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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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Some nice elevated towers going up over N. Ireland........ 

received_620997041715548.jpeg

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I've got a feeling that lightning will start to kick off in that small cell in central Wales.

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3 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Feels positively cold here in ne england, yet were supposed to get storms! Brr.

The storms will be elevated and won't require warm air from the surface

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44 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

 

During tonight an area of increased lapse rates moves in across the western half of the UK. This I think could trigger one or two elevated storms. Here I am looking at an area from Bristol across eastern wales and across parts of the west midlands.nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.714d5422188af0b3de8b3e989b59ba1a.png

Yes the east wales/shropshire area didn't quite have the "ooomph" to create lightning earlier, the skies were primed and ready but it resulted in heavy rain only.

I think tonight as you get nocturnal cooling mixed with that humid atmosphere would be enough for 1 or 2 places to go bang.

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11 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I think it could near midnight, the skies look promising and Convective Weather hinting we could be in the best areas to get anything tonight

light rain here now, winds completly dropped off, not looking to hopefull for storms tonight, perhaps a better chance for tomorrow, but the difference in forecast between the bbc and metoffice is huge, one has no storms, the other has us down with a much better chance

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2 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

light rain here now, winds completly dropped off, not looking to hopefull for storms tonight, perhaps a better chance for tomorrow, but the difference in forecast between the bbc and metoffice is huge, one has no storms, the other has us down with a much better chance

I'm surprised BBC still hold out the idea of storms kicking off from 1am in the past day. The skies look promising with little wind but charts don't show a lot of Cape for tonight and of course after some light rain we've just had. 

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Screenshot_1.thumb.jpg.3834e9c8acb2a91aeec4e5fd32754967.jpg

I think this zone between 10pm and 4am will benefit from cooling interacting with that warmer air in the south moving up.

Will be surprised if no Elevated storms occur in this area by morning. 

Screenshot_4.thumb.jpg.656239dbdbd35845a899df58f2ca2c5a.jpg

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2 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Is that convergence / precip over pool?

I'm not far to the east of there and the sky to the west looks quite dark. 

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1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

Screenshot_1.thumb.jpg.3834e9c8acb2a91aeec4e5fd32754967.jpg

I think this zone between 10pm and 4am will benefit from cooling interacting with that warmer air in the south moving up.

Will be surprised if no Elevated storms occur in this area by morning. 

Screenshot_4.thumb.jpg.656239dbdbd35845a899df58f2ca2c5a.jpg

If this does happen then I have the chance of seeing some distant storms.

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Don’t be disheartened if it’s feeling colder than you expect outside, I learned a lot from those storms in 2014 - it wasn’t overly hot or even significantly warm but elevated storms kicked off out in the channel just like the forecast suggested and just like clockwork.

I always thought elevated storms were considered ‘poor man’s’ thunderstorms because people tend to suggest them as a second-best to surface-based, but I think my top 5 storms were all elevated - particularly the more electrical ones

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

 

Don’t be disheartened if it’s feeling colder than you expect outside, I learned a lot from those storms in 2014 - it wasn’t overly hot or even significantly warm but elevated storms kicked off out in the channel just like the forecast suggested and just like clockwork.

I always thought elevated storms were considered ‘poor man’s’ thunderstorms because people tend to suggest them as a second-best to surface-based, but I think my top 5 storms were all elevated - particularly the more electrical ones

Elevated storms often produce the best lightning. Plus with the added bonus of seeing them miles away because they are elevated.

Edited by StormChaseUK

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I arrive back tomorrow from a very hot oven baked Spain, where all this air is originating from. To note, en route to Spain on Thursday evening, I saw a very potent cell over the Pyrenees north west of Barcelona, which gave storm viewers on the window seats to the right of the plane an absolute treat! Something I have rarely witnessed on a flight, and will hold strong in my memory! 

Back tomorrow into stansted at midday, so I will be very observant of decent cloudscapes from the plane over France and into the U.K. 

a very interesting period of weather coming up, 

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

 

Don’t be disheartened if it’s feeling colder than you expect outside, I learned a lot from those storms in 2014 - it wasn’t overly hot or even significantly warm but elevated storms kicked off out in the channel just like the forecast suggested and just like clockwork.

I always thought elevated storms were considered ‘poor man’s’ thunderstorms because people tend to suggest them as a second-best to surface-based, but I think my top 5 storms were all elevated - particularly the more electrical ones

Yep Tuesday nights elevated storms were perfect, lots of lightning and the over head ones were not to loud, I can't stand loud thunder. 

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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep Tuesday nights elevated storms were perfect, lots of lightning and the over head ones were not to loud, I can't stand loud thunder. 

I love the thunder but the rain does my head in 😄

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Dont be tempted to us any night shooting mode....they often over expose the shot.....I set mine to manual and also turn off the auto focus

What about the ISO,do i set it to the lowest?

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Sferic has just fired off south of Ireland, not sure if error  - source lightningmaps.org

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Just now, StormChaseUK said:

Sferic has just fired off south of Ireland, not sure if error  - source lightningmaps.org

False strike unfortunately.

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Latest from PJB for tonight - doesn’t make great reading chaps/chapettes:

The 17Z Nottingham Ascent shows that there is a very small amount of instability associated with an Elevated Mixed Layer, but it will only allow for some very slight convective growth before running into less unstable air above. The Ascent not conducive to any form of convection initiation and therefore on the basis of this sounding for my forecast i am now cancelling it completely. Thermodynamic profiles totally different in structure to what i was initially expecting to see and far too warm at 500mbs. Essentially fairly frontal with a very small layer of instability.  

Convective Outlook from PJB Cancelled. This one won by Mother Nature who had different ideas to me for today's evolution  

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Just now, Harry said:

Latest from PJB for tonight - doesn’t make great reading chaps/chapettes:

The 17Z Nottingham Ascent shows that there is a very small amount of instability associated with an Elevated Mixed Layer, but it will only allow for some very slight convective growth before running into less unstable air above. The Ascent not conducive to any form of convection initiation and therefore on the basis of this sounding for my forecast i am now cancelling it completely. Thermodynamic profiles totally different in structure to what i was initially expecting to see and far too warm at 500mbs. Essentially fairly frontal with a very small layer of instability.  

Convective Outlook from PJB Cancelled. This one won by Mother Nature who had different ideas to me for today's evolution  

Ergo: it’s all to play for 😛

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1 minute ago, Harry said:

Latest from PJB for tonight - doesn’t make great reading chaps/chapettes:

The 17Z Nottingham Ascent shows that there is a very small amount of instability associated with an Elevated Mixed Layer, but it will only allow for some very slight convective growth before running into less unstable air above. The Ascent not conducive to any form of convection initiation and therefore on the basis of this sounding for my forecast i am now cancelling it completely. Thermodynamic profiles totally different in structure to what i was initially expecting to see and far too warm at 500mbs. Essentially fairly frontal with a very small layer of instability.  

Convective Outlook from PJB Cancelled. This one won by Mother Nature who had different ideas to me for today's evolution  

Does this mean no storms at all anywhere?

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Latest from PJB for tonight - doesn’t make great reading chaps/chapettes:

The 17Z Nottingham Ascent shows that there is a very small amount of instability associated with an Elevated Mixed Layer, but it will only allow for some very slight convective growth before running into less unstable air above. The Ascent not conducive to any form of convection initiation and therefore on the basis of this sounding for my forecast i am now cancelling it completely. Thermodynamic profiles totally different in structure to what i was initially expecting to see and far too warm at 500mbs. Essentially fairly frontal with a very small layer of instability.  

Convective Outlook from PJB Cancelled. This one won by Mother Nature who had different ideas to me for today's evolution  

It's not over until we find out if that makes sense,still early days yet.

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Well at least i'll get a good nights sleep for work tomorrow 🙄

Just typical really, you wait forever to be in a decent risk zone, then it all dwindles away into nothing, the joys of being a storm nut i suppose! 

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's not over until we find out if that makes sense,still early days yet.

I'm waiting till about 1-2am before calling the b word for tonight as it wasn't till after midnight where anything was forecast. If not tomorrow night looks promising 

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