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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
9 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Seriously off topic...but if you have any cloves then soften it with a little chew and hold it on the pain if you can. Contains stuff that is mildly anaesthetic and worked for me when I broke a molar. 

I nearly went out of my mind when a tooth extraction went wrong. Had to wait 10 days for another dentist. I swear I barely slept more than an hour at a time for 10 days. When you're looking at a tube of ibuprofen gel (for muscular sprains) and contemplating squirting it in your mouth, you know what toothache is! 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Should do, it's all rather elevated so should cross the channel without issue, it's not one of those events where everything goes bang over France and dies as it crosses the channel.

..hopefully.

dan do you think broadstairs will get some action or is it not worth staying up for over here?

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants
6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Made it to Luton. Can see that storms are crashing away over in France and so fingers crossed I will see a storm tonight. I won't stay here but need to decide which way to go.

If I were you mate I'd personally go to Brighton/Eastbourne. Can't miss the lightning if you're there, surely. Doesn't look like the most intense stuff will head west of there, and perhaps it will shift more north-easterly across the channel and steer more towards Kent, but I think those two spots on the coast are a good bet. Just my opinion. 

Edited by UKSupercell
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Upto 100 strikes a minute in Northern France. Noteworthy 

2A329426-256E-437F-8CFC-2A090E361453.png

That is pretty decent to be fair. Those in Southern or South-Eastern areas of the U.K could be in for a great thundery treat should that area of precipitation hold up well as it shifts North/North-East. ⚡️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
 
 
 
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Should do, it's all rather elevated so should cross the channel without issue, it's not one of those events where everything goes bang over France and dies as it crosses the channel.

..hopefully.

I remember too many of those events, unfortunately.  Fingers crossed though.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Definitely an easterly bias developing already - can hope the steering winds carry the overall system further N and keep activity on the east, but I’m not greatly encouraged.

 

C3C8D598-59BF-4B94-A5EF-839B98E89870.png

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Lightning, Tornado, Hurricane, Heatwave
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire

Bognor Regis Webcam maybe useful later! https://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Mitch perrott said:

dan do you think broadstairs will get some action or is it not worth staying up for over here?

 

Difficult to say, you're a little far east to be hit by the main action but can't rule out storms completely.. it's very much a radar watching situation for you

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
2 minutes ago, Harry said:

This is the 12z Euro4 for what it’s worth 

75F3A457-A707-4CF6-A65C-7CCC9DFCFF49.gif

Well considering the storm is over 50 miles west of the exit point on that model it will head straight over east London.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON-EU 18z at T10, compared with 15z at same time, 15z first:

image.thumb.jpg.a24b378419983638da004fe3cbb20154.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.73e8178dea39bf992e68ff7005a0a264.jpg

A slight shift east?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms followed by snow (preferably on the same day!)
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire

About to set off to Worthing at first and see what happens, good luck everyone!

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Nice amount of back building here. With divergent winds at mid to upper levels this is expected let’s hope this continues as it tracks NNE

41B01CD7-5630-496C-9F1A-26022B2CA7B5.thumb.png.a6d18295ff537c1cf0e627e8df750f38.png

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Interesting on the last couple of radar grabs, the system seems to be expanding quite quickly as it moves into the Channel.  Will it keep its intensity is the question?

 

 

If its not a super cell, hopefully it's a high based mcs cluster. Ps think I can hear it. 

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
3 minutes ago, Harry said:

Definitely an easterly bias developing already - can hope the steering winds carry the overall system further N and keep activity on the east, but I’m not greatly encouraged.

 

C3C8D598-59BF-4B94-A5EF-839B98E89870.png

Might that not just be the size of the thunderstorm expanding rather then changing direction?

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
6 minutes ago, Gord said:

It's the little cell that won't give up. It's ambled slowly this way from the Welsh border and sparked back to life, grown a bit too. Had quite a few rolls of thunder around here now.

I can see the convection from this side of the cell Gord,,,still going

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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

Now watch just north of Rennes burst into action quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: The Port with no sea , Sandwell , West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: The Port with no sea , Sandwell , West Midlands

Sky looks evil !

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Just now, suffolkboy_ said:

Now watch just north of Rennes burst into action quickly.

Yes good spot. Candidate for a secondary focus of activity that could potentially travel very close to Southampton judging by the steering flow.

If that happens alongside the other one crossing London, then all of the models will have been right to some degree or other. How amazing would that be?  

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Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants
5 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

That is pretty decent to be fair. Those in Southern or South-Eastern areas of the U.K could be in for a great thundery treat should that area of precipitation hold up well as it shifts North/North-East. ⚡️ 

It was hitting 140 strikes per min and it lost intensity in this regard and was peaking at 115 per min for a while and now hovering around 85 per min. I've seen French imports that have usually hit Kent only over the years that have had 3, 400 strikes per min at some points. 

Oh down to 65 strikes per min now. What's happening?! 

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
3 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

I can see the convection from this side of the cell Gord,,,still going

Looks like it might be dying down a bit again though. Interesting little cell though.

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
44 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Now if only it could do this ;)

 

image.png

Nah, this is better 

image.png.df93563d9873fa3f4e46e199784d2c8c.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

Where does people get 4am from (I,E LIFT OFF), Imo storms should start rocking se/ea around a hours time and into London at 00:00, we’ll see good luck all.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

See attached between 2100 today until 1200 tomorrow. I would expect storms to follow roughly along the 700hpa flow indicated by black isobars and it seems to be doing that so far.

A bit more difficult to define, but the blue/green lines also indicate potential convective precipitation during the period (from T+0 of the valid model run - in this case the animation starts at T+9, hence showing some over the UK from earlier today)

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

 

untitled.gif

Edited by Chris K
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