birmingham (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms):

231106Z  2312/2412 08012KT CAVOK TEMPO 2402/2408 9000 PROB30 2403/2408 BKN006 TEMPO 2408/2412 6000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

 

Cardiff (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms):

231106Z  2312/2412 07010KT CAVOK BECMG 2315/2318 VRB04KT PROB40 TEMPO 2320/2409 SHRA BKN045CB BECMG 2321/2324 07010KT TEMPO 2409/2412 6000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

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3 minutes ago, Convective said:

Current TAFs for tomorrow sound very promising:

 

Manchester (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms and hail): 

231106Z  2312/2418 09009KT CAVOK PROB30 TEMPO 2318/2412 12015G25KT PROB30 2400/2410 8000 TEMPO 2413/2418 7000 SHRA BKN045 PROB30 TEMPO 2413/2418 3000 +SHRA TSGS BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2415/2418 15015G25KT=

 

Birmingham (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms):

231106Z  2312/2412 08012KT CAVOK TEMPO 2402/2408 9000 PROB30 2403/2408 BKN006 TEMPO 2408/2412 6000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

 

Cardiff (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms):

231106Z  2312/2412 07010KT CAVOK BECMG 2315/2318 VRB04KT PROB40 TEMPO 2320/2409 SHRA BKN045CB BECMG 2321/2324 07010KT TEMPO 2409/2412 6000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

Yeah sounds promising. Gotta love the TotallyAccurateForcasts  ;)

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9 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

I think we’re starting to see some convection going on now over Central -Southern England; radar showing a line of precipitation and satellite showing some height to the clouds over that region. Models show CAPE and theta-e starting to increase towards the SW and peaking around 8pm, so hopefully this band can use this instability to trigger off some thunderstorms 

9EB14FA8-7A65-4B90-A53A-517991CE49F2.png

264058B5-29E4-4FE9-BA45-1C673EC15A04.jpeg

9E4D070C-C61B-44A9-BA9B-89423665A9BA.png

8A289E09-FD4E-4CA5-B953-AE26086E9A9E.png

58032CF9-9EB3-4D18-B60E-E78A7A6A3110.png

5D45128F-403E-4B24-A9FA-1C9FB7887CA7.png

Keep us updated 🙂  I'll be watching the radar to see what if anything comes of it! ,

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Things getting a lot more interesting now with this band. I expect the northern side to show a lot more activity in the next few hours given that it’s entering higher levels of CAPE 

D43300B7-1F47-47C4-AEC3-67D827FD1E14.png

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Western France is getting a little more exciting.

Need to start seeing some of this potential being forecast further east... I’m not letting the north and west have all the fun this year 😜

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A very imby post but what’s the potential looking like for the East Midlands tomorrow? 

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Posted (edited)

Liverpool TAF also. 

 PROB30 TEMPO 2415/2418 3000 +SHRA TSGS BKN014 BKN025CB

All only PROB30s though. 

Edited by Chris.R

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

A few models for tomorrow afternoon

image.thumb.png.4cf34e40a793b5141fd1721a401943ef.pngimage.thumb.png.43be1900dd9945a6eca674eb6c4760f8.png

image.png

A nice big blob right over Leeds. All fingers crossed.🤞 

LBA TAF: heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, small hail or snow pellets. Snow pellets?!

Edited by cheese

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18 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

This Shelf-Cloud was spotted on the Bordeaux storm a hour ago, hopefully we'll be seeing similar skies across the UK tomorrow.

59163423_2326100090784643_847342239423135744_n.thumb.jpg.5c782936ba97dcfcb1a328088f040086.jpg

Woahhh 😍😍

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This Cape model now and this Cape model at 3pm to day

ukcapeli (4).png

ukcapeli (3).png

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

This Cape model now and this Cape model at 3pm to day

ukcapeli (4).png

ukcapeli (3).png

Was hoping for something overnight, but it’s all looking like it fizzled out - next hope is Thursday into Friday and Friday afternoon

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 24 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 25 Apr 2019

ISSUED 20:26 UTC Tue 23 Apr 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Plume of relatively high ThetaW will advect northwards from France and across England and Wales during Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, as an upper low over the Atlantic west of Biscay extends a trough northwards towards Britain. The net result is increasing elevated instability by Wednesday morning as upper forcing arrives on the forward side of the aforementioned trough, aided further by potentially strong surface heating by midday and during the afternoon hours (dewpoints 12-14C). 

... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ...

At the start of the forecast period, showery outbreaks of rain will likely be affecting parts of Ireland, south Wales and S / SW England associated with the surface cold front. North of this front, elevated convection is expected to develop during the morning hours across the Midlands and East Anglia, which may become increasingly surface-based provided there are sufficient cloud breaks for surface heating. As a result, there is an increasing risk of scattered thunderstorms developing with time, particularly by the afternoon and early evening in a zone from the north/east Midlands northwestwards across northern England, north Wales and perhaps even the Isle of Man. 

An approaching jet streak from the SE will increase speed shear and favour some organisation of thunderstorms by late afternoon and early evening across N / NW England, which combined with up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE is likely to lead to fairly frequent lightning and hail up to 1.5cm in diameter from the most intense cells. Some localised surface water flooding may be possible, especially where storms occur over large urban areas. The areas at greatest risk of organised thunderstorms are the N + NW Midlands, NW England up to south Cumbria.

Lightning activity is expected to weaken by the time thunderstorm clusters approach the far north of England and southern Scotland as instability wanes.

... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ...

After a temporary lull in activity, the next shortwave will swing northwards from France during the evening and night hours. As a result, instability will increase across the English Channel and then into southern Britain, though not of the same magnitude as the activity across central Britain during Wednesday afternoon / evening.

Scattered showers are likely which may produce a few sporadic lightning strikes, though probably not frequent or widespread enough to warrant a SLGT. Decaying thunderstorms from northern France may pass close to SE England on Wednesday evening also.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-24

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looooooooool I was looking at the wrong chart yesterday hence why my map was so off. Got the right chart this morning! Think we could see something more significant in the red box, across to Lincs

 

 

24.04.2019.png

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Haven't been around a while, however back to storm season and possibly something quite juicy today. 

Already some early morning convection stretching from Portsmouth towards Brighton, according to AROME these will be the main focal for today as they head NNW. 

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Certainly looking potentially very unstable tomorrow with maybe cloud tops up to the tropopause

sounding.thumb.png.2b043d4a3fb39087c56885cdb13e8e5a.png

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