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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Manchester TAF: EGCC 240558Z 2406/2512 36008KT 9000 FEW040 BECMG 2406/2409 9999 PROB30 TEMPO 2409/2416 3000 +SHRA TEMPO 2412/2416 6000 SHRA BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 2412/2416 +TSGS BECMG 2421/2424 6000 BKN005 TEMPO 2503/2512 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2503/2509 2000 +TSRA BKN004

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    Caught some lovely structure last night. Just South of Hailsham, E Sussex, looking toward the coast.

    This courtesy of one of my closest friend’s Dad in Eastbourne...crank the sound right up!! Amazing! 3EC4CEA2-31E0-4E40-B801-02CA5200BA65.MP4

    In my storm watching spot for the night at Caterham view point on the southern edge of M25?

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London

    On my walk to the station - while it’s largely irrelevant in terms of elevated activity, it is HUMID this morning with the sun shining through. Icky best sums it up - for the first time this year I’m going to say “we need some storms to clear the air!”.

    Just maybe we might be in luck tonight unless the models re-align or any storms take a cheeky NE track across E Kent.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    If the models see right that stuff in the channel should start to fragment and break up.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Manchester TAF: EGCC 240558Z 2406/2512 36008KT 9000 FEW040 BECMG 2406/2409 9999 PROB30 TEMPO 2409/2416 3000 +SHRA TEMPO 2412/2416 6000 SHRA BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 2412/2416 +TSGS BECMG 2421/2424 6000 BKN005 TEMPO 2503/2512 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2503/2509 2000 +TSRA BKN004

     The same at Liverpool except no TS mentioned for tomorrow.  Only goes out 24 hours though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
    10 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

    I hope not.

    Why ever not? I’d much rather a sunnier, warmer day with clearer skies than nuisance rain that’ll only serve to make the atmosphere murky and any storms that develop tonight more difficult to see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Today is basically a throw a dart at a map of southern England and hope for the best. Just about every single model has a different track for the storms moving out of the channel. 

    We do have a rare level 2 from estofex across the SE though!

    2019062506_201906240302_2_stormforecast_xml.thumb.png.6b2ae0e2c851edf9615c82e88af56ed3.png

    http://www.estofex.org/

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Today is basically a throw a dart at a map of southern England and hope for the best. Just about every single model has a different track for the storms moving out of the channel. 

    We do have a rare level 2 from estofex across the SE though!

    2019062506_201906240302_2_stormforecast_xml.thumb.png.6b2ae0e2c851edf9615c82e88af56ed3.png

    http://www.estofex.org/

    Was thinking the same thing Dan....I was literally just thinking "hmm, is there a westerly bias on the NMM as everything tonight is modelled much further west than other modelling" 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

     The surface wind veers from ESE to WNW around midday; convergence zone? Cold front? If anything was going to happen here it would be with that. After that there is an on-shore wind until Thursday. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    7 minutes ago, A.J said:

    Was thinking the same thing Dan....I was literally just thinking "hmm, is there a westerly bias on the NMM as everything tonight is modelled much further west than other modelling" 

    Based on experience I think AROME might be fairly close to the mark, all other modelling goes further West, can pretty much discount any low res (ahem, GFS) models on this one

    AROME.thumb.jpg.fa43ef3e119cbebd88ce9c71a1b128ad.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Well it was a bust last night. I decided to set an alarm for my phone at midnight for the chance of seeing some distant storms although I somehow fell into a deep sleep and wasn't woken up. Although I didn't miss anything so I'm glad I slept through that night.

    But, all eyes are now focused on tonight. The track of the thunderstorms is just a touch to the east of me although that won't rule out some distant lightning tonight and through the early part of Tuesday morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    METO predictive rainfall had storms pretty much edging in to SE then EA and up NE earlier when I looked for 1am tomorrow onwards, but after just looking again they now have storms running up through central Southern England, Midlands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
    12 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Based on experience I think AROME might be fairly close to the mark, all other modelling goes further West, can pretty much discount any low res (ahem, GFS) models on this one

    AROME.thumb.jpg.fa43ef3e119cbebd88ce9c71a1b128ad.jpg

    Never seen this website for charts before - cheers Dan!

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    17 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Based on experience I think AROME might be fairly close to the mark, all other modelling goes further West, can pretty much discount any low res (ahem, GFS) models on this one

    AROME.thumb.jpg.fa43ef3e119cbebd88ce9c71a1b128ad.jpg

    Arome is modeling this mornings rain worst of them all.. Bin 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Arome is modeling this mornings rain worst of them all.. Bin 

    I'm just using it to highlight the most probable path of tonights storms, not necessarily singing it's praises just using it to show where my thoughts are. I still think a majority of models are too far West.

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

    Maybe a couple of small showers over the Midlands and S/C England, will keep an eye over the next couple of hours.

    Edit - Yep they are definitely developing!

    Edited by Sparkiee storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
    4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    I'm just using it to highlight the most probable path of tonights storms, not necessarily singing it's praises just using it to show where my thoughts are. I still think a majority of models are too far West.

    I agree - for now the 00z AROME looks like a good bet for tonight's track. Storms tend to drift slightly further east than modelled (and tend to expand a little further east too). Will be interesting to see how it all plays out later today...

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    5 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

    I agree - for now the 00z AROME looks like a good bet for tonight's track. Storms tend to drift slightly further east than modelled (and tend to expand a little further east too). Will be interesting to see how it all plays out later today...

    Wouldnt bet on it when all.other models have pushed it further west now with the central england bearing the brunt of any storms!could still be right of course but its amazing how everything has pushed further west when normally it goes east lol!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
    1 hour ago, Stormhog said:

    My mate has the car fueled up, I have the camera gear, it's dark out, and we're wearing sunglasses.
    Hit it!

    Would you want to meet up? Not far from each other. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

     It needs to go further west again. Come on, west west west. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

     It needs to go further west again. Come on, west west west. 

    No no..

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

     If sky's remain a little clearer over the east and depending on which forecast model you look at then there is a chance of storms for East Anglia around midday. I have a suspicion that the clearer air will not remain however.
     Most forecast SkewT's show moist upper layers which will mean high cloud cover so I am not convinced of any day time storms today apart from Ireland.
     What I do notice from the Satellite charts is marked divergence aloft over northern Spain at the moment. This is forecast to move northwards which could affect the prospects for overnight elevated storms.
      Positioning of overnight storms tonight are all over the place and the timing is not much better. Depending on timing storms could root into the boundary just after dawn possibly over East Anglia. Mid Level Lapse rates over the UK are of particular concern because they are not really conducive to storm formation (Tricky to assess because elevated mixed layers suggest lower lapse rates than they really are)
      It might be better to watch the satellite imagery and review the midday soundings rather than look at forecast models in my view for today.

    hgt30027.png

    gfs_pvort2_eur12.png

    gfs_lapse2_eur24.png

    nmmuk3hrpreciptue03.png

    nmmuk3hrpreciptue06.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
    9 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

     If sky's remain a little clearer over the east and depending on which forecast model you look at then there is a chance of storms for East Anglia around midday. I have a suspicion that the clearer air will not remain however.
     Most forecast SkewT's show moist upper layers which will mean high cloud cover so I am not convinced of any day time storms today apart from Ireland.
     What I do notice from the Satellite charts is marked divergence aloft over northern Spain at the moment. This is forecast to move northwards which could affect the prospects for overnight elevated storms.
      Positioning of overnight storms tonight are all over the place and the timing is not much better. Depending on timing storms could root into the boundary just after dawn possibly over East Anglia. Mid Level Lapse rates over the UK are of particular concern because they are not really conducive to storm formation (Tricky to assess because elevated mixed layers suggest lower lapse rates than they really are)
      It might be better to watch the satellite imagery and review the midday soundings rather than look at forecast models in my view for today.

    hgt30027.png

    gfs_pvort2_eur12.png

    gfs_lapse2_eur24.png

    nmmuk3hrpreciptue03.png

    nmmuk3hrpreciptue06.png

    I was just about to post @BrickFielder - while there seems to be a lot of consensus on storms tonight, I am struggling to find a model which actually shows any instability. Most models show the arrival of intense precipitation around 0z to 06z tomorrow however GFS and WRF (which give us MUCAPE models) do lot have any instability arriving until after this period. This is despite MetO, Estofex and ConvectiveWeather all suggesting thunderstorms.

    Help!?!?!? 

    Edit - Euro4 (which I know many members rely on as a good model in the short term) favouring a more westerly track (C/S England) but not arriving until circa 03z.

    Edited by Harry
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