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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    A bit presumptuous to cancel a convective forecast based on soundings made 4 hours ago, before the instability of the plume had even begun.

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    Caught some lovely structure last night. Just South of Hailsham, E Sussex, looking toward the coast.

    This courtesy of one of my closest friend’s Dad in Eastbourne...crank the sound right up!! Amazing! 3EC4CEA2-31E0-4E40-B801-02CA5200BA65.MP4

    In my storm watching spot for the night at Caterham view point on the southern edge of M25?

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    What about the ISO,do i set it to the lowest?

     

    Unfortunately the best ISO setting is really only found through experimentation as it will be dependant on a lot of factors at play - distance of the lightning, cloud level, rain haze, even camera and lens type.

    I’m hoping you get a decent long-lived event soon, as this will be a perfect proving ground - just remember to take notes of what worked (mind you it should all be wrapped in the EXIF/meta from the media files you end up with)

    good luck!

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    I think the forecast for storms tonight is a bust!!also the euro4 has not really forecast any storms for midlands wales and east anglia apart from the band of rain from the warm front heading north tonight into north england!! I think we all just hopecasting now!!hopefully am proved wrong!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
    15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    What about iso,do set it to the lowest?

     

    I always set to lowest.....because a lightning flash especially close one`s are brighter than a sunny day.....but Flash has made a good point

    Skies above Birmingham are showing instabilaty atm

    1669545825_satnot.thumb.jpg.6661619f80d494de67ee0d3b5e4cea07.jpg

    Edited by Arnie Pie
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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    5 minutes ago, Harry said:

    Latest from PJB for tonight - doesn’t make great reading chaps/chapettes:

    The 17Z Nottingham Ascent shows that there is a very small amount of instability associated with an Elevated Mixed Layer, but it will only allow for some very slight convective growth before running into less unstable air above. The Ascent not conducive to any form of convection initiation and therefore on the basis of this sounding for my forecast i am now cancelling it completely. Thermodynamic profiles totally different in structure to what i was initially expecting to see and far too warm at 500mbs. Essentially fairly frontal with a very small layer of instability.  

    Convective Outlook from PJB Cancelled. This one won by Mother Nature who had different ideas to me for today's evolution  

     I really don’t understand that. Surely the EML hasn’t arrived  at Nottingham yet  let alone 3 hours ago;so how are you supposed to get a good idea of the EML profile at 17Z when it’s not arrived yet.

     

    Don’t get it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    Just now, Chris.R said:

     I really don’t understand that. Surely the EML hasn’t arrived  at Nottingham yet  let alone 3 hours ago;so how are you supposed to get a good idea of the EML profile at 17Z when it’s not arrived yet.

     

    Don’t get it. 

    Yeah but no but... it’s PJB.

    Anyone else and I’d agree with you but he really knows his stuff ?

    At least Tony Gilbert hasn’t thrown in the towel yet ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

    I always set to lowest.....because a lightning flash especially close one`s are brighter than a sunny day

    Skies above birmingham are showing instabilaty atm

    1669545825_satnot.thumb.jpg.6661619f80d494de67ee0d3b5e4cea07.jpg

    Ok Arnie will have a tinkle with it,so the further away the lightning,the more ISO,got the cam in man mode and auto focus off,thanks for the heads up to you and @Flash bang flash bang etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

    Sorry for the moan but I said earlier this was  overhyped , the bbc mentioned frequent lightning in their forcast even yesterday,  I became skeptical then for NW England , 

    Frequent lightning ? moving up through the NW of England on Sunday evening ?  just as dusk is setting in ?   seemed to good to be true... If it seems to good to be true it usually is too good to be true       

    Edited by IanR
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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    1 minute ago, IanR said:

    Sorry for the moan but I said earlier this was  overhyped , the bbc mentioned frequent lightning in their forcast even yesterday,  I became skeptical then for NW England , 

    Frequent lightning ? moving up through the NW of England on Sunday evening ?  just as dusk is setting in ?   seemed to good to be true... If it seems to good to be true it usually is too good to be true       

    That’s where MUCAPE is your friend (usually) ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    @Flash bang flash bang etc Oh yes, he is brilliant, just doesn’t sound right to me. I guess we’ll see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

    The humidity has moved in now, not much wind but the smell of my honeysuckle is floating through the air.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

    I think contrary to anything anyone has said (ever) we’re gonna see cells firing in the west of the channel, sporadically at first but then to organise themselves into a NEward moving squall - but a fairly quick one - possibly missing out on the NW but ending up over lincs (coastal areas like Kings Lynn & Hull) by about 4am where they could slightly intensify into something more akin to a ‘proper’ storm.

    Lightning won’t neccesarily be frequent - but many in central midlands should get a decent show.

     

     

    just a hunch

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands Stourbridge
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder and lightning
  • Location: West Midlands Stourbridge

    Skies over Stourbridge look unstable

    9CA2426F-319B-4130-A73A-C91F558E19FF.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    I think contrary to anything anyone has said (ever) we’re gonna see cells firing in the west of the channel, sporadically at first but then to organise themselves into a NEward moving squall - but a fairly quick one - possibly missing out on the NW but ending up over lincs (coastal areas like Kings Lynn & Hull) by about 4am where they could slightly intensify into something more akin to a ‘proper’ storm.

    Lightning won’t neccesarily be frequent - but many in central midlands should get a decent show.

     

     

    just a hunch

     Steering Winds are just east of south though I think so you would expect cells there to move through the west country, up the Welsh border and into NW England/the Irish sea. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    I think there is a little wishful thinking going on here, tonight is going how I expected in respect its a quiet night with a bit of non convective rainfall. 

    Tomorrow may be more interesting though but I suppose it ain't over till its over. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

     Steering Winds are just east of south though I think so you would expect cells there to move through the west country, up the Welsh border and into NW England/the Irish sea. 

    Well the winds will have to change then

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    I don't think the weather tonight will be very eventful. Maybe some isolated storms but I think Monday night into Tuesday does look very promising. Here is the Meto radar take on things:

    image.thumb.png.36c9995d345a8b5364c0dca9a1c1fac6.pngimage.thumb.png.d339486b4c80d2d13013d60e58126e4a.pngimage.thumb.png.ba359d5f40d669575f3d76d76a33d988.pngimage.thumb.png.f8f6568a54a7dc520113bb48c5fbb208.png   

    They did well with Tuesday's storms although they went for more of a kent clipper. It was a bit more widespread then that but storms were limited to the SE. So could be a little more widespread then these screengrabs show.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I don't think the weather tonight will be very eventful. Maybe some isolated storms but I think Monday night into Tuesday does look very promising. Here is the Meto radar take on things:

    image.thumb.png.36c9995d345a8b5364c0dca9a1c1fac6.pngimage.thumb.png.d339486b4c80d2d13013d60e58126e4a.pngimage.thumb.png.ba359d5f40d669575f3d76d76a33d988.pngimage.thumb.png.f8f6568a54a7dc520113bb48c5fbb208.png   

    They did well with Tuesday's storms although they went for more of a kent clipper. It was a bit more widespread then that but storms were limited to the SE. So could be a little more widespread then these screengrabs show.

    I must admit I am having my doubts about tonight now, skies looked promising earlier but I was expecting for there to be some storms popping up already heading Northwards

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I don't think the weather tonight will be very eventful. Maybe some isolated storms but I think Monday night into Tuesday does look very promising. Here is the Meto radar take on things:

    image.thumb.png.36c9995d345a8b5364c0dca9a1c1fac6.pngimage.thumb.png.d339486b4c80d2d13013d60e58126e4a.pngimage.thumb.png.ba359d5f40d669575f3d76d76a33d988.pngimage.thumb.png.f8f6568a54a7dc520113bb48c5fbb208.png   

    They did well with Tuesday's storms although they went for more of a kent clipper. It was a bit more widespread then that but storms were limited to the SE. So could be a little more widespread then these screengrabs show.

    I like the look of that,so 00:00am onwards then,i hope it's right.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    Warm muggy air has arrived!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    It looks like cells trying to go up here in cirencester - not expecting anything here but it's often the breeding ground for storms further north - 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    ConvectiveWeather has downgraded tonight to Slight across the UK and upgraded tomorrow night to Moderate (as well as expand the Slight areas).

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