Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Look away now - unless you live in Kent of course...

12z AROME fancies a repeat performance of last Tuesday

You can really go off people @staplehurst 

[Boro Snow]

9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Nah sod it i’m going with the BBC forecast and we are going to take a direct hit here in central southern England.

Latest met office video shows that aswell 

[Guest]

The Arome 12Z is incredibly disappointing. Seem almost impossible to get imports west of Brighton. 

[tomp456]

Afternoon all. 

 

I'm thinking of heading down to Worthing Pier later but only if the storms come during the evening hours (would need to catch the bus home, the last one is near midnight) 

and only if Worthing doesn't take a direct hit, and the storms take a more westerly or easterly direction like last week...cos I don't fancy being struck by lightning, on the end of a wooden pier, surrounded by water. 

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Look away now - unless you live in Kent of course...

12z AROME fancies a repeat performance of last Tuesday

Probably a little too far east now..

[Harry]

AROME really slows it down too...which is a shame! Was hoping for some activity around midnight. 

[ancientsolar]

quite a little beast coming out of West of Hereford

[Timannie]

Netweather Radar showing a small cell just about to pass over me now; west of Wrexham, going for a look outside.

 

 

[Chris.R]

Sferics to my South now but think it’s dying.

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

AROME really slows it down too...which is a shame! Was hoping for some activity around midnight. 

Wouldn’t worry at all, look at the radar and you can see that from T0 AROME 12Z has underestimated the extent and intensity of precip over northern/north-western .

[Dangerous55019]

Looks like I’ve got a little storm closing in on me... Near constant distant grumbles of thunder. 

[SarahWxm]

Had about 10-15 rumbles of thunder here in Wrexham. Nice looking on the radar but unsure if it’s coming this way or not. 

EDIT 16.41 Seems to have died off now!

Edited June 24, 2019 by SarahWxm

[Paul]

6 minutes ago, Timannie said:

Netweather Radar showing a small cell just about to pass over me now; west of Wrexham, going for a look outside.

 

 

A few nice isolated cells popping up close to the Eng/Wales border, along with one or two in northern England. All the while southern Scotland and central Scotland is still getting a bit of a battering. Lively day, so far!

 

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

As for later, 12z UKV is maybe a touch (and I mean a touch) further east than the 9z was. 

[Dave Clarke]

New electrified cell to the west of Hereford

Edited June 24, 2019 by Dave Clarke

[Chris.R]

Yep all died

[TJS1998Tom]

Not looking promising at all for us tonight, radar watching should be interesting though for the South 

[SarahWxm]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Yep all died

Just as I was getting all excited, it died! Grr. Still more than I expected today lol

[JoeShmoe]

Flash flooding in west edinburgh this afternoon  , roads and railways underwater and reported lightning damage 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

This thread is becoming a nightmare for reliable forecasts ... almost everyone is saying something that contradicts everyone else.

There are SB storms kicking off across the North and North West, with some additional storms in the midlands. These are NOT related to the risk for overnight.

From what I can gather for that event is that it is expected to be late evening when things start getting exciting across the near continent and the forecast risk zone for severe weather is still what was suggested earlier in the day ie. heaviest storms Brighton/Sussex/West Kent and lesser so either side with more in the way of convective heavy rain to the west and more severe electrical element to the east of this line.

This Mad Cloud Shizzle Will Head north-east into EA and out into the North Sea over time, perhaps weakening gradually as it does so.

Upper steering winds will swing to a more northerly track toward midnight so don’t worry too much about french imports missing us and going for a holiday to Amsterdam instead.

It could all fail to transpire - of course it could - but there is a very good chance we will see something similar to last week, and in a similar area.

Save the B word for 2am and after (provided we haven’t had something by then in the SE) I’d be happy to discuss what went wrong with the forecast...

Until then just enjoy the ride - and stay safe out there!

Good luck everyone

Edited June 24, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[ancientsolar]

keep checking the welsh borders, appears to be a line forming  

[Thunder and Lightning]

3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Not looking promising at all for us tonight, radar watching should be interesting though for the South 

I'm exited for an MCS! probably will be extremely tired tomorrow from all the thunderstorm watching!

[Mapantz]

Turned out nice.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Turned out nice.

That HDR broke my monitor 

[slb97]

Thinking about heading to Worthing tonight but not sure what time to set off, probably about 10 ish. Could travel further but hoping I won’t have to

[Josh Rubio]

I refuse to accept that this will be another Kent Clipper type scenario, with the models changing all the time. I think the best thing to do is to just watch the radar and see what happens. 

 

That big band of precipitation near Guernsey looks to be heading in a N/NNE direction, and is set to hit roughly the West and also the Midlands. I think there could be one or two surprises from this if and when it reaches here. 

 

Its finally brightening up here somewhat too..