Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

25 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Loooooool England has the most boring and pathetic climate on earth. The only country where storms actively avoid it. After all the hype, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a significant bust.

Yet there was electrical activity near the coasts and over land in some of the areas highlighted in the forecast?

Come on yeah it wasn’t stormageddon but for at least a short while we had several thunderstorms knocking on our door

[Thunder and Lightning]

I guess we just have to wait to July or something. For any good stuff.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Well who'd have thought it? Not a sausage (apart from a fake orange one). Even the rain seems embarrassed to be nothing other than....rain. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Even after the Arome went east yesterday it ended up even further east than that and not even making it that far north...

 

This for me is going down as one of the biggest busts to date..

[James1979]

43 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Loooooool England has the most boring and pathetic climate on earth. The only country where storms actively avoid it. After all the hype, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a significant bust.

I have, happens every year without fail since about 2008. Fully expected this crap to materialise as it's the most reliable outcome every year. What a crap and boring climate we have whilst being a few miles from the continent where it all happens. Time for a new hobby or a move abroad lol.

Edited June 25, 2019 by James1979

[Azazel]

For my area, our luck seemed to improve between sort of 2013-2017 and storms actually managed to make the crossing, but it seems to have reverted back to 2007-2012 now where storms just hug the French coastline, terrified to get their feet wet and eventually scrape the Kent coastline.

Nothing really on the horizon either for storm chances despite the desperately humid air over us, this being swept away with a whimper come Sunday. Yawn.

[<<Ryan>>]

4 hours of thunder and lightning - pretty frequent at times, pea sized hail, flooded roads and a medium sized tree down across the road. It wasn't a bust everywhere, though a lot less widespread than first expected. 

Still a few warm months left of the year yet, folks!

Edited June 25, 2019 by <<Ryan>>

[Azazel]

22 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yet there was electrical activity near the coasts and over land in some of the areas highlighted in the forecast?

Come on yeah it wasn’t stormageddon but for at least a short while we had several thunderstorms knocking on our door

Yes there was, but as you say, models and forecasts were showing something a lot more (and I mean A LOT more) substantial impacting the south east. 

Definitely one for the experts to dissect and carry out a post mortem on in the coming days.

[Chris.R]

All I’m going to say is...at least you now all know what it feels like up here 10 times a year. Welcome to the bust party. !

Edited June 25, 2019 by Chris.R

[Farmer Dave]

Definitely wasn't a bust everywhere. I'm not complaining! Lightning was great, thunder really booming

[Norfolk Sheep]

Just now, Farmer Dave said:

Definitely wasn't a bust everywhere. I'm not complaining! Lightning was great, thunder really booming

But again, only just about managing a Kent clipper - so what's going on? 

[SteveB]

Chucking it down here, but that's all, no thunder or lightning.

[Zak M]

How did that end up being a bust? Must be like a storm magnet right now over Kent.

[matty40s]

I also think the mass over the SW Midlands (Malverns and Cotswolds)is getting more organised and larger now. In the last hour that has just grown and grown.

I wouldn't be surprised if electrical activity started soon.

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by matty40s

[seb]

Nothing like last week here in Ashford but a good show either way. It’s feels positively like a Florida morning now.

Had a strike in the field behind the garden with instant loud thunder which woke up the dogs so lots of coffee needed. The strike tripped the main fuse as well grrrr!

[SnowBear]

I actually find this interesting and anyone who really has an interest in the weather and forecasting would now not be moaning about busts and all that but why, what was over-modelled...or more likely in my view...possibly under-modelled. I personally think the strength of the northerly wind undercutting the plume was enough to hold those storms on the French coast long enough for them to essentially burn themselves out in place (and equally possibly under-modelled in it's ability to hold back the heat that was initially forecast for this week).

Forecasting thunderstorms and where they will occur is notoriously difficult, the same goes for hurricanes. Anyone who has done tracking in the USA of either, will know the size of the boxes for tor-warn, storm-warn notifications, hurricane landfall zones and so on which are created when severe storms etc are forecast. Often they are correct, but other times the storms occur completely outside of the warning boxes forecast. We have added complexities here for thunderstorms of water masses such as the English Channel, North Sea and our proximity to a continental land mass. It only takes one small thing to be modelled incorrectly and the storms will be elsewhere, or not happen at all.

It's all about probability. Nothing in storm forecasting is a definite until it's happening right over the area forecast, before hand so many things could alter that outcome.

I find it quite refreshing that despite all we try to do in bettering forecasting and at times thinking we understand the weather better than say ten years ago, that sometimes Mother Nature just does something completely different and shows us who is really boss and puts us back in our place.

Not a bust, the warnings were warranted possibilities, and a great opportunity to learn what caused it to be different than forecast.

[sunnijim]

Every warning called this wrong,be it professional organisations or the more amauter ones often quoted here.

The Monday never felt anything like the pre cursor to storms,suppressed temperatures here on the Sussex coast and occasional light rain,but you trust in the experts and feel the 'goodies' will come in the night!

The level of severity was way off what was expected,a spell of heavy rain for some ( nothing exceptional) and a few rumbles now and then.

Given the level of agreement on warnings it does make me wonder if some of these folk and their weather warning web pages just straight forward copy one another? Surely someone,somewhere could of picked up on the chances of a much lesser event with good meteorological knowledge?

Edited June 25, 2019 by sunnijim

[Guest]

That’s the convective action over for the at least the next 7-10days down here, not that we’ve actually seen any action other than moderate rain....

[markw2680]

If you think it’s a flop you wana try living in the West Midlands, you see all the hope of storms like a week away or so and you no that it will all change as it gets closer. If you live in that middle strip it’s pretty poo in my opinion, I mean we have to travel at least 1 and half hours just to see the sea and even then you’d be lucky lol.

anyway on the next slight chance 

[Tim Bland]

I need to get another hobby or move countries I think 2019 has been terrible for snow / storms. This weeks “Heatwave & Storms” has become “warm and cloudy with occasional rain”

[Supacell]

I guess it only takes the smallest of changes to completely change a storm forecast. To be fair to the forecasters, every model I saw was going for big storms last night. All the forecasters can do is use the models that they have to hand. It is notoriously difficult to forecast storms and last night was particularly complicated. Admittedly I expected more, hence why I made a 400 mile round trip.

Honestly though, I am buzzing right now because I know how easily I could have completely missed out last night. At one point i thought i was going to. Now that would have been a proper bust, around £70 in fuel and a sleepless night for no reward. As it happens I witnessed arguably the best storm in the UK last night which produced some lovely close bolts and sky ripping thunder, not to mention torrential rain and strong winds which temporarily turned the roads to rivers.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Supacell

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Every warning called this wrong,be it professional organisations or the more amauter ones often quoted here.

The Monday never felt anything like the pre cursor to storms,suppressed temperatures here on the Sussex coast and occasional light rain,but you trust in the experts and feel the 'goodies' will come in the night!

The level of severity was way off what was expected,a spell of heavy rain for some ( nothing exceptional) and a few rumbles now and then.

Given the level of agreement on warnings it does make me wonder if some of these folk and their weather warning web pages just straight forward copy one another? Surely someone,somewhere could of picked up on the chances of a much lesser event with good meteorological knowledge?

My guess, FWIW, would be that convection is being suppressed by the HP area to the north?

[Josh Rubio]

I think the best types of storms for us are the homegrown ones, as French imports either always seem to die or they head too far East, with Kent getting all the action. 

[P-M]

I logged on hoping to see some pics and videos of intense storms but surprised to read the comments! 

 

Looks like Scotland was the place to be the last couple of days followed by northern England for storm coverage. Just shows you.  I don't think I'll get excited from now on until the first blob has hit the radar. 

 

[Matthew M]

A friend and I drove from South London to Brighton, and after an hour of nothing happening ended up in some place called Cooden in Bexhill (on the way to Hastings, don't know the area at all) right on the sea front. We were watching the storm over the channel, getting closer and closer until we saw a massive flash and the loudest bang i've ever heared, echoed by the buildings around. The lightning had struck only meters away and we drove out of there very quickly indeed.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Matthew M