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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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5 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

best thing about eastbourne is the road out of it lolol

much prefer Eastbourne over Brighton in the summer, much quieter and nicer

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1 minute ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

Is it possible that the main cluster giving the most lighting is surface based? 

As it looks to me the  band that is on a more northerly course, might me the main event,

it just looks more like what was modelled

As it looks like the storm that is going bonkers will end up clipping Kent.

So is it worth staying up for ? 🙂

 

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I’m guessing West Sussex is out of the firing line, and everything will be east and north of here?

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Very, very slowly lightning activity is edging into the channel now

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Just now, tomp456 said:

I’m guessing West Sussex is out of the firing line, and everything will be east and north of here?

It will (read: should) expand and the track of that huge electric blob of madness will correct to a more northerly path.

I would worry more about being directly under it 😄

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Interesting radar for south of the IOW, on my path too. Will report what I get when It arrives!

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Just now, Met4Cast said:

Very, very slowly lightning activity is edging into the channel now

What do you think met4cast, worth me staying up in Broadstairs or no?

 

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3 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

So is it worth staying up for ? 🙂

 

I honestly don't know

But If I'm honest with myself, it's probably more hope than what will end up happening, but who knows? Anyone ? 😜

Edited by Christchurch storm nut

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1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

What do you think met4cast, worth me staying up in Broadstairs or no?

 

Ehhhhh I don't know.. It's very much a radar watching situation and until there's significant movement across the channel it's anyones guess where they'll end up

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With this heat and humidity I can't sleep well anyway, and there's a SpaceX Falcon9 Heavy launch around 4am that i'm staying up for. Latest Met Office forecast looks good for some multicells across the Midlands/NW by the morning hours.

 

Edited by SNOW_JOKE

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Over Kent I can see that it's moving south east but I don't know if it's all moving south east or if it's separating 

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2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It will (read: should) expand and the track of that huge electric blob of madness will correct to a more northerly path.

I would worry more about being directly under it 😄

Really hoping to see something as mum and I are waiting patiently on Worthing seafront! We have a cool box with supplies so we are fed and watered lol. Rain easing slightly now too

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The Rennes cells should be on a trajectory path of what the models/forecast's show as these developed west of the La mans cells of which i think will miss the SE 

also the latest radar grabs show that the Rennes cells have backed west slightly

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1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

With this heat and humidity I can't sleep well anyway, and there's a SpaceX Falcon9 Heavy launch around 4am that i'm staying up for anyway. Latest Met Office forecast looks good for some multicells across the Midlands/NW by the morning hours.

 

We're under a heavy rain warning here, not a thunderstorm one. However, I don't even see where this heavy rain is going to emerge from up here?

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I'm beginning to burn out here. I'm hearing a lot of promises, but not a lot is happening. And I don't see any indication of unstable air masses injecting into something over wherever to revitalise the UK wash out.

I'll persist a bit longer, but we really need that Rennes mass to start blowing up. Apart from that, there is a suspicious divergence beginning to happen that appears to go west and east of Barry's Hatch, but not actually into it.

 

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We could have watched the entire Lord of the Rings trilogy in the time this storm is taking to cross the channel. Sods law it'll speed up and blast through the second it touches the UK. 

1674332981_Screenshot2019-06-25at00_52_13.thumb.png.4c56283c491ccafb9f9fd2777d06ad10.png

Definite northwards progress now though.

Edited by Met4Cast

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Just now, StormLoser said:

I'm beginning to burn out here. I'm hearing a lot of promises, but not a lot is happening. And I don't see any indication of unstable air masses injecting into something over wherever to revitalise the UK wash out.

I'll persist a bit longer, but we really need that Rennes mass to start blowing up. Apart from that, there is a suspicious divergence beginning to happen that appears to go west and east of Barry's Hatch, but not actually into it.

 

Give it another 45 mins and you’ll start to see the plume destabilising over the channel

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We're under a heavy rain warning here, not a thunderstorm one. However, I don't even see where this heavy rain is going to emerge from up here?

Could be outflow from the MCS in the SE causing some local convergence zones towards the Midlands, with enough lifting to trigger something off.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We're under a heavy rain warning here, not a thunderstorm one. However, I don't even see where this heavy rain is going to emerge from up here?

Ooooh what are they sending up in the Heavy this time?

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4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Give it another 45 mins and you’ll start to see the plume destabilising over the channel

I can manage that! I see the storm NW of Rouen is hugging the coast. The radar track suggests rotation in it, but it might be my rheumy old eyes...

The spawning zone at Rennes has also left the town, and is drifting north.

Edited by StormLoser

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Will the jet stream help to push the storms across the channel? If that's the case..well the jet stream won't be strong enough until 2am+ (I'm not expert)

Edited by Raindrops
typo

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Right.

I've got pro-plus for anybody who's refusing to give up.

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Also have a look on the radar it seems the storm is expanding towards the east at the shores of France 

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