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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Not looked at the latest radar but, as much as it would be personally preferable to see tonight’s possible thundery monster track directly through the Midlands, have a feeling that London (maybe just to the West of it), will feel the full force of the monster! 

    Double Edit: A great forecast, however, by BrickFielder; will be interesting how it all developes! 

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Caught some lovely structure last night. Just South of Hailsham, E Sussex, looking toward the coast.

    This courtesy of one of my closest friend’s Dad in Eastbourne...crank the sound right up!! Amazing! 3EC4CEA2-31E0-4E40-B801-02CA5200BA65.MP4

    In my storm watching spot for the night at Caterham view point on the southern edge of M25?

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull

    Bloody typical. Storms forecast the one night I'm away. Flying out of Heathrow at 8 tonight. Thankfully storms look to be much later so hopefully no delays. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Calne, Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & storms.
  • Location: Calne, Wiltshire

    MO app suggesting the sun will come out this afternoon. Does that improve my chances of a thunderstorm later? Was expecting grey skies all day

    95008093-21CA-4089-A4C8-A8F6E921205C.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

    Any chances of storms in Worthing area today or tonight

    I wait 

    31FB0C25-F38B-419D-A4AB-A6FC9271D81F.gif

    Edited by JK1
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I'm a bit busy to  make a better assessment at the moment but the UKV has shifted slightly West, not by much. It shows a larger area too, but I fear the emphasis is more towards rainfall.

    (For tonight in the South)

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Latest ICON showing at least heavy showers (possibly thunderstorms) across the West Midlands, as well as that cluster of more organized storms up through the London area. 

     

    image.thumb.png.8ec1e8b271818258e87e0f902c4e24ce.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    Met Office radar forecasts for today:

    image.thumb.png.fb8a357877831d3f92a0813ce0b2b29d.png  image.thumb.png.0ad5a5c62bc4304c2808c0d2f5ec7b7f.pngimage.thumb.png.c2bc8ffa58710b84c5dc49f7e2a42ef0.pngimage.thumb.png.77a35f966c5ddd8a882df2083c85a67f.png   

    Then for the main event tonight...
    image.thumb.png.0457e82fdcf4fb339793297960414b85.pngimage.thumb.png.513f6feebaa764344a096c684b8eb2bb.pngimage.thumb.png.cfd721562c416b0962a92ac5d67e63ca.pngimage.thumb.png.df27d176b3186ffa706b0b74f403718d.png   

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
    Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Met Office radar forecasts for today:

    image.thumb.png.fb8a357877831d3f92a0813ce0b2b29d.png  image.thumb.png.0ad5a5c62bc4304c2808c0d2f5ec7b7f.pngimage.thumb.png.c2bc8ffa58710b84c5dc49f7e2a42ef0.pngimage.thumb.png.77a35f966c5ddd8a882df2083c85a67f.png   

    Then for the main event tonight...
    image.thumb.png.0457e82fdcf4fb339793297960414b85.pngimage.thumb.png.513f6feebaa764344a096c684b8eb2bb.pngimage.thumb.png.cfd721562c416b0962a92ac5d67e63ca.pngimage.thumb.png.df27d176b3186ffa706b0b74f403718d.png   

    Thanks, having doubts whether tonight will be just a mass of heavy rain and nothing that will light up the sky!

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    5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    ....................but I fear the emphasis is more towards rainfall......

    Rain Rain Rain in Spain.

    Looking at the radar, we see that the only lightening on the horizon is north of the Scottish border. The celtic deities are dualing up there on the Grampians.

    Further south, we see a slow moving area of humid drizzle moving across the South East and across the home counties. 

    Across the Channel, just reaching across the Channel Islands now, we see a large area of rain. In most cases whereby the South East benefits from migrating continental storms, these are already highly active prior the crossing the English Channel. At present we ses just large, disorganised rain. That being said, with sufficient heating and decent convection during the day today, by the time this area of rain reaches the South coast, we might have a different picture.

    For Tuesday , some models show the likelyhood of storms highest across Cambridgeshire into north-western East Anglia and the Boston area. That is probably the best bet for Tuesday while today, the South East looks as good as anywhere

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    SDC10900.thumb.JPG.8ec8c15f3dd5df720ed0818814c7c32c.JPG

    Just an old photo from 2014 stormy sky near Heywood, Bury. Sometimes neat stuff comes to you. Lawnchairs and a flask of tea

    Edited by Guest
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
    32 minutes ago, Calneee said:

    MO app suggesting the sun will come out this afternoon. Does that improve my chances of a thunderstorm later? Was expecting grey skies all day

    95008093-21CA-4089-A4C8-A8F6E921205C.jpeg

    You have raised a good point there, sunshine, 24C in this type of humid airmass would trigger off local thundery showers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Latest GFS puts the highest risk (at least going by the highest rainfall totals) across the heart of England (I.e. Oxford to Leicester). Looks more like an area of thundery rain. 

    image.thumb.png.0bba55192e70fa6d897457b6a236d2fb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Feels muggy outside although it’s been misty all morning and it doesn’t look like it will lift anytime soon. 

     

    Im doubtful the sun will even make an appearance in these parts today. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

    Latest GFS puts the highest risk (at least going by the highest rainfall totals) across the heart of England (I.e. Oxford to Leicester). Looks more like an area of thundery rain. 

    image.thumb.png.0bba55192e70fa6d897457b6a236d2fb.png

    I'm inclined to agree - unless we are of course on the cusp of an absolutely monstrous MCS.

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    Morning all, certainly potential for storms today but alas not for mby, forecast has now got us down for a light shower this afternoon, maybe a bit of heavier rain overnight but nothing thundery or noteworthy, very cool and cloudy here at the mo and breeze starting to pick up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Metoffice rainfall radar and gfs now put most of the action across the midlands!!ridiculous move west compared to this time yesterday!!east anglia and south east look to miss out!!could be just thundery rain and nothing more though!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Sun is coming out at last. 19.9°C. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Shame tonight's storms don't arrive earlier as here we miss out on lightning during the night. Might be case of getting up at 4/5am

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
    1 hour ago, Harry said:

    I was just about to post @BrickFielder - while there seems to be a lot of consensus on storms tonight, I am struggling to find a model which actually shows any instability. Most models show the arrival of intense precipitation around 0z to 06z tomorrow however GFS and WRF (which give us MUCAPE models) do lot have any instability arriving until after this period. This is despite MetO, Estofex and ConvectiveWeather all suggesting thunderstorms.

    Help!?!?!? 

    Edit - Euro4 (which I know many members rely on as a good model in the short term) favouring a more westerly track (C/S England) but not arriving until circa 03z.

    Hi Harry, I'm not quite sure what you mean - nearly all models have reasonable CAPE over the English Channel, SE England and East Anglia tonight?

    viewimage.pbx.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
    6 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Metoffice rainfall radar and gfs now put most of the action across the midlands!!ridiculous move west compared to this time yesterday!!east anglia and south east look to miss out!!could be just thundery rain and nothing more though!!

    I think that would relate to the warming up of the atmosphere in the Midlands, like a pan warming popcorn.  Other locaitons, N England/ East, SE have had rain last night, and today that will hamper that solar energy , although elevated. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    I'll take a punt and say that those further West will see a more dynamic area of heavy rain - of course this may include embedded thunderstorms with the main threat being high rainfall totals leading to flooding. More pronounced, scattered thunderstorms may develop to the east of the main band which could cluster into an MCS (but really who knows!). 
     

    image.thumb.png.67f469ce873adb477958aed6c91e530a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
    6 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

    Hi Harry, I'm not quite sure what you mean - nearly all models have reasonable CAPE over the English Channel, SE England and East Anglia tonight?

    viewimage.pbx.png

    Indeed, the MUCAPE has been modelled further towards N.France/BELUX during the weekend but has been slowly drifting west over the past runs. But just one of many other ingredients

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Sferics kicked off in Lancashire. 

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