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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    1 minute ago, Supacell said:

    I use netweather extra. You do have to pay a small subscription but radar extra is only £3.95/month. It is really good as it provides 5 minute updates and also offers location zoom and so I can see where my car is in relation to the storms. 

    Ah thankyou for the information, i will think about making the purchase!, also do you think broadstairs will get hit?

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    Caught some lovely structure last night. Just South of Hailsham, E Sussex, looking toward the coast.

    This courtesy of one of my closest friend’s Dad in Eastbourne...crank the sound right up!! Amazing! 3EC4CEA2-31E0-4E40-B801-02CA5200BA65.MP4

    In my storm watching spot for the night at Caterham view point on the southern edge of M25?

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    We're probably looking at the best chance of severe thunderstorms across the SE/EA than we've seen for a while.

    CAPE isn't all that extreme but it's there, thankfully the storms will be developing across N France in a much higher CAPE/LI environment, the CAPE over the SE will only serve to allow storms to continue tracking northwards across the region 

    4873812_MLCAPE.thumb.png.d57c1a9a196322cf274c7464faa1a231.png

    PWAT is moderately high so some areas have the potential to see A LOT of rainfall in a very short space of time, I think flooding could be a risk tonight more than anything else 

    PWAT.thumb.png.4f1c932da05a6bd64c5c4a85b82ad50f.png

    Fairly steep lapse rates, not significantly strong over the UK but decent, almost supercell territory across the channel 

    LAPSE.thumb.png.1a81943a39b8da9a25b0337bf2736cc0.png

    DLS is almost off the scale however! This should allow storms to remain organised, MCS very likely, supercell a low risk but a possibility given strong shear levels

    DLS.thumb.png.2a99d050ab6d43b8442e96d246bd7cad.png

    Moderate risk of severe (MCS) storms moving N from about 11pm-4am bringing frequent lightning (most likely elevated) gusty winds, torrential rain & hail. Small possibility given the shear profile of storms becoming supercellular in nature possibly producing funnel clouds/an isolated weak tornado, though rotational shear looks relatively weak and probably wouldn't be able to maintain a tornado for any real length of time.

    AROME.jpg

    Edited by Met4Cast
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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
    1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

    Ah thankyou for the information, i will think about making the purchase!, also do you think broadstairs will get hit?

    I would think slightly further west would be best favoured but plume type thunderstorm set ups are very difficult to forecast with total accuracy. If I was going to stick my neck out I would say Brighton, through central London and up the M11 at a guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    We're probably looking at the best chance of severe thunderstorms across the SE/EA than we've seen for a while.

    CAPE isn't all that extreme but it's there, thankfully the storms will be developing across N France in a much higher CAPE/LI environment, the CAPE over the SE will only serve to allow storms to continue tracking northwards across the region 

    4873812_MLCAPE.thumb.png.d57c1a9a196322cf274c7464faa1a231.png

    PWAT is moderately high so some areas have the potential to see A LOT of rainfall in a very short space of time, I think flooding could be a risk tonight more than anything else 

    PWAT.thumb.png.4f1c932da05a6bd64c5c4a85b82ad50f.png

    Fairly steep lapse rates, not significantly strong over the UK but decent, almost supercell territory across the channel 

    LAPSE.thumb.png.1a81943a39b8da9a25b0337bf2736cc0.png

    DLS is almost off the scale however! This should allow storms to remain organised, MCS very likely, supercell a low risk but a possibility given strong shear levels

    DLS.thumb.png.2a99d050ab6d43b8442e96d246bd7cad.png

     

    AROME.jpg

    With the last image, im at the very end of the south east and i dont see any of rainfall logged, is that not a sign to me missing the storms at my location?

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

    With the last image, im at the very end of the south east and i dont see any of rainfall logged, is that not a sign to me missing the storms at my location?

    I wouldn't get hung up on exact PPN placements, it's far too uncertain to look at it in that level of detail 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    I would think slightly further west would be best favoured but plume type thunderstorm set ups are very difficult to forecast with total accuracy. If I was going to stick my neck out I would say Brighton, through central London and up the M11 at a guess.

    Supercell if you are near the Ashdown forest area send me an pm I know of some good viewing spots there. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    It definitely feels like the potential for some good thunderstorms here. Very humid. Lots of little bugs and flies around too, annoying me every time I go outside.

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
    1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

    A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

    I know you can't post a chart but would ukv favour east or west of London?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

    A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

    enough though in that case to safely call a no-storm show for this area....won't waste my time radar watching tonight

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    Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

    Sun now coming out here and it is very, very humid. Some signs of instability in the sky too. If all goes to plan this could be a very good night 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

    Met Office update seems to match that of the 03z output below

    There are 2 areas of interest tonight I think,  the Bristol/East Wales/Shropshire area marked, and the IOW/Reading/London/SE area.

    Screenshot_15.thumb.jpg.c3c708e67cfb86f0a1d98413236c882a.jpg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    Just been out too and the sun's trying to get out. Can see some convection and ever so often we get a breeze which i'm thankful for. Been awhile since it's been so muggy and warm. (feels like a swimming pool outside)

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    does look like two seperate areas according to the Arome post above.

    Slightly less intense to the west and then a beastly area to the east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Storms/Rain
  • Location: Portsmouth

    Clouds picking up here on the coast, some quite dark. 

    30 degree heat at work for the past 3 days (chef life) the heat is crippling ?

    not pinning too much hope on tonight but would be lovely for some cleaner air! 

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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

    Met Office update seems to match that of the 03z output below

    There are 2 areas of interest tonight I think,  the Bristol/East Wales/Shropshire area marked, and the IOW/Reading/London/SE area.

    Screenshot_15.thumb.jpg.c3c708e67cfb86f0a1d98413236c882a.jpg

     

    Could you explain the arrows surrounding the areas please, sorry i have not studied meteorology, couldnt stand other parts of geography for example human geography  

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    I know you can't post a chart but would ukv favour east or west of London?

    Just going by the 12Z, i'd either get myself to somewhere between Bognor and Eastbourne, or if you didn't want to go down that far, perhaps somewhere between Hertfordshire and Essex?!

    2 minutes ago, A.J said:

    enough though in that case to safely call a no-storm show for this area....won't waste my time radar watching tonight

    I was going to say the opposite.. lol
    The good thing about the UKV is, each run starts with current observations and runs 8 times a day. It's just these are dreadful synoptics for pinning anything down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    WOW what a storm! I have never seen rain that intense closest would be the July 2015 storm, went from nothing to gutters overflowing in seconds, almost certain there will be local flooding, also a definite wind shift in the middle so not sure if some rotation, I will try and upload vids to my YouTube later, I was right under the purple on radar, some lightning and gunshot thunder too.Screenshot_20190624_153019.thumb.jpg.35295e76e0e5ef1c1d40227d66a2d76d.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
  • Location: Melton Mowbray

    sat in an air conditioned office, so no idea how it feels outside,  has been quite murky and misty all day here.

    Weather station at home says it is 20.3°C and 86% humidity 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
    1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

    Could you explain the arrows surrounding the areas please, sorry i have not studied meteorology, couldnt stand other parts of geography for example human geography  

    I haven't studied Meteorology either.  But the arrows are just markers to show the areas of interest,  they are where I think sferic activity will occur.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

    I haven't studied Meteorology either.  But the arrows are just markers to show the areas of interest,  they are where I think sferic activity will occur.

    I think they mean, why those areas?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

    Not liking these incremental shifts - I'm desperately hoping I'm not going to be on the western fringes under torrential rain and getting occasional flickers from the eastern edge. 

    Naturally, I'm hoping even more so that we get storms at all....

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
    2 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

    sat in an air conditioned office, so no idea how it feels outside,  has been quite murky and misty all day here.

    Weather station at home says it is 20.3°C and 86% humidity 

     

    Very jealous, it's reached 28C in our office so far with condensation on all cold surfaces (such as water bottles). Outside peaked at 26C with a dew point of 20C, which is quite impressive for UK standards. Not pleasant to work in though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
    2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Just going by the 12Z, i'd either get myself to somewhere between Bognor and Eastbourne, or if you didn't want to go down that far, perhaps somewhere between Hertfordshire and Essex?!

    Thanks for that. I would be willing to go as far as the south coast but I may not need to.

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