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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    45 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    I'm feeling slightly different areas today - leaning more towards the East. Chance of something stronger around the Manchester area maybe. All in all, pretty low risk.

    23.04.2019.png

    I’d love for this to be accurate but there’s little support for this outcome imo. My dad recently moved to Somerset, if there was a stronger likelihood for storms I’d head over that way but the low risk we’re under tells me to stay put and expect very little to no action

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    20190423-1.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Fat lady already tuning up although she's not been invited to the party really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    1 hour ago, The PIT said:

    Fat lady already tuning up although she's not been invited to the party really.

    Oh does she play the fiddle now? Lol

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    11 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

    no sign of anything yet.. and a lot of cloud cover 

    Not sure if it will amount to much, but a line of precip seems to be developing just West of Oxford, stretching down to the S coast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    I think we’re starting to see some convection going on now over Central -Southern England; radar showing a line of precipitation and satellite showing some height to the clouds over that region. Models show CAPE and theta-e starting to increase towards the SW and peaking around 8pm, so hopefully this band can use this instability to trigger off some thunderstorms 

    9EB14FA8-7A65-4B90-A53A-517991CE49F2.png

    264058B5-29E4-4FE9-BA45-1C673EC15A04.jpeg

    9E4D070C-C61B-44A9-BA9B-89423665A9BA.png

    8A289E09-FD4E-4CA5-B953-AE26086E9A9E.png

    58032CF9-9EB3-4D18-B60E-E78A7A6A3110.png

    5D45128F-403E-4B24-A9FA-1C9FB7887CA7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    Current TAFs for tomorrow sound very promising:

     

    Manchester (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms and hail): 

    231106Z  2312/2418 09009KT CAVOK PROB30 TEMPO 2318/2412 12015G25KT PROB30 2400/2410 8000 TEMPO 2413/2418 7000 SHRA BKN045 PROB30 TEMPO 2413/2418 3000 +SHRA TSGS BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2415/2418 15015G25KT=

     

    Birmingham (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms):

    231106Z  2312/2412 08012KT CAVOK TEMPO 2402/2408 9000 PROB30 2403/2408 BKN006 TEMPO 2408/2412 6000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

     

    Cardiff (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms):

    231106Z  2312/2412 07010KT CAVOK BECMG 2315/2318 VRB04KT PROB40 TEMPO 2320/2409 SHRA BKN045CB BECMG 2321/2324 07010KT TEMPO 2409/2412 6000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
    3 minutes ago, Convective said:

    Current TAFs for tomorrow sound very promising:

     

    Manchester (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms and hail): 

    231106Z  2312/2418 09009KT CAVOK PROB30 TEMPO 2318/2412 12015G25KT PROB30 2400/2410 8000 TEMPO 2413/2418 7000 SHRA BKN045 PROB30 TEMPO 2413/2418 3000 +SHRA TSGS BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2415/2418 15015G25KT=

     

    Birmingham (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms):

    231106Z  2312/2412 08012KT CAVOK TEMPO 2402/2408 9000 PROB30 2403/2408 BKN006 TEMPO 2408/2412 6000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

     

    Cardiff (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms):

    231106Z  2312/2412 07010KT CAVOK BECMG 2315/2318 VRB04KT PROB40 TEMPO 2320/2409 SHRA BKN045CB BECMG 2321/2324 07010KT TEMPO 2409/2412 6000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

    Yeah sounds promising. Gotta love the TotallyAccurateForcasts  ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
    9 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

    I think we’re starting to see some convection going on now over Central -Southern England; radar showing a line of precipitation and satellite showing some height to the clouds over that region. Models show CAPE and theta-e starting to increase towards the SW and peaking around 8pm, so hopefully this band can use this instability to trigger off some thunderstorms 

    9EB14FA8-7A65-4B90-A53A-517991CE49F2.png

    264058B5-29E4-4FE9-BA45-1C673EC15A04.jpeg

    9E4D070C-C61B-44A9-BA9B-89423665A9BA.png

    8A289E09-FD4E-4CA5-B953-AE26086E9A9E.png

    58032CF9-9EB3-4D18-B60E-E78A7A6A3110.png

    5D45128F-403E-4B24-A9FA-1C9FB7887CA7.png

    Keep us updated ?  I'll be watching the radar to see what if anything comes of it! ,

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Things getting a lot more interesting now with this band. I expect the northern side to show a lot more activity in the next few hours given that it’s entering higher levels of CAPE 

    D43300B7-1F47-47C4-AEC3-67D827FD1E14.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

    Western France is getting a little more exciting.

    Need to start seeing some of this potential being forecast further east... I’m not letting the north and west have all the fun this year ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Liverpool TAF also. 

     PROB30 TEMPO 2415/2418 3000 +SHRA TSGS BKN014 BKN025CB

    All only PROB30s though. 

    Edited by Chris.R
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    2 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

    A few models for tomorrow afternoon

    image.thumb.png.4cf34e40a793b5141fd1721a401943ef.pngimage.thumb.png.43be1900dd9945a6eca674eb6c4760f8.png

    image.png

    A nice big blob right over Leeds. All fingers crossed.? 

    LBA TAF: heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, small hail or snow pellets. Snow pellets?!

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    18 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

    This Shelf-Cloud was spotted on the Bordeaux storm a hour ago, hopefully we'll be seeing similar skies across the UK tomorrow.

    59163423_2326100090784643_847342239423135744_n.thumb.jpg.5c782936ba97dcfcb1a328088f040086.jpg

    Woahhh ??

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    Posted
  • Location: warminster Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: warminster Wiltshire

    This Cape model now and this Cape model at 3pm to day

    ukcapeli (4).png

    ukcapeli (3).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    7 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

    This Cape model now and this Cape model at 3pm to day

    ukcapeli (4).png

    ukcapeli (3).png

    Was hoping for something overnight, but it’s all looking like it fizzled out - next hope is Thursday into Friday and Friday afternoon

    Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    looooooooool I was looking at the wrong chart yesterday hence why my map was so off. Got the right chart this morning! Think we could see something more significant in the red box, across to Lincs

     

     

    24.04.2019.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    Haven't been around a while, however back to storm season and possibly something quite juicy today. 

    Already some early morning convection stretching from Portsmouth towards Brighton, according to AROME these will be the main focal for today as they head NNW. 

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