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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Well I did wake to have some very infrequent thunder and lightning around 04:00. I woke at 02:00 for a while also and both times just steady moderate rain.

In fairness to all the forecasters, almost every weather model (apart from the 12z AROME) has a cluster of what look like storms/torrential rain moving over the SE quarter.

The first clue (for me) and I did post something to this effect yesterday afternoon, was the MUCAPE modelling. WRF-NMM for instance (one which I’ve always found reliable in the short term) never showed much at all in the way of instability, apart from Sussex/Kent/EA (on certain runs). Earlier and later modelling delayed the arrival of instability until after the arrival of the heaviest rain, pointing to perhaps a couple of things: 1. The lightning was only ever realistically going to be on the eastern extent of any rainfall event (which a number of forecasts did flag) 2. The models were really struggling to interpret the overall pattern.

I thankfully did go to sleep around 11:30 when the lightning appeared to shifting more eastwards, so did get a decent amount of albeit broken sleep last night (yay).

While I am of course disappointed I am not in the least bit surprised. Fingers crossed for more storms soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Ok, i'll admit, while it wasn't anything REMARKABLE last night, we still got a relatively good thundery period. I can feel the others pain radiating through my laptop, though; I'm really sorry to anyone that traveled a long way last night!

We need a nationwide MCS to make for this, don't we...? Something akin to July 2015, Methinks, as to ensure everyone gets in on the action.

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

So Sunday night was a bust for the main forecast area, and last night was the same!

Once again mother nature proving how difficult it is to forecast thunderstorms! 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
12 minutes ago, P-M said:

I logged on hoping to see some pics and videos of intense storms but surprised to read the comments! 

 

Looks like Scotland was the place to be the last couple of days followed by northern England for storm coverage. Just shows you.  I don't think I'll get excited from now on until the first blob has hit the radar. 

 

a bit IMBY I know but we have seem to have gotten some really big storms here over the last 4 or 5 years when conditions are right as they fire up explosively over the southern uplands, maybe due to the elevation and a boundary between warm and cool air perhaps ? ... 2 inches of rain fell in under an hour in Edinburgh yesterday hence the flash flooding

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Yes I should point out that i'm not having a dig at the forecasters. Their knowledge and expertise is vast - by comparison, I can barely tie my own shoes. There's something modelling isn't picking up though with regards to French storms being absolutely terrified of the English Channel meaning forecasters are handicapped in the first place.

Yes, sometimes (rarely) they do make it across, but the constant eastward shifts and kent-clippers or them dying out over the channel completely despite them being elevated so SST's shouldn't be an issue needs investigating. The models performed poorly yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Some people got very few storms last night, as opposed to many people getting a lot of storms - I used to live in the southeast so I know the feeling all too well. Some great synoptics for organized thunderstorms with fairly dangerous situations wetted the appetite of most of us in here but ultimately what was left behind was a dynamic area of very heavy/torrential rainfall and embedded thunderstorms, something you come to expect in most Summers here in the UK. 

The strangest part for me is that the Sottish borders appeared to have the more potent storms...who would have predicted that? 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I can't wait for the diagnosis on what went "wrong" with last nights storm system. Always a learning experience when situations like this fail to do what was predicted across the models

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

My guess, FWIW, would be that convection is being suppressed by the HP area to the north?

Possibly? It's beyond my pay grade to understand just why it wasn't the severity touted,I would hope the respected such as Nick F may explain when he is around.

A difficult one for forecasters of course when every model pointed to a thundery episode of note.

The point I made earlier and again I would stand corrected,would be was it not possible to ' read between the lines' instead of blindly following model advice? Was there not something 'on the ground' proceeding this event that may have pointed to the explosive parameters touted not  being met?

I would add from a fairly base understanding that I feel the warm front that was widely touted by the models to break up during yesterday morning in terms of precipitation,kept pumping cloud and light rain into the SE throughout the day,I am thinking this reacted negatively for us in terms of storms.

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

I was in South London last night the storms where very disappointing just heavy rain all night no thunder and lightning .

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

A few cells pepping up over Norfolk although there's no sferics just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

The storm woke me up at 3:05am due to a loud piece of thunder, I hanged out my window for some time but it was mostly just heavy rain, there was a couple of lightning around but nothing compared to last week's storms so after about 20mins i went back to bed

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
3 hours ago, Azazel said:

Loooooool England has the most boring and pathetic climate on earth. The only country where storms actively avoid it. After all the hype, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a significant bust.

It was a bit of a let down, it looked like the start of something brilliant as it erupted over France. Just shows you that the weather will do what it wants! 

I don’t think it tops the El-Gordo bust in 2011. That’s probably the most significant bust I’ve ever seen. This one is up there though. We pretty much all got it wrong last night. I’ll hold my hands up to it aswell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
28 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

It was a bit of a let down, it looked like the start of something brilliant as it erupted over France. Just shows you that the weather will do what it wants! 

I don’t think it tops the El-Gordo bust in 2011. That’s probably the most significant bust I’ve ever seen. This one is up there though. We pretty much all got it wrong last night. I’ll hold my hands up to it aswell. 

Ah yes the bust of 2011 was my worst. Sat there in humid 33C heat in Hull hoping for some big storms to pop up only for nothing at all. We ended up with just  a westerly breeze and a rapid drop in temperature. There was also a bad one in 2016 when I remember everyone was watching the radar over the peak district for the first storms to form. There wasn't a single flash of lightning but as soon as the boundary between hot and cool air entered the North Sea it exploded.

This one wasn't a complete bust but the forecast was woeful. I remember someone posted a hatched chart warning of severe storms stretching from Central Southern England to East Anglia. Was there any flashes in that area?

Not sure the rest of this hot spell will see any storms. Saturday sees cooler air rushing in but the angle of attack doesn't look conductive for storms. The best breakdowns are the ones which have a low pressure system in the SW moving over the UK NE'wards following a plume. 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Friday night looks good to me, at least up here. 

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London

It seems a lot of the community here get wrapped up a storm blanket and don't look at the forecasts issued. Metoffice all day yesturday did not show any thunderstorms just very heavy rain.

I am in the M25 area so the map issued late yesturday did not even come close but the same can be said for the metoffice map rain forecast that showed 16-32mm an hour of rain at times but nothing that heavy occured.

Yes metoffice had warnings in place but that warning never increased only updated it's coverage, when looking at the forecasts storms never did appear in a widespread area only a few symbols over the british isles.

It seems unhealthy the way some of the community behave in general. the 50,000 lightning strike map is one clear example, probably didn't see more than 100-200 strikes in the south over the night.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

Metoffice all day yesturday did not show any thunderstorms just very heavy rain

The MetOffice warnings for England were specifically for thunderstorms. Paying attention to apps/automated forecasts in set ups like that are fraught with danger. For example, no heavy rain was showing on website and app forecasts from the MetOffice, for here. Video forecasts with human input did, and sure enough there was heavy rain this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
59 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

It was a bit of a let down, it looked like the start of something brilliant as it erupted over France. Just shows you that the weather will do what it wants! 

I don't think it tops the El-Gordo bust in 2011. That’s probably the most significant bust I’ve ever seen. This one is up there though. We pretty much all got it wrong last night. I’ll hold my hands up to it aswell. 

I don't think anything tops the El Gordo bust for me. I was living in Yorkshire at the time and had driven down to Essex for a night of stormageddon, but there was nothing. At about 5am I gave up and set off home. 2 hours later the place I had been sitting for about 8 hours had a storm. I look back and laugh at it now but at the time it hurt

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: BRIGHTON, EAST SUSSEX and MAIDENHEAD, BERKSHIRE
  • Location: BRIGHTON, EAST SUSSEX and MAIDENHEAD, BERKSHIRE

Guys, there's a few variables we need to consider this year. 

Firstly, the jet stream is still awkwardly positioned in an omega pattern. So, even though warm air is pluming up towards us, we still have low pressure surrounding is which is making our weather still quite volatile. 

Secondly, we haven't had any considerable heating yet. It's only really been 'warm' for the past couple of days. I reckon towards the end of the week when we've had consistent, and significant ground level and atmospheric heating, we will start to see more versatile storms. These storms may even be homegrown for once, instead of relying on systems that travel from the south over the Channel. 

I never expected last night to be anything special, there just hasn't been the conditions to validate any significant storm activity. 

Just my two cents. 

Edited by Superstormuk
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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

Well hi all.

An ocean of pain with one or two high spots.  It's remarkable how many forecasts failed but there we go. It's a learning event instead.

(And as for the Met Office - I really am beginning to take a sharp dislike to the arrogant yellow weather warnings. They should call them "Advisories", toning down the language a bit. - just my opinion.)

One thing will be for sure here, the excitement will build again at the next event and I find that almost as much fun as watching the storms!

One thing I would like to know: did the Ouistreham Beach Hut Cam in France get struck by lightning?!  I checked the feed in slo-mo last night and it sure looks like it took a direct hit.

The image flickered white - the beach is lit up, then the poles right in front of the cam, and finally a complete white-out before the screen goes black. The camera is still down today.

The camera is mounted on scaffold-like poles:

Ouisterham.jpg

Edited by StormLoser
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

A few storms firing off over Norfolk now though. Shame they’re marching off to the N Sea! 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

All it came down to was the issue that we had a trough closing off to form that cut off low over Biscay, the slower it happens the flatter the ridge ahead of it and the more of an easterly component to the steering winds. This also affects the state of the air masses over the south of the UK which also decreased the thundery activity as the hot air from the continent was hindered more than forecast.

Oh well, onto the next event which could be a while for those in the south. Chance of storms in the north on Saturday from that cold front.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Ah yes the bust of 2011 was my worst. Sat there in humid 33C heat in Hull hoping for some big storms to pop up only for nothing at all. We ended up with just  a westerly breeze and a rapid drop in temperature. There was also a bad one in 2016 when I remember everyone was watching the radar over the peak district for the first storms to form. There wasn't a single flash of lightning but as soon as the boundary between hot and cool air entered the North Sea it exploded.

This one wasn't a complete bust but the forecast was woeful. I remember someone posted a hatched chart warning of severe storms stretching from Central Southern England to East Anglia. Was there any flashes in that area?

Not sure the rest of this hot spell will see any storms. Saturday sees cooler air rushing in but the angle of attack doesn't look conductive for storms. The best breakdowns are the ones which have a low pressure system in the SW moving over the UK NE'wards following a plume. 

Possibly July 2016, where it was east Anglia taking the brunt of them as they departed into the N Sea. A few towers went up near stoke and Stafford but collapsed. I think that was the day you’re on about, and then exploded over the east. 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

(Hatch) or (I'm in the Hatch) Is now and banned word from this forum please don't use it ever again as we may be cursed from storms! 

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