Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[A.J]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just going by the 12Z, i'd either get myself to somewhere between Bognor and Eastbourne, or if you didn't want to go down that far, perhaps somewhere between Hertfordshire and Essex?!

I was going to say the opposite.. lol
The good thing about the UKV is, each run starts with current observations and runs 8 times a day. It's just these are dreadful synoptics for pinning anything down.

the trend is too far east for me though mate.....looking at the steering flows, I need more of a northerly component, looking for storms to fire west of Rennes (more towards Brest)......certainly the eastern flank looks far tastier with plenty of energy to sustain during the night........I'm going for the 'hope I'm pleasantly surprised' mode tonight, hence the banning of looking at the radar (we'll see how long that lasts...lol)

Edited June 24, 2019 by A.J

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Not liking these incremental shifts - I'm desperately hoping I'm not going to be on the western fringes under torrential rain and getting occasional flickers from the eastern edge. 

Naturally, I'm hoping even more so that we get storms at all....

I wouldn't worry too much.

My intent on posting what is being shown by that model is just to give another perspective that the majority cannot see. I expect the evolution will not be that straightforward, but interesting nonetheless.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

Thanks for that. I would be willing to go as far as the south coast but I may not need to.

I'm almost tempted to drive down to Brighton..

[stripeyfox]

1 minute ago, staplehurst said:

Very jealous, it's reached 28C in our office so far with condensation on all cold surfaces (such as water bottles). Outside peaked at 26C with a dew point of 20C, which is quite impressive for UK standards. Not pleasant to work in though!

when I say air conditioned, it keeps it at a reasonably comfortable level. But all the women in the office complain that it is freezing (it isn't) and then switch it off, or turn it up.

 

I still have a fan for my own comfort but the girls are walking round with fleeces and hot water bottles (no joke - really) as well as until recently having electric heaters under the desk (got banned by H&S a couple of weeks ago).

It's crazy!
 

[StormChaseUK]

5 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I think they mean, why those areas?

The western area will be the nocturnal cooling aided by the boost of warm area rising then falling rapidly around the SE MCS

When air rises and falls rapidly around thunderstorms it has the affect of popping off other storms around it. 

Edited June 24, 2019 by StormChaseUK

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't worry too much.

My intent on posting what is being shown by that model is just to give another perspective that the majority cannot see. I expect the evolution will not be that straightforward, but interesting nonetheless.

a moderator perk?......damn I should ask for back pay...lolol

[Josh Rubio]

So seeing as there’s potentially two areas of interest - to the West and also to the East and SE, what’s it looking like for Central areas? 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, A.J said:

the trend is too far east for me though mate.....looking at the steering flows, I need more of a northerly component, looking for storms to fire west of Rennes (more towards Brest)......certainly the eastern flank looks far tastier with plenty of energy to sustain during the night........I'm going for the 'hope I'm pleasantly surprised' mode tonight, hence the banning of looking at the radar (we'll see how long that lasts...lol)

Agreed, however in that location currently the environment is not favorable IMO. I just see a lot of cloud and moderate rain to be honest anywhere west of Eastbourne. 

[Sparkiee storm]

Don't the strong DLS help lightning to be triggered too, or don't it just keep them alive for longer?

[weirpig]

Icon showing a very intense band of rain migrating through the country  western edge somewhere around the east Midlands   then transferring through into the north sea   another area of activity further west through the spine of the country Tuesday morning  

Edited June 24, 2019 by weirpig

[Supacell]

11 minutes ago, A.J said:

a moderator perk?......damn I should ask for back pay...lolol

I haven't access to UKV so I don't think it is anything to do with being a Netweather mod. If it is, then I have been missing out 

[Snowyowl9]

TCU developing to the west here only real hope this afternoon a few late home grown.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Snowyowl9

[Harry]

Not sure if this has been posted yet (apologies if so).

PJB on UKWW upped his forecast further to a VERY HIGH (90%) risk 

The 11Z Trappes Ascent is highly unstable given some surface based convergence and confluence. Modifying the ascent to a temp of 30C which is the Convection Trigger Temp, indicates nearly 3,000 j/kg of Most Unstable Energy (MUCAPE) that can be released. Given temps are approaching this level and will likely reach the level this afternoon, we can expect very rapid growth of Thunderstorms to the West of Paris this afternoon in the area already depicted on my earlier forecast. This area having the most energy and even slightly cooler aloft. Supercells and Multicells are likely and once routed from the surface initiation will be routed to the 850mb/900mb level. Hail Indicators and Tornado Indicators are high enough for SEVERE Storms to be generated with Medium to Large Hail and risk of Tornado development across N France and then across the SE of England. (Low Risk Tornado) Main risk will be from Very strong gusts associated with Supercell development as the storms move NE. Convective Gusts to 40/50Knts possible even inland during the evening. The Tropopause is at 40,000 ft, given overshooting is highly probable given the very huge quantities of energy which will need to be released storms are going to be punching higher, expect tops to 42,000 ft or over -60C as they move NNE across the SE this evening. 

The large amount of energy at the 850/900mb (routing level and storm motion level) in terms of moisture and temperature will be enough to carry the storms across the Channel into the SE of England and across London and into East Anglia. 

RISK NOW UPGRADED TO VERY HIGH at 90% (Sferics at 50,000 strikes may be an understatement

Credit: PJB on UKWW

[matt111]

So tonight will be another night of having 100 tabs open with the radar, lightingmaps, this forum and a load of webcams while maybe looking out the window if anything gets close enough. 

[Azazel]

Nah sod it i’m going with the BBC forecast and we are going to take a direct hit here in central southern England.

[StormChaseUK]

Just now, matt111 said:

So tonight will be another night of having 100 tabs open with the radar, lightingmaps, this forum and a load of webcams while maybe looking out the window if anything gets close enough. 

Yup Dover and French webcams will be busy tonight lol

[StormChaseUK]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Nah sod it i’m going with the BBC forecast and we are going to take a direct hit here in central southern England.

[Selliso]

Punchy little radar return near Hay-on-Wye just popped up

[BlueHedgehog074]

The cloud seems to be somewhat losing its power here with some brightness trying to filter through the thinner parts of the grey, white, sheet! Feeling doubtful, though, that the Solihull Storm Shield will become vaporised tonight/early tomorrow morning. Probably be a bit too far West, but best to see what happens first! 

Edited June 24, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Sparkiee storm]

Some activity re initiated in France and some odd bits on radar on the Wales/Midlands border.

Edit - Odd bits have turned into something more nasty looking.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Sparkiee storm

[staplehurst]

Look away now - unless you live in Kent of course...

12z AROME fancies a repeat performance of last Tuesday

[Midlander]

Arome 12Z under-representing the precip in north western / northern  at the moment. As ever radar now should be used over the models.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

possibly related to the storm that hit here, just to my north east

and just a 5 minute walk from where I am *warning strong language* *not my video or tweets*

32 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

WOW what a storm! I have never seen rain that intense closest would be the July 2015 storm, went from nothing to gutters overflowing in seconds, almost certain there will be local flooding, also a definite wind shift in the middle so not sure if some rotation, I will try and upload vids to my YouTube later, I was right under the purple on radar, some lightning and gunshot thunder too.

just happened again as a 2nd storm moves through, rainfall only slightly less intense and no thunder or lightning but certainly wont help the flooding problems

 

[Midlander]

Just now, staplehurst said:

Look away now - unless you live in Kent of course...

12z AROME fancies a repeat performance of last Tuesday

Yes definitely has been ‘downgraded’.

[StormChaseUK]

That warmth and humidity now popping off cell near the Hay hills, Powys/Herefordshire