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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Caught some lovely structure last night. Just South of Hailsham, E Sussex, looking toward the coast.

This courtesy of one of my closest friend’s Dad in Eastbourne...crank the sound right up!! Amazing! 3EC4CEA2-31E0-4E40-B801-02CA5200BA65.MP4

In my storm watching spot for the night at Caterham view point on the southern edge of M25?

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    6 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

    I have a question that I haven't seen anyone ask or answer, and I don't even know whether it can really happen, but somewhere I heard that if storms are strong enough e.g. a supercell/MCS, they can move a completely different direction to the steering wind making it quite irrelevant, if this is true some people possibly may have a few surprises tonight, but like I said I don't know if it is true.

    Any facts, opinions or thoughts about this? 

    They often move East of the steering flow (right mover) due to clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere, so they would move even further away from the SE in that case unfortunately.

    Edited by Azazel
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    They often move East of the steering flow (right mover) due to clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere, so they would move even further away from the SE in that case unfortunately.

    Don't flows associated with depressions in the northern hemisphere spin anticlockwise? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    Just now, PerfectStorm said:

    Don't flows associated with depressions in the northern hemisphere spin anticlockwise? 

    whoops yep, other way around.

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    More thunder rumbling here, black as night outside, looks like another cell about to arrive ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Wrong quote

    Edited by Chris.R
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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    8 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    whoops yep, other way around.

     I think you are right it is clockwise. Pretty sure. The Coriolis force. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    The cloud over us today will make no difference to tonights storm risk. These are not "home grown" storms. They'll initiate and build across N France and then move across the channel. Still some uncertainty exactly "where" the highest risk zone will be, but based on a blend of high res models (discounting GFS/all over low res models) & past experience in these situations, I've created this.

    Twitter.thumb.png.75058cd4214d5b5139cfbf787aa83515.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
    3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

     I think you are right it is clockwise. Pretty sure. The Coriolis force. 

    Yes... 

    Cyclone - Clockwise

    Anticyclone - Anticlockwise

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    6 minutes ago, Selliso said:

    Yes... 

    Cyclone - Clockwise

    Anticyclone - Anticlockwise

     No it is the other way around. Cyclones spinning anticlockwise  is therefor opposite to the Coriolis force but they’re a special case. All air is flowing towards the centre of the low, and this gets deflected to the right causing anticlockwise spin. The Coriolis force on its own is always clockwise. 

    Edited by Chris.R
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

     I think you are right it is clockwise. Pretty sure. The Coriolis force. 

    That's the phrase I was looking for. In that case then yes it's correct. As the broad movement is spinning anti-clockwise, any smaller features tend to spin off to the right - a bit like being on a children's roundabout and flying off it in the opposite direction (I should know). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    I have to say the environment west of Paris around Caen, Le Mans, Rennes etc doesn't currently appear to be overly conducive to explosive convection. The flow is NNE so anything firing east of Le Mans will miss the UK but west of here where we should be looking for developments its currently only 20-24C with some showery rain and cloud. To exploit the massive amounts of MUCAPE you'd need to get to 28-30C to see it pop? 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

     No it is the other way around. Cyclones do spin anticlockwise but they’re a special case. All air is flowing towards the centre of the low, and this gets deflected to the right causing anticlockwise spin. The Coriolis force on its own is always clockwise 

    A coople of cells over NE Wales, maybe heading into the Merseyside area. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    A very imby post but I hope these track in a more northerly or even in a slightly northwesterly direction. 

    Worst case scenario I can think of is it tracking too far east resulting in it being (yet another) Kent Clipper/SE event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    I need storms to initiate around Rennes to have any kind of chance I think. Sferics to the west of Le Mans would put current developments on a course for Brighton/Kent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

    Estofex giving Level 2 more hope for storms now for here

     

    CB96CD2B-B073-462D-8EBE-BDF1EC5B1C58.jpeg

    Edited by JK1
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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
    2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

    A very imby post but I hope these track in a more northerly or even in a slightly northwesterly direction. 

    Worst case scenario I can think of is it tracking too far east resulting in it being (yet another) Kent Clipper/SE event.

    I agree! Westward shift!

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Yep a cell coming towards me now. Don’t hold out much hope with the current wind profile but we’ll see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs

    I dont know the accuracy of this but this website is displaying a much more different model to the reset of the forcasts, your point of views on this please ?storm.thumb.png.c1c1cdd4ac4c9714ba61ece3d3c101df.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

    I dont know the accuracy of this but this website is displaying a much more different model to the reset of the forcasts, your point of views on this please ?storm.thumb.png.c1c1cdd4ac4c9714ba61ece3d3c101df.png

    It isn't.

    It's saying the likelihood of severe storms is strongest in the south eastern corner up to London, decreasing the further west you go, which is what all models are pretty much saying.

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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs

    Ah okay. Was just a bit confused as media like met office, bbc weather etc on there video forcasts were displaying the storm to be more towards the west than east, was just confused from the two, thankyou for the information ?

     

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