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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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57 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I refuse to accept that this will be another Kent Clipper type scenario, with the models changing all the time. I think the best thing to do is to just watch the radar and see what happens. 

 

That big band of precipitation near Guernsey looks to be heading in a N/NNE direction, and is set to hit roughly the West and also the Midlands. I think there could be one or two surprises from this if and when it reaches here. 

 

Its finally brightening up here somewhat too..

Was trying to brighten up here as well, still cloudy mind but you could tell the sun was trying to break through a little

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Suns just burnt through here after cloud all day, Certainly feels hot in it.

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Any idea when we could expect to see the first signs of life in France for tonight? 

Not panicking, more so that I know when to start radar watching! 🙂

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1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

Those cells along the Welsh border literally came from nowhere 😮

I did say there was TCU building a few hours ago,and nothing here but a thundery shower to the south heard 6 rumbles a while back.

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4 minutes ago, Scott Page said:

are those cells in Wales still producing lightning? looks like they heading NNE

The one over Oswestry is, the one south of Shrewsbury seems to have stopped producing sferics 

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Just now, Thunderstruck said:

Any idea when we could expect to see the first signs of life in France for tonight? 

Not panicking, more so that I know when to start radar watching! 🙂

About now, all I see is showers and a broad area of rain.

i spy with my little eye something beginning with B......

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1 minute ago, Alderc said:

About now, all I see is showers and a broad area of rain.

i spy with my little eye something beginning with B......

It's remarkably...unremarkable out there. Although there is an interesting developing line north of Angers...

Edited by StormLoser

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Something's brewing (looking west towards Herefordshire)

 

Brewing_weather.png

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When that line of cloud came over a few big spots of rain,top of 1 cloud turned very small parted off, and the wind changed direction to the west so a convergence line.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

About now, all I see is showers and a broad area of rain.

i spy with my little eye something beginning with B......

Far too early to call it a bust. Would say it's a bust when there have been no lightning strikes across SE England/North France at midnight.

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Models generally don’t indicate much in the way of developments across N France until around or after 9pm. Little while to go yet. 

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4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

About now, all I see is showers and a broad area of rain.

i spy with my little eye something beginning with B......

Initiation should be around 8-9pm over NW France

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6.14 calling a bust. 

 

 

This Worked a treat least week

😉

 

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That storm over N Shrewsbury has quickly intensified.

Edited by zmstorm

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This area looks promising to me; represented well by some decent convective clouds on the Sat24 within the mass of cloud.

 

This.jpg

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Can hear the Shrewsbury cell on the radio. A spheric about every eight seconds. I can only dream of that sort of strike rate here. 

Edited by Chris.R

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WOW The storm north of Shrewsbury has gone nuts... 22 stikes per min. im off out in the car to have a good look in the car... 

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N Shrewsbury cell has suddenly intensified, think it is heading NE towards Stoke and Macclesfield?

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Latest NMM looks interesting? Two areas of interest...

Hmm.thumb.png.10a85e513237f00711650d610416cec6.png

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Would expect development In the 8-9 range. Also the placement of development is the most important thing like last week.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Latest NMM looks interesting? Two areas of interest...

Hmm.thumb.png.10a85e513237f00711650d610416cec6.png

Is that more North West to other models?

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3 minutes ago, Scott Page said:

N Shrewsbury cell has suddenly intensified, think it is heading NE towards Stoke and Macclesfield?

It had better not- it came from Oswestry direction, if it gets 10 miles away and then effs off in that direction it'll prove most storms are allergic to this area

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Just now, Summer of 95 said:

It had better not- it came from Oswestry direction, if it gets 10 miles away and then effs off in that direction it'll prove most storms are allergic to this area

we don't get any either, although it does seem to be veering more westerly now

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