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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Absolutely nothing here since April 2018. Probably because I bought a new lens. Hoping to see something over the coming months!

Models look like they could be onto something at 180-220 hrs out. The 12z GFS would be an absolute storm fest with potential for supercells! But it’ll probably sadly change. You’ve got backed light S-SE winds, tonnes of CAPE and LI with a decent jet stream above with WSW winds, a marked change in wind speed and direction aloft, which is the ingredient to get rotation. A June 28th 2012 day repeated would be amazing, or the 28th July 2005. Days like them are normally at least a 1 in 10-15 year episode though. 

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Posted (edited)

I don't think I've seen one like this before..

viewimage.thumb.png.3b999d209f8988c759b686fdd03716a1.png

All academic of course.. 😆

More CAPE than Batman and Superman put together.

729976173_Annotation2019-05-25235207.thumb.jpg.2505152df0f2ee3f518f062df85ab7c0.jpg

Edited by Mapantz

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I know we have another thread concerning the lack of thunder days, but i haven't had a decent overhead thunderstorm now since July 2015. A few things skirted close by in 2016, and 2017 and 18 saw nothing more than a couple of thundery showers, something has to give at some point 

Its nice to see charts like this though, even if they are way out in fantasy island 

image.thumb.png.619752d047d4f469687bb1465a733959.png

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You're certainly not going to see storms with a great big Azores HP stretching over us. That's been the killer in recent years and it certainly was last year. Heights were just too predominant. What you want is a slack S'ly drift and approaching trough from the Atlantic. Failing that, a heat LP pushing up from the S will usually deliver.

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What a difference a year makes. This time last year we watching developments over France. My video and cheap plug for my YouTube channel 🙂

@Flash bang flash bang etc, that promise is providing I can get a pass from work. If so, the more the merrier ✈🌩. Will be last minute of course. Europe lacks the up to 8 day ahead storm forecasts that the USA get courtesy of NWS, sadly.

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23 minutes ago, Supacell said:

What a difference a year makes. This time last year we watching developments over France. My video and cheap plug for my YouTube channel 🙂

@Flash bang flash bang etc, that promise is providing I can get a pass from work. If so, the more the merrier ✈🌩. Will be last minute of course. Europe lacks the up to 8 day ahead storm forecasts that the USA get courtesy of NWS, sadly.

This video captures perfectly the frustrating nature of that storm system. Amazing watching it approach - frequent lightning - but I remember the rain was so intense around our area that night, and the lightning frequency seemed to drop significantly once the storm got close.

IIRC it never really seemed to go overhead, rather it formed an active band over East Sussex and travelled NW into London.

A fantastic video nonetheless, expecially enjoyed the start - fantastic watching the huge flashes approaching over the sea - but I remember being really disappointed with how that worked out for the central south, and the rain made any photography almost impossible. Sadly one of the only big events we got last year... here’s hoping this summer can redress the balance? 🤷‍♂️

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, ChezWeather said:

I know we have another thread concerning the lack of thunder days, but i haven't had a decent overhead thunderstorm now since July 2015. A few things skirted close by in 2016, and 2017 and 18 saw nothing more than a couple of thundery showers, something has to give at some point 

Its nice to see charts like this though, even if they are way out in fantasy island 

image.thumb.png.619752d047d4f469687bb1465a733959.png

Looks like next weekend will be a decent time for storm chasers in the UK then. They could be seeing their first proper storm outbreak this year.

Edited by zmstorm

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6 hours ago, zmstorm said:

Looks like next weekend will be a decent time for storm chasers in the UK then. They could be seeing their first proper storm outbreak this year.

And guess who’s working nights that week 🙃.

I’ll see what I can do if the potential is still there nearer the time. But my hours of chasing might be pretty limited and radius mileage reduced. We shall see. Thank god for other chasers on here and elsewhere that do get the sublime footage. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 27 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 28 May 2019

ISSUED 19:26 UTC Sun 26 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

An area of low pressure will move southwards through the North Sea with troughs extending into the British Isles bringing unstable conditions and widespread showers and a few thunderstorms.

A combination of cold air aloft,  surface convergence and 200-400 J/kg of CAPE will help to trigger widespread showers across the British Isles. Convergence boundaries near the coast of E/NE England will increase the risk of heavier showers, however the highest instability looks somewhat south of the convergence zone so the forecast remains isolated for lightning at this time. An upgrade to Slight will be considered for somewhere in eastern England on Monday morning.  

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-27

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More eye candy for early next week, not to be taken literally of course 

image.thumb.png.ee5fc79847380d09fa4e234d90f84232.pngimage.thumb.png.15ccaa54a3abd38cc4e431868b926f6a.pngimage.thumb.png.907207316992dfbd9a99613e5bd3a827.pngimage.thumb.png.32d7f5a871d62e84fc2b8abb319dc258.png

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This time last year we had the enourmous storm that lasted hours. One of the best we've had in many years.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Lauren said:

This time last year we had the enourmous storm that lasted hours. One of the best we've had in many years.

Are you talking about the MCS that came over the Uk from France on May 29th? if so I recorded a video of that

edit: oh nvm this was from 2017 so the storm you must be on about didn't hit my location sorry

Edited by Atmogenic

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Posted (edited)

Some decent thunderstorms over Ireland currently. Hope that those storms travel to the UK this evening.

Edited by zmstorm

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Some good radar imagery in north Wales heading for Cheshire in next hour. 

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Just had one rumble of thunder. 🌩️:oldgrin:

Nothing showing up as yet on the storm radar apart from heavy showers.

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It’s grumbling away quite nicely here at the moment. 🌩️:oldgood:

A5A3C3A3-A63C-4214-BAD1-94A285BD1D4E.png

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Beefy showers skirting the N Welsh coast, heading into the N and E midlands within the next few hours. CAPE set to build throughout the evening, and storm risk transitioning from Wales/Ireland to the East. 

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Posted (edited)

Yes looking at the radar there are some hefty showers moving East with some lightning already.

Screenshot_20190527-175940.thumb.jpg.f6b402bb8bc83be64f997a888e924697.jpg

Edited by Polar Maritime

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As per normal these will miss me but tomorrow has my interest as we're pretty close to a convergence line. Of course this may end up further west or further east or we just brew big showers for areas to the south of us. We shall see.

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Dark skies to my west, some intense precip on the radar, can it survive it's trip across the Peaks

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4 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Dark skies to my west, some intense precip on the radar, can it survive it's trip across the Peaks

Just arrived here very heavy rain currently and a marked drop in temp.

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Don't know why convection is starting to pick up just now. Big CB forming to my north.

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I can see the weak spot where Sheffield is going to go through.

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